By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

As the trade war between the U.S. and China escalates, with the latter raising tariffs on the former from 84% to 125% this morning, bitcoin (BTC) and the wider cryptocurrency market appear relatively unfazed.

Bitcoin is down a mere 0.15% over the last 24 hours, and China’s recent escalation hasn’t stopped its ongoing recovery. The cryptocurrency is now trading above $82,000. The wider crypto market, measured by the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, is stable with similar performance.

The same can’t be said about other assets. Gold rose to a new $3,227.5 record making Tether’s XAUT — a gold-backed cryptocurrency — the top-performing digital asset. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dropped below 100 after enduring its biggest drop since 2022. At the same time, the yield on 10-year Treasuries kept rising to now stand near 4.4%.

“The question of a potential dollar confidence crisis has now been definitively answered — we are experiencing one in full force,” ING strategists, including Francesco Pesole wrote in a note reported on by The Telegraph.

Inflation in the U.S. actually declined at the headline level last month, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to resume cutting rates at its next meeting. Still, the market may have interpreted the lower figures as potentially waning demand, deepening the crisis.

That “confidence crisis” is seemingly seeing every asset gain against the dollar, except crypto. Bitcoin investors realized losses of up to $250 million over 6-hour windows during the recent drop, according to Glassnode, which points out that “realized losses are shrinking – suggesting early signs of seller exhaustion.” Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
• Macro
  • April 11, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases March producer price inflation data.
    • Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. -0.1%
    • Core PPI YoY Est. 3.6% vs. Prev. 3.4%
    • PPI MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0%
    • PPI YoY Est. 3.3% vs. Prev. 3.2%
  • April 11, 12:01 p.m.: China’s tariff on imported goods originating from the U.S. will increase from 84% to 125%.
  • April 14: Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele will join U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House for an official working visit.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • April 22: Tesla (TSLA), post-market
  • April 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Spartan Council is voting on increasing the liquidation ratio for SNX solo stakers, with an initial increase to 250% on April 11, to 500% on April 18, and “high enough to deprecate solo SNX staking” on April 21. Voting ends on April 19.
  • Lido DAO is discussing onboarding credit delegation protocol Twyne into the Lido Alliance. Twyne aims to expand stETH’s use cases, while it’s requesting strategic endorsement, promotional support and technical guidance from Lido.
  • GMX DAO is discussing the deployment of GMX V2 Botanix’s Spiderchain, which it describes as being “positioned as the first bitcoin Layer 2 designed to unlock bitcoin DeFi.”
  • April 11, 9 a.m.: Lombard is holding an X Spaces session on Institutional Bitcoin Staking Partnership.
  • April 11, 12 p.m.: Avalanche to hold a call on Revolutionizing Blockchain Privacy with Encrypted Tokens.
  • April 11, 3 p.m.: Zcash to host a town hall on lockbox distribution & governance.
  • April 14, 10 a.m.: Stacks to host a livestream with recent announcements from the project.
• Unlocks
  • April 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.87% of its circulating supply worth $53.83 million.
  • April 12: Axie Infinity (AXS) to unlock 5.68% of its circulating supply worth $21.82 million.
  • April 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 4.37% of its circulating supply worth $16.69 million.
  • April 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.01% of its circulating supply worth $27.12 million.
  • April 18: Official Trump (TRUMP) to unlock 20.25% of its circulating supply worth $326.78 million.
  • April 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.65% of its circulating supply worth $80.6 million.
• Token Launches
  • April 11: Tether Gold (XAUT) to be listed on Bybit.
  • April 14: KernelDAO (KERNEL) to be listed on Binance, Gate.io, LBank, KuCoin, MEXC, and others.
  • April 16: Badger (BADGER), Balacner (BAL), Beta Finance (BETA), Cortex (CTXC), Cream Finance (CREAM), Firo (FIRO), Kava Lend (KAVA), NULS (NULS), Prosper (PROS), Status (SNT), TROY (TROY), UniLend Finance (UFT), VIDT DAO (VIDT), and aelf (ELF) to be delisted from Binance.
  • April 22: Hyperlane to airdrop its HYPER tokens.

Conferences:

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa and Oliver Knight

• A stablecoin (sUSD) tied to decentralized derivatives exchange Synthetix suffered a depeg on Friday, tumbling down to $0.86. The depeg stemmed from a governance proposal named SIP-420, which involved shifting Synthetix from individual staking to pooled staking.
• The proposal meant that 2.5 times more sUSD would be minted per staked synthetix (SNX) token, but it also meant that stakers had no incentive to buy sUSD as all debt sat on the staking pool as opposed to individual wallets.
• The Synthetix team said on Discord that it will “continue to increase incentives for Curve pools,” and that “the sUSD peg is critical. “An MEV (Miner Extractable Value) bot named “Yoink” exploited weaknesses in Wayfinder’s PROMPT token airdrop, using a front-running strategy (reordering transactions to jump ahead of legitimate claims) to steal approximately 119 ETH (or $200,000 at current prices) from Kaito users. Onchain data shows the bot swapped claimed tokens for ETH, draining funds until the airdrop was paused.
• Wayfinder, an AI blockchain project, launched the PROMPT token airdrop for users who staked PRIME (Echelon Prime’s governance token) or earned “Yaps” on Kaito, a platform that analyzes social media for crypto insights. The bot targeted Kaito “Yappers” who completed social missions, with TokenTable halting claims to fix the issue and promising user compensation.
• MEV attacks, where malicious actors manipulate Ethereum transaction ordering for profit, are increasingly sophisticated with AI-driven bots like Yoink. TokenTable confirmed the smart contract’s security, is addressing failed transactions, and will provide a detailed report once the claim process resumes.

Derivatives Positioning

• On most exchanges, notional open interest in BTC futures has increased more than the cryptocurrency’s price in the past 24 hours, suggesting an influx of new money as the market looks to carve out a bottom.
• A similar pattern is seen in SOL and DOGE futures, while traders remain cautious in the ETH and XRP futures markets.
• Funding rates for the top 25 coins remain between 0% to 10%, suggesting cautiously bullish sentiment.
• BTC’s options-based implied volatility term structure has normalized, while ETH’s remains in backwardation, indicating fears of outsized price volatility in the short term.
• Flows have been mixed on Deribit, with call spreads booked in BTC and SOL put rolling via OTC platform Paradigm.

Market Movements:

• BTC is unchanged from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $82,013.36 (24hrs: +0.81%)
• ETH is up 1.9% at $1,559.54 (24hrs: +5.22%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 3.43% at 2,379.04 (24hrs: +0.64%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 17 bps at 3.4%
• BTC funding rate is at -0.0018% (-2.0049% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is down 1.1% at 99.75
• Gold is up 2.51% at $3,234.50/oz
• Silver is up 1.79% at $31.22/oz
• Nikkei 225 closed -2.96% at 33,585.58
• Hang Seng closed +1.13% at 20,914.69
• FTSE is down 0.51% at 7,872.98
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.72% at 4,736.11
• DJIA closed on Thursday -2.5% at 39,593.66
• S&P 500 closed -3.46% at 5,268.05
• Nasdaq closed -4.31% at 16,387.31
• S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -3% at 23,014.90
• S&P 40 Latin America closed -3.2% at 2,255.64
• U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 4 bps at 4.4%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.38% at 5,281.75
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.44% at 18,403.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.4% at 39,637.00

Bitcoin Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 63.55 (0.50%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.01898 (-0.78%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 901 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $42.4
• Total Fees: 5.2 BTC / $424,070
• CME Futures Open Interest: 129,830
• BTC priced in gold: 25.5/oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 7.24

Technical Analysis

• BTC’s 30-day momentum indicator, measuring the rate of change in prices over four weeks, has recently turned up, diverging from the weakness in prices.
• The indicator’s divergence, coupled with Wednesday’s bullish outside day candle, suggests the path of least resistance is to the higher side.
• A potential move past the descending trendline would open doors to resistance at $88,000 (the late March high), followed by $92,000, which acted as strong support early this year.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $272.34 (-8.26%), up 4.48% at $284.54 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $169.62 (-4.22%), up 2.46% at $173.80
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$14.35 (-5.53%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.74 (-4.63%), up 4.17% at $12.23
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $6.79 (-7.99%), up 2.65% at $6.97
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $6.82 (-9.19%), up 2.79% at $7.01
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.13 (-6.55%), up 3.51% at $7.38
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $12.01 (-8.04%), up 4.08% at $12.50
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $32.63 (-7.2%), up 4.17% at $33.99
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $41.07 (-4.80%), down 0.41% at $40.90

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Daily net flow: -$149.5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $35.46 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.10 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: -$38.8 million
• Cumulative net flows: $2.32 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.37 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• As the U.S.-China trade war escalates, analysts anticipate that Beijing will devalue the yuan to counter Trump’s tariffs, potentially leading to a capital flight into bitcoin.
• Options market, however, shows no signs of hedging downside risks in yuan in anticipation of a major devaluation.
• The 25-delta risk reversal for the USD/CNH was slightly above 1, representing a moderate bias for calls that would protect from yuan devaluation. Higher values were observed ahead of the previous yuan devaluation episodes of 2015 and 2016, according to The Brookings Institution’s Senior Fellow Robin Brooks.

While You Were Sleeping

• S&P 500 More Volatile Than Bitcoin as U.S. Assets Lose Investor Favor (CoinDesk): Since Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement, S&P 500 volatility has surged from 50% to 169% annualized, the highest since the 2020 COVID crash, according to TradingView.
• Gold Rally Makes Tether’s XAUT Top-Performing Digital Asset as Crypto Markets Remain Flat (CoinDesk): XAUT gained over 3% in 24 hours as crypto traders rotated into gold-backed tokens amid concerns over the U.S. budget deficit and unpredictable policy from the White House.
• Ripple and SEC File Joint Motion to Pause Appeals (CoinDesk): The two parties reached an agreement in principle to resolve all remaining issues, including appeals and claims involving Ripple founders Garlinghouse and Larsen, according to attorney James Filan.
• Bitcoin’s Recent Drawdown Proves Its More Than Just a Leveraged Tech Play (CoinDesk): Bitcoin’s three-month decline is milder than in 2021–22, signaling greater stability, and ranks mid-pack among tech peers, outperforming Tesla and NVIDIA and matching Apple, Meta and Amazon.
• Gold Bolts Past Key $3,200 Mark on Dollar Slide, Safe-Haven Flows (Reuters): Investor rotation out of U.S. stocks and Treasuries on tariff fears is pressuring the dollar and driving global demand for gold, according to Tastylive’s head of global macro.
• BOJ’s Retreat From Bond Buying Spurs Bid to Lure Foreigners (Bloomberg): Officials are pitching Japanese bonds abroad more aggressively as domestic demand wanes, stressing stronger yields, streamlined trading access, and a steady economic outlook to attract new buyers.
• China Unlikely To Aggressively Devalue Yuan to Offset Impact of U.S. Tariffs, Economists Say (CNBC): Analysts expect China to rely on stimulus and gradual yuan weakening to steady markets, warning that sharp moves risk triggering capital flight like in 2015 and broader financial instability.

In the Ether

By James Van Straten and Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

One thing markets despise is uncertainty, and right now it’s coming from all corners of the globe, largely fueled by Trump’s tariffs.

Markets rebounded somewhat on Tuesday following Monday’s bloodbath in Asia and Europe, but it was more of a relief rally than a true recovery. At the heart of the conflict are the U.S. and China, both refusing to be the first to blink — even if it means prolonged uncertainty and pain for global markets.

As markets took a breather from the turmoil, crypto skeptics were quick to point out how bitcoin’s (BTC) safe haven narrative — bolstered by its resilience late last week — quickly unraveled on Monday when the price crashed to $75,000.

While that’s true, expecting the bitcoin price to remain unaffected was overly optimistic. During crises investors historically rush to cash, liquidating even traditional havens investments such as gold. Monday was no exception. Still, bitcoin has shown lower beta than U.S. equities since the tariff announcement.

In the bigger picture, bitcoin is holding up fairly well. The Nasdaq is down over 22% from its all-time high, while bitcoin is off by 28%. In previous episodes — like the yen carry-trade unwind in August 2024 or the COVID crash in March 2020 — bitcoin suffered far deeper relative losses.

Since the New York market closed on Wednesday, BTC has declined 8.4%, outperforming the S&P 500’s 10% drop and the Nasdaq’s 11% fall.

“What matters is that BTC’s beta to broader risk assets appears meaningfully lower in this sell-off than in previous ones. This suggests a growing recognition of bitcoin’s potential role as a non-sovereign store of value during periods of economic stress,” David Lawant, head of research at FalconX, said in an email.

Monday’s trading session also included an episode of “short-term madness” driven by false reports about a 90-day tariff delay. The markets spiked and then promptly crashed back down after the reports were refuted. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
• Macro
  • April 9, 12:01 a.m.: The Trump administration’s higher individualized tariffs on imports from top U.S. trade deficit countries take effect.
  • April 9, 8:00 a.m.: Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) releases March consumer price inflation data.
    • Core Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.48%
    • Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 3.65%
    • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.28%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 3.77%
  • April 9, 12:01 p.m.: China’s 34% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports take effect.
  • April 9, 2:00 p.m.: The Fed releases minutes of the FOMC meeting held March 18-19.
  • April 9. 8, 9:30 p.m.: China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releases March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
    • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. -0.2%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 0% vs. Prev. -0.7%
    • PPI YoY Est. -2.3% vs. Prev. -2.2%
  • April 10, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Senate Banking Committee hearing on the nomination of Michelle Bowman as Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision. Livestream link.
  • April 14: Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele will join U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House for an official working visit.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
• Unlocks
  • April 8: Tensor (TNSR) to unlock 35.96% of its circulating supply worth $14.44 million.
  • April 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $15.84 million.
  • April 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.87% of its circulating supply worth $51.01 million.
  • April 12: Axie Infinity (AXS) to unlock 5.68% of its circulating supply worth $21.18 million.
  • April 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 4.37% of its circulating supply worth $15.79 million.
  • April 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.01% of its circulating supply worth $25.22 million.
• Token Listings

Conferences

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• Fartcoin (FART) jumped 30% to extend monthly gains over 130%.
• The absurdly-named token extended a multiday run the broader crypto market staged a relief rally, displaying signs of steady buying demand from traders.
• Speculators keep an eye on continual strength in memecoins, especially when they tend to buck market trends, because the tokens tend to jump higher after a sell-off in the market. This can create possible profit opportunities for short-term traders, with some eyeing a move higher for the token in coming weeks.

• FART, among some crypto circles, is a symbol of the absurd and a light-hearted rebellion against the grim financial forecasts. It holds no intrinsic value, but enjoys a cult following — possibly driving buying demand even as the market falls.

Derivatives Positioning

• Bitcoin CME futures basis is holding firm above an annualized 5% amid the macro turmoil.
• CME options skew, however, is showing bias for downside protection, or puts.
• Together, both metrics show cautious sentiment without signaling panic, according to Thomas Erdösi, head of product at CF Benchmarks.
• On Deribit, BTC and ETH put biases have moderated, but BTC implied volatility term structure remains in backwardation, indicating persistent fears of wild price swings in the short-term.
• In BTC options, the $70K put is now the most popular strike, boasting a notional open interest of $957 million. That’s a 180-degree shift from the bias for $100K-$120K strike calls early this year.
• Most of the top 25 coins, excluding TRX, HBAR, LINK and DOT, have seen a drop in perpetual futures open interest in the past 24 hours.

Market Movements

• BTC is unchanged from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $78,894.34 (24hrs: +2.61%)
• ETH is down 0.32% at $1,514.40 (24hrs: +5.22%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 0.8% at 2,268.01 (24hrs: +4.76%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 77 bps at 3.69%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0049% (5.3118% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is unchanged at 103.32
• Gold is up 2.19% at $3015.9/oz
• Silver is up 1.9% at $30.07/oz
• Nikkei 225 closed +6.03% at 33,012.58
• Hang Seng closed +1.51% at 20,127.68
• FTSE is up 2.1% at 7,863.79
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.36% at 4,719.66
• DJIA closed on Monday -0.91% at 37,965.60
• S&P 500 closed -0.23% at 5,062.25
• Nasdaq closed +0.1% at 15,603.26
• S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -1.44% at 22,859.50
• S&P 40 Latin America closed -2.94% at 2,227.14
• U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 2 bps at 4.16%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 1.58% at 5,178.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 1.35% at 17,799.50
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 2% at 38,930.00

Bitcoin Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 63.46 (-0.11%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.01980 (0.97%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 902 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $40.50
• Total Fees: 6.59BTC / $510,645
• CME Futures Open Interest: 137,695 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 26.2 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 7.43%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows monthly activity in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield since the 1980s.
• While the crypto community is hoping for a return to the zero-yield era, the chart suggests otherwise, revealing a long-term bullish shift in rates.
• The trend change is evident from the key 50-, 100- and 200-month simple moving averages — which are aligned bullishly one above the other for the first time since the 1980s.
• Elevated rates might be the new normal.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $268.14 (-8.67%), up 1.47% at $272.09 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $157.28 (-2.04%), up 1.72% at $159.98
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$12.34 (-8.8%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.26 (-0.35%), up 2.04% at $11.49
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.11 (-0.42%), up 0.28% at $7.13
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $7.02 (-2.23%), up 1.85% at $7.15
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.43 (+1.5%), up 0.67% at $7.48
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $12.41 (+0.73%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $34.15 (0.89%), down 1.02% at $33.80
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $41.84 (-6.25%), down 5.16% at $39.68

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Daily net flow: -$103.9 million
• Cumulative net flows: $36.07 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.11 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: $0.0
• Cumulative net flows: $2.38 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.37 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The chart by CryptoQuant shows daily net flow of BTC from wallets linked with miners.
• On Monday, these wallets registered a cumulative net outflow of 1,627 BTC, the most since Dec. 24.
• According to Bloomberg, the Trump tariffs have disrupted the bitcoin mining industry.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Macroeconomic factors continue to drive bitcoin’s (BTC) short-term price volatility as it holds steady above $80,000, with a wave of significant news emerging over the past 24 hours.

Still, there’s a risk-off feeling in the air as the divergence between bitcoin and the broader crypto market grows. Bitcoin dominance has surged to 62%, approaching a year-to-date high, while the ether-to-bitcoin (ETH-BTC) ratio has turned negative on a four-year compound annual basis, meaning ETH is underperforming.

Meanwhile, Trump’s trade wars persist as another concern reining in optimism in the market. That’s not just with Canada, but also in the form of metal tariffs, prompting retaliatory measures from the European Union.

One of the most intriguing developments comes from Canada, where newly appointed Prime Minister Mark Carney has filed to sell U.S. dollar bonds. While the size of the sale remains undisclosed, it’s worth noting the country is the sixth-largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, possessing $379 billion as of the end of 2024. If the sale proceeds, it could put upward pressure on yields, which is the opposite of what Trump wants.

The Treasury yield narrative is paramount because roughly $9 trillion worth of U.S. debt is set to mature or require refinancing this year alone. This is one of the key reasons why the U.S. administration is eager to bring down Treasury yields.

More immediately, market attention is turning to today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, with risk-asset bulls hoping for a softer inflation print. The S&P 500 is hovering around correction territory, down nearly 10%. If inflation comes in hotter than expected, risk assets could face further downside. Stay Alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
• Macro
  • March 12, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases February consumer price inflation data.
    • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 1.3% vs. Prev. 0.16%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 5% vs. Prev. 4.56%
  • March 12, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases February consumer price inflation data.
    • Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4%
    • Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.2% vs. Prev. 3.3%
    • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.5%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 3%
  • March 12, 9:45 a.m.: The Bank of Canada announces its interest-rate decision followed by a press conference (livestream link) 45 minutes later.
    • Policy Interest Rate Est. 2.75% vs. Prev. 3%
  • March 12, 12:00 p.m.: Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service releases February consumer price inflation data.
    • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.8% vs. Prev. 1.2%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 10.1% vs. Prev. 9.9%
  • March 13, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases February producer price inflation data.
    • Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • Core PPI YoY Est. 3.6% vs. Prev. 3.6%
    • PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4%
    • PPI YoY Est. 3.3% vs. Prev. 3.5%
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • March 12 (TBC): TeraWulf (WULF), $-0.03
  • March 14: Bit Digital (BTBT), pre-market, $-0.05
  • March 24 (TBC): Galaxy Digital Holdings (TSE: GLXY), C$0.38

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
• Unlocks
  • March 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.93% of circulating supply worth $58.26 million.
  • March 14: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 2.33% of its circulating supply worth $10.67 million.
  • March 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.19% of its circulating supply worth $10.35 million.
  • March 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.1% of its circulating supply worth $31.53 million.
  • March 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.66% of its circulating supply worth $79.60 million.
  • March 21: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.39% of circulating supply worth $12.70 million.
• Token Listings
  • March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.

Conferences

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• The freshly issued BMT tokens of Bubblemaps, a crypto transparency and on-chain analysis tool, are down more than 50% since going live on Tuesday.
• Bubblemaps uses clustering to group wallet addresses into bubbles, revealing whale concentrations, insider control or suspicious patterns (e.g. a deployer with 76% of supply), helping investors assess risks through visual ownership maps.
• BMT can be used to access an “Intel Desk” for community-driven scam investigations and premium analytics features, and participate in governance.
• People are slamming BMT for a nearly 90% supply concentration in one wallet, a mintable contract risking inflation, an elitist airdrop excluding many, and unlocked liquidity raising rug-pull fears, which is rather ironic for a transparency-focused project.

Derivatives Positioning

• Cumulative open interest in ETH standard and perpetual futures has risen to 9.75 million ETH, the highest since Feb. 3. The count has increased from 8.4 million ETH four weeks ago, which shows traders have been selling into the falling market.
• Open interest in BTC perp and standard futures remains light, with funding rates marginally positive. SOL, ADA, TRX and LINK still see negative perpetual funding rates.
• Deribit-listed BTC and ETH options continue to exhibit a bias for puts out to May expiry, with meaningful constructive outlook for calls emerging from the third quarter.
• Overnight block flows featured selling higher strike BTC and ETH calls and purchase of short-tenor puts.

Market Movements:

• BTC is down 0.55% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $82,577.14 (24hrs: +0.87%)
• ETH is down 2.6% at $1,892.41 (24hrs: -1.58%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 1% at 2,556.70 (24hrs: +0.52%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 32 bps at 3.43%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.007% (2.54% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.31% at 103.52
• Gold is unchanged at $2,914.29/oz
• Silver is up 0.69% at $33.01/oz
• Nikkei 225 closed unchanged at 36,819.09
• Hang Seng closed -0.76 at 23,600.31
• FTSE is up 0.43% at 8,532.17
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.19% at 5,373.08
• DJIA closed on Tuesday -1.14% at 41,433.48
• S&P 500 closed -0.76% at 5,572.07
• Nasdaq closed -0.18% at 17,436.10
• S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.54% at 24,248.20
• S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.44% at 2,307.52
• U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is unchanged at 4.28%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.54% at 5,607.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.67% at 19,529.25
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.37% at 41,627.00

Bitcoin Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 62.13 (-0.16%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02290 (-0.06%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 815 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $46.1
• Total Fees: 6.03 BTC / $490,764
• CME Futures Open Interest: 142,725 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 28.3 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 8.04%

Technical Analysis

• The dollar index, which represents the greenback’s exchange rate against a basket of fiat currencies, has dropped below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support of the late September to January rally.
• The breakdown means a potential soft U.S. CPI release could easily send the index sliding to 102.31, the 78.6% retracement support.
• A deeper slide in the dollar could bode well for risk assets, including BTC.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $260.59 (+8.91%), down 0.58% at $259.09 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $191.69 (+6.95%), unchanged in pre-market
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$17.27 (-1.09%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $13.32 (-0.67%), down 0.68% at $13.23
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.72 (+2.12%), down 0.26% at $7.70
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.63 (+7.74%), down 0.46% at $8.59
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.26 (+3.51%), down 0.73% at $8.20
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $15.08 (+4.14%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $32.80 (+0.18%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $24.50 (-0.41%), up 0.94% at $24.73

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Daily net flow: -$371 million
• Cumulative net flows: $35.47 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1,121 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: -$21.6 million
• Cumulative net flows: $2.66 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.571 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The chart shows daily trading volume on Hyperliquid, the leading perpetual-focused decentralized exchange.
• Despite the market swoon, volumes have held remarkably steady, contrasting the sharp slowdown on other avenues like Solana’s Raydium.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether