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‘Very Dubious’ Speculation Suggests Bitcoin Could Follow Nasdaq ETF Rallies of 1999: Benjamin Cowen

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Benjamin Cowen is saying that the price action of Bitcoin (BTC) could mirror that of the Nasdaq exchange-traded fund (ETF) Invesco QQQ during the first 13 months that followed its launch about 26 years ago.

In a new video, Cowen tells his 855,000 YouTube subscribers that the QQQ ETF hit a local top after going up by 150% in roughly one year following the launch of the ETF.

The QQQ ETF tracks the performance of the 100 largest non-financial firms listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange.

As the flagship digital asset approaches the first anniversary since the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETF, Cowen says the crypto king could replicate similar price action, though it’s unlikely to “play out the exact same way.”

“In 1999 the QQQ ETF launched in March and it rallied from around $48 to $120. And that Rally from $48 to $120 took about 54 weeks – $48 to $120…

…if you look at Bitcoin’s ETF, it launched at around $48,000… if you look at the launch of the spot ETF for Bitcoin it wicked up to $48,000 instead of down to it like it did with the QQQ [ETF]. But interestingly enough, 54 weeks later is January 20th – Inauguration Day [of President-elect Donald Trump], which is interesting because 54 weeks after this launch of the QQQ, it was 54 weeks later the QQQ went from like $48 to $120.

Now look at this, if you go to Bitcoin on the daily time frame and you connect these highs here [$99,600, $104,100 and $108,200] and you just extend that out what’s fascinating is if you grab the sort of a price label and you go over to January 20th and go up to this trend line it would put you at $120,000 which is exactly what the QQQ did – it went from $48 to $120, 54 weeks later.”

Source: Benjamin Cowen/YouTube

Cowen says that if Bitcoin’s price action closely follows that of the QQQ ETF in the first 13 months of its existence, a 48% drop is a possibility.

“Obviously this is very dubious and obviously, we know that QQQ got a large drop after that…

…what I would be interested in is if Bitcoin finds itself at $120,000 at some point in a few weeks, what is the reaction there? And one potential outcome… basically what happened with the QQQ is after it hit $120, it had a large drop down to $63, which is a pretty big drop.”

Source: Benjamin Cowen/YouTube

Bitcoin is trading at $101,484 at time of writing.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Altcoin

XRP $15 Breakout? Not A Far-Fetched Idea—Analysis

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After dropping to less than $2 last March 11th, Ripple’s XRP springs back to life and it’s currently trading between $2.30 and $2.40. And with the US Securities and Exchange Commission vs Ripple case nearing its resolution, the market can expect more price volatility for this digital asset.

Within this context, market analyst Ali Martinez boldly claims that Ripple’s native coin still have the legs to hit a two-digit figure this cycle, using an extensive symmetrical triangle formation as a solid basis. 

Martinez’s view runs opposite the bearish statements from other commentators. XRP has been on a slide lately, affected by the broader crypto fall, dipping by around 25% from its $3.40 high achieved mid-January.

XRP Gradually Builds Its Symmetrical Triangle

Like most cryptos, XRP continues to have a highly volatile market performance. The token attempted a recovery early this month but met resistance, leading to a steep decline on March 11th. Interestingly, a few commentators remain bullish on the altcoin, including Martinez, who sees the token on track to reach $15.

In his latest commentary, shared via a Twitter/X posting, Martinez highlighted the seven-year symmetrical triangle formed by this asset, which dates back to January 2018, when it dropped from its $3.80 high.

Even before Martinez shared this observation, several commentators reported the triangle’s formation, suggesting that a breakout could lead to a price run.

XRP market cap currently at $137 billion. Chart: TradingView.com

The Ascending Trendline

According to Martinez, XRP formed its lower highs in January 2018, extending the descending trendline on top. As the crypto witnessed higher lows during this time frame, it extended its ascending trendline below, creating a symmetrical triangle.

Interestingly, XRP exited the symmetrical triangle structure following the November US elections. Ripple’s native token surged by 280% for the month, marking the biggest 30-day increase for the asset in seven years.

XRP price up in the last seven days. Source: Coingecko

Along with surprising traders, this breakout inspired fresh hope among XRP enthusiasts. While some experts noted that past breakouts do not automatically ensure continuous rallies, many saw this spike as evidence of possible long-term strength.

Still, the dramatic price fluctuation sparked conversations on XRP’s future, particularly in light of further government changes and more general market movements.

Ripple’s XRP is currently trading at $2.37, which is 2% up in the last seven days. 

XRP Currently Retesting A Breakout

After two months of upside, Ripple’s XRP is on a downturn, reflecting the broader crypto market sentiment. According to Martinez, XRP’s price is currently retesting the triangle chart breakout. He also suggested that even if XRP slips below $2, it’s still on track for a breakout, as long as it stays above $1. Armed with the charts, Martinez believes that XRP hitting $15 is not a far-out idea. 

Featured image from StormGain, chart from TradingView





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Altcoins

‘Be on Guard’: Trader Says Altcoin Bounce May Be Temporary, Tracks Bitcoin’s Next Targets

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A widely followed crypto analyst and trader is warning that an altcoin market bounce may end up being short-lived.

In a new post, pseudonymous crypto trader Altcoin Sherpa tells his 243,900 followers on the social media platform X that alts may give up gains after bouncing based on historical precedence.

He also says Bitcoin (BTC) may soon flip $84,000 into support and that the flagship crypto asset could maintain bullish momentum by breaking through the $89,000 level.

“BTC looks like $84,000 is the first test that is going to break (to the upside) and we’re ok in that department. $89,000 would be my next level of interest overall. Alts looking like they’ll give a temporary bounce but not sure how strong (yet). Be on guard.”

Image
Source: Altcoin Sherpa/X

Looking at his chart, the analyst suggests that if Bitcoin can regain $98,703 as support, the flagship crypto asset may print new all-time highs.

However, he warns if $78,167 breaks down as support, Bitcoin may plummet into the $60,000 range.

Bitcoin is trading for $84,154 at time of writing, up 4.6% in the last 24 hours.

The analyst also warns that altcoins like the dogwifhat (WIF) memecoin may struggle for a long time to ever regain higher price targets if Bitcoin turns bearish.

“It’s a lot more concerning for sh**coins this go around because BTC might actually be dead for a bit. In the previous drawdown, we had a lot more hope because we assumed BTC still had more upside. If BTC dies to $50,000 or w/e (whatever), these aren’t coming back for a very long time. See WIF.”

Image
Source: Altcoin Sherpa/X

WIF is trading for $0.50 at time of writing, up 9.7% in the last 24 hours.

He adds that altcoins may bounce even as they continue to print a bearish lower-high price structure.

“As much as everything is dead and we’re truly in a bear market for altcoins, it’s important to remember that a bounce will come and alts can still do a few x from current levels. Markets don’t move in a straight line down. Bounce coming within the next one to two months in my opinion.”

He shares the two-day chart of Ethereum (ETH) to illustrate the historical precedence of an altcoin bouncing amid a larger downtrend.

Image
Source: Altcoin Sherpa/X

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BasicTradingTV

Is Bitcoin Price Headed For $70,000 Or $300,000? What The Charts Are Saying

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Bitcoin’s price trajectory has become a significant point of interest in light of the recent downtrend, which has disappointed many bullish traders. According to on-chain analytics platform IntoTheBlock, the recent price crash up to the current price has seen over 6.5 million BTC addresses falling into losses. Still, technical analysis suggests Bitcoin could experience further drops. 

The question is whether Bitcoin will test the $70,000 mark before regaining strength or can rebound from here toward a $300,000 price target. Insights from price structure and historical patterns help provide a clearer picture of what’s next.

Bitcoin Price Decline: A Normal Cycle Within Uptrends

Despite concerns over Bitcoin’s recent price swings, crypto analyst Philip (BasicTradingTV) maintains that the market is behaving normally within a long-term bullish structure. He highlights that on the higher monthly timeframe, Bitcoin continues to create higher highs and higher lows and maintains a solid uptrend that dates back to 2017. 

This technical outlook, which was noted on the TradingView platform, comes as a response to concerns about whether BTC is still bullish after the ongoing 25% correction from its recent all-time high. 

Traders have been unsettled following the recent drop, but historical trends suggest this kind of movement is part of the market’s natural cycle. According to the analyst, Bitcoin is still forming a bullish market structure, and while short-term fluctuations may continue, the broader uptrend channel from 2017 is still in place. Furthermore, the analyst noted previous instances of 25% and 40% corrections during Bitcoin’s rallies from the lower trendline of this uptrend channel.

What’s Next For BTC? Possible Retest Of Resistance Before Rally To $300,000

With the notion of a long-term uptrend still intact, the analyst noted, however, that Bitcoin could continue its downtrend until it reaches $70,000. This level holds significant importance, as it previously marked Bitcoin’s all-time high before turning into resistance around mid-2024. After multiple attempts, Bitcoin eventually broke through this resistance toward the end of the year, leading to its new all-time high of $108,786 in January 2025.

As such, this $70,000 level is now a major psychological support zone, making it a key area to watch amidst the ongoing Bitcoin price correction. From here, the analyst predicted a rebound that would send BTC to reach as high as $300,000. “Levels to watch: 70.000, $300.000,” the analyst said.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $82,555, having spent the majority of the past 24 hours trading between $79,947 and $83,436. This leaves Bitcoin still about 14% away from testing the $70,000 support level.

However, there is also the possibility that BTC may not drop as low as $70,000 before bullish sentiment takes over once again. If Bitcoin continues to follow the trajectory of past cycles, Fibonacci extensions point to price targets between $150,000 and $300,000.

Bitcoin
BTC trading at $82,871 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com



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