Bitcoin

What Bitcoin Price History Predicts for February 2025

Published

2 months ago

January 16, 2025

As the Bitcoin market steps into 2025, investors are keenly analyzing seasonal trends and historical data to predict what February might hold. With Bitcoin’s cyclical nature often tied to its halving events, historical insights provide a valuable roadmap for navigating future performance. By examining historical data—including Bitcoin’s average monthly returns and its post-halving February performance—we aim to provide a clear picture of what February 2025 might look like.

Historical average monthly performance of Bitcoin. Monthly data set is from December 2010 to latest monthly close. Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro

Understanding Bitcoin’s Seasonality

The first chart, “Bitcoin Seasonality,” highlights average monthly returns from 2010 to the latest monthly close. The data underscores Bitcoin’s best-performing months and its cyclical tendencies. February has historically shown an average return of 13.62%, ranking it as one of the stronger months for Bitcoin performance.

Notably, November stands out with the highest average return at 43.74%, followed by October at 19.46%. Conversely, September has historically been the weakest month with an average return of -1.83%. February’s solid average places it in the upper tier of Bitcoin’s seasonality, offering investors hope for positive returns in early 2025.

Bitcoin percentage monthly returns over the past ten years. Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro

Historical Performance of February in Post-Halving Years

A deeper dive into Bitcoin’s historical February returns reveals fascinating insights for years that follow a halving event. Bitcoin’s halving mechanism—which occurs roughly every four years—reduces block rewards by half, creating a supply shock that has historically driven price increases. February’s performance in these post-halving years has consistently been positive:

2013 (Post-2012 Halving): 62.71%
2017 (Post-2016 Halving): 22.71%
2021 (Post-2020 Halving): 36.80%

The average return across these three years is an impressive 40.74%. Each of these Februarys reflects the bullish momentum that often follows halving events, driven by reduced Bitcoin supply issuance and increased market demand.

January 2025’s Performance Sets the Stage

While February 2025 is yet to unfold, the year began with a modest 7.28% return to date in January, as shown in the “Monthly Returns Heatmap.” January’s positive performance hints at a continuation of bullish sentiment in the early months of 2025, aligning with historical post-halving patterns. If February 2025 follows the trajectory of past post-halving years, it could see returns in the range of 22% to 63%, with an average expectation around 40%.

What Drives February’s Strong Post-Halving Performance?

Several factors contribute to February’s historical strength in post-halving years:

Supply Shock: The halving reduces new Bitcoin supply entering circulation, increasing scarcity and driving price appreciation.
Market Momentum: Investors often respond to the halving event with increased enthusiasm, pushing prices higher in the months following the event.
Institutional Interest: In recent cycles, institutional adoption has accelerated post-halving, adding significant capital inflows to the market.

Key Takeaways for February 2025

Investors should approach February 2025 with cautious optimism. Historical and seasonal data suggest the month has strong potential for positive returns, particularly in the context of Bitcoin’s post-halving cycles. With an average return of 40.74% in past post-halving Februarys, investors might expect similar performance this year, barring any significant macroeconomic or regulatory headwinds.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s history provides a valuable lens through which to view its future performance. February 2025 is shaping up to be another positive month, driven by the same post-halving dynamics that have historically fueled impressive gains. Combining historical data performance with a positive regulatory environment, the incoming pro-Bitcoin administration, and the news that The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) has issued a new guideline (ASU 2023-08) fundamentally changing how Bitcoin is accounted for (Why Hundreds of Companies Will Buy Bitcoin in 2025), 2025 is shaping up to be a transformative year for Bitcoin. As always, investors should combine these insights with broader market analysis and remain prepared for Bitcoin’s inherent volatility.

By leveraging the lessons of history and the patterns of seasonality, Bitcoin investors can make informed decisions as the market navigates this pivotal year.

To explore live data and stay informed on the latest analysis, visit bitcoinmagazinepro.com.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

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Ali Martinez

Analyst Sets Dogecoin Next Target As Ascending Triangle Forms

Published

42 minutes ago

March 24, 2025

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Crypto analyst CobraVanguard has revealed the next price target for Dogecoin as an ascending triangle forms for the foremost meme coin. A rally to this price target could pave the way for the new highs, especially with the crypto market looking to be in rebound mode.

Next Target For Dogecoin As Ascending Triangle Forms

In a TradingView post, CobraVanguard set $0.197 as the next target for the Dogecoin price with an ascending triangle forming. He noted that this ascending triangle indicates a potential price increase. The analyst added that it is anticipated that the price could rise, aligning with the projected price movement of AB=CD.

Meanwhile, CobraVanguard warned that it is crucial to wait for the triangle to break before taking any action. His accompanying chart showed that Dogecoin needs to break above $0.177 to confirm a break above the ascending triangle. A break above that target would then lead to a rally to the $0.197 target.

Dogecoin already looks to be in rebound mode at the moment, alongside Bitcoin, which is nearing the $90,000 mark again. The foremost meme coin is nearing the $0.177 target for a break above the ascending triangle. As crypto analyst Kevin Capital suggested, DOGE will likely rally as long as BTC is in bullish territory.

Crypto traders are also betting on a Dogecoin rally to the upside. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed that 76.26% of traders with open DOGE positions on Binance futures are leaning bullish. This is particularly bullish because Binance traders have a good track record of being right most of the time. In another X post, Martinez revealed that whales bought over 120 million DOGE last week, which is also bullish for the foremost meme coin.

DOGE’s Market Structure Has Shifted

In an X post, crypto analyst Trader Tardigrade revealed that Dogecoin’s market structure has shifted. This came as he noted that Dogecoin is recovering from an ascending triangle, forming higher highs and higher lows from lower highs and lower lows.

Based on this, the analyst affirmed that Dogecoin had shifted the market structure from a downtrend to an uptrend on the hourly chart since it just formed the second higher high. His accompanying chart showed that DOGE is eyeing a rally to $0.177 as it continues to form higher highs.

Martinez raised the possibility of the Dogecoin price rallying to as high as $4 or even $20 in the long term. He stated that if DOGE holds above the $0.16 support at the lower boundary of an ascending channel, history suggests that it could rebound toward the mid-range at $4 or upper range at around $20.

At the time of writing, the Dogecoin price is trading at around $0.174, up over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview.com

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin and Stock Market Rally Hard as White House Narrows Scope of Tariffs

Published

3 hours ago

March 24, 2025

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Digital assets and equities are soaring on the weekly open amid renewed optimism stemming from the White House taking a softer tone on tariffs.

While tariff threats initially sparked one of the worst stock market drawdowns in recent memory, reports are now suggesting that President Trump’s aggressive trade negotiations may be in the process of a smooth resolution.

Citing “US officials familiar with the matter,” Bloomberg reports that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs may be more targeted than initially anticipated, with some countries being exempt, and some sector-specific levies being delayed by the White House.

The Wall Street Journal reported similar information.

All major stock indices opened the week well into the green, while Bitcoin (BTC) is up 3% on the day and is now up 15% from its 2025 low near $76,500.

Said Tobin Marcus of Wolfe Research in a note seen by CNBC,

“Omitting the sectoral tariffs from the April 2nd package significantly reduces both its aggregate scale and the maximum rate on targeted sectors, given that all of Trump’s tariffs to date have been designed to stack… The ceiling for reciprocal tariffs on April 2 remains dramatic, and we still expect a negative market reaction, but the scale won’t be as severe and the sectoral impacts won’t be as concentrated.”

However, in a post on Truth Social, President Trump announced that “secondary tariffs” would be placed on Venezuela and any country that purchases oil and/or gas from the country. Trump cited numerous reasons, including “the fact that Venezuela has purposefully and deceitfully sent to the United States, undercover, tens of thousands of high level, and other, criminals, many of whom are murderers and people of a very violent nature.”

At time of writing, BTC is trading at $88,013.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Bitcoin

Tabit Insurance Raises $40 Million Bitcoin-Funded Insurance Facility

Published

3 hours ago

March 24, 2025

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Tabit Insurance SCC has announced the capitalization of a $40 million insurance facility, funded entirely in Bitcoin, according to a press release sent to Bitcoin Magazine. This marks the first time a property and casualty (P&C) insurer has held all of its regulatory reserves in BTC while continuing to denominate its insurance policies and premiums in U.S. dollars. The company expressed the benefits of its funding approach, allowing regulators and auditors to verify reserves in real time.

According to Tabit, its use of BTC as capital is intended to provide an alternative source of capacity for the insurance industry. The company operates as a segregated cell company, which allows for additional cells to be formed to deploy capital in the insurance sector. This structure also enables BTC holders to earn USD returns through their own segregated cells.

William Shihara, co-founder of Tabit, stated, “Our approach to capital allocation underscores our confidence in providing a steady hand to our partners. By combining traditional balance sheet strength with carefully chosen assets like bitcoin, we’re able to stay responsive to market shifts and better serve the insurance community. This solution offers a regulated dollar return which we’re excited to earn on an alternative asset class such as bitcoin.”

The company also emphasized that its reserves are verifiable on the blockchain through a proof-of-reserves model, which allows for real-time transparency beyond the typical quarterly disclosures in the insurance industry.

“At Tabit, we saw a clear opportunity to enhance transparency within an industry that has been sorely lacking in innovation,” said Stephen Stonberg, co-founder and CEO. “We’re eager to move the insurance sector into the future by demonstrating what is possible by allowing an insurer to access a largely new and untapped source of insurance capital: digital assets.”

Tabit is headquartered in Bridgetown, Barbados, a jurisdiction known for its captive insurance market and is a top ten global captive jurisdiction. The company states that Barbados’ regulatory framework provides oversight for its operations.

Tabit plans to work with insurance carriers, brokers, and organizations seeking additional capacity or alternative risk financing options. It also aims to collaborate with large holders of digital assets who want to generate USD income while maintaining BTC exposure. More information about Tabit Insurance SCC can be found on their website here.

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