Bitcoin

Why Bitcoin Wins No Matter The Outcome Of Trump’s Trade War

Published

3 months ago

February 5, 2025

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In an escalation of global economic friction, President Trump’s imposed tariffs have roiled financial markets this week, cutting across both equities, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Yet a new memo from Bitwise Asset Management suggests that these headwinds might ultimately propel Bitcoin to new heights—regardless of whether Trump’s strategy succeeds or fails.

At the beginning of the week, the crypto market witnessed a severe sell-off. Bitcoin declined by about 5%, while Ethereum and XRP suffered even sharper losses—17% and 18%, respectively. The immediate catalyst was Trump’s imposition of a 25% tariff on most imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as a 10% tariff on China. In retaliation, those trading partners announced countermeasures of their own.

The US dollar reacted by jumping more than 1% against major currencies. That, combined with lingering weekend illiquidity in crypto markets, triggered a wave of forced liquidations as leveraged traders sold into the downdraft. According to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, as much as $10 billion in leveraged positions was wiped out in what he described as “the largest liquidation event in crypto’s history.”

Despite the dramatic price action, Bitwise’s Head of Alpha Strategies, Jeffrey Park, remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s trajectory. He points to two guiding ideas that shape his bullish thesis: the ‘Triffin Dilemma’ and President Trump’s broader aim to restructure America’s trade dynamics.

The Triffin Dilemma highlights the conflict between a currency serving as a global reserve—generating consistent demand and overvaluation—and the need to run persistent trade deficits to supply enough currency abroad. While this status allows the US to borrow cheaply, it also puts sustained pressure on domestic manufacturing and exports.

“Trump wants to get rid of the negatives, but keep the positives,” Park explains, suggesting that tariffs may be a negotiating tool to compel other nations to the table—reminiscent of the 1985 Plaza Accord, which devalued the dollar in coordination with other major economies.

The Two Scenarios: Bitcoin Wins, Fiat Loses

Park argues that Bitcoin stands to benefit under two distinct outcomes of Trump’s current trade policy:

Scenario 1: Trump Succeeds in Weakening the Dollar (While Keeping Rates Low)

If Trump can maneuver a multilateral agreement—akin to a ‘Plaza Accord 2.0’—to reduce the dollar’s overvaluation without boosting long-term interest rates, risk appetite among US investors could surge. In this environment, a non-sovereign asset like Bitcoin, free from capital controls and dilution, would likely attract additional inflows. Meanwhile, other nations grappling with the fallout of a weaker dollar might deploy fiscal and monetary stimulus to support their economies, potentially driving even more capital toward alternative assets like Bitcoin.

“If Trump can bully his way into the position, there’s no asset better positioned than bitcoin. Lower rates will spark the risk appetite of US investors, sending prices high. Abroad, countries will face weakened economies, and will turn to classic economic stimulus to compensate, leading again to higher bitcoin prices,” Park argues.

Scenario 2: A Prolonged Trade War And Massive Money Printing

If Trump fails to secure a broad-based deal and the trade war grinds on, global economic weakness would almost certainly invite extensive monetary stimulus from central banks. Historically, such large-scale liquidity injections have been bullish for Bitcoin, as investors seek deflationary and decentralized assets insulated from central bank policies

“And what if he fails? What if, instead, we get a sustained tariff war? Our high-conviction view is the resulting economic weakness will lead to money printing on a scale larger than we’ve ever seen. And historically, such stimulus has been extraordinarily good for bitcoin,” Park says..

At press time, BTC traded at $98,557.

bitcoin price — BTC price, 1-week chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin

Tariff Carnage Starting to Fulfill BTC’s ‘Store of Value’ Promise

Published

5 hours ago

April 27, 2025

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April has been a month of extreme volatility and tumultuous times for traders.

From conflicting headlines about President Donald Trump’s tariffs against other nations to total confusion about which assets to seek shelter in, it has been one for the record books.

Amid all the confusion, when traditional “haven assets” failed to act as safe places to park money, one bright spot emerged that might have surprised some market participants: bitcoin.

“Historically, cash (the US dollar), bonds (US Treasuries), the Swiss Franc, and gold have fulfilled that role [safe haven], with bitcoin edging in on some of that territory,” said NYDIG Research in a note.

Safe haven asset performance (NYDIG Research)

NYDIG’s data showed that while gold and Swiss Franc had been consistent safe-haven winners, since ‘Liberation Day’—when President Trump announced sweeping tariff hikes on April 2, kicking off extreme volatility in the market—bitcoin has been added to the list.

“Bitcoin has acted less like a liquid levered version of levered US equity beta and more like the non-sovereign issued store of value that it is,” NYDIG wrote.

Zooming out, it seems that as the “sell America” trade gains momentum, investors are taking notice of bitcoin and the original promise of the biggest cryptocurrency.

“Though the connection is still tentative, bitcoin appears to be fulfilling its original promise as a non-sovereign store of value, designed to thrive in times like these,” NYDIG added.

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Bitcoin Continues To Flow Out Of Major Exchanges — Supply Squeeze Soon?

Published

15 hours ago

April 27, 2025

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Este artículo también está disponible en español.

It was quite the coincidence that the cryptocurrency market jolted back to life after Easter Sunday, with Bitcoin leading the way with more than a double-digit gain. While the price of BTC continues to hold above the critical $94,000 level, the premier cryptocurrency seems to be losing some momentum.

Unsurprisingly, investors appear to be increasingly confident in the promise of this recent rally, as significant amounts of BTC continue to make their way off major centralized exchanges over the past few days. Here’s how much investors have moved in the past few days.

Over 35,000 BTC Move Out Of Coinbase And Binance

In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, crypto analyst João Wedson revealed that Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, has seen increased activity over the past few days. The exchange netflow data shows that huge amounts of Bitcoin have been withdrawn from the platform in recent days.

According to CryptoQuant data, a total of 27,750 BTC (worth $2.63 billion at current price) was moved out of Binance on Friday, April 25. This latest round of withdrawals represents the third-largest net outflow in the centralized exchange’s history.

The movement of significant crypto amounts from exchanges, which offer services like selling to non-custodial wallets, suggests a potential shift in investor sentiment and strategy. Large exchange outflows often signal increased confidence of holders in the long-term potential of an asset.

Wedson noted that the recent outflows do not guarantee a price rally for Bitcoin, but they do signal strong institutional activity, which is often a precursor for major volatility. Citing China’s crypto ban in 2021, the crypto analyst highlighted how massive exchange outflows didn’t prevent the dump.

At the same time, Wedson mentioned that the continuous Bitcoin outflows over several days, like during the FTX collapse, preceded a price bottom and the eventual market recovery. Ultimately, the online pundit hinted at paying close attention to the overall trend of the exchange netflow rather than a single-day activity.

Similarly, more than 7,000 BTC (worth approximately $66.5 million) have made their way out of the Coinbase exchange. According to the CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha, this negative exchange netflow could be an indicator of increased institutional activity, as Coinbase is known as the primary crypto vendor for US-based institutions.

Taha said:

These large outflows typically suggest accumulation by institutions or large investors, potentially signaling bullish sentiment.

The analyst outlined that if the dwindling exchange reserves correlate with an increased spot demand or ETF inflows, a supply squeeze could be on the horizon, potentially pushing the price to the upside.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just beneath $95,200, reflecting an almost 2% increase in the past 24 hours.

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin Perpetual Swaps Signal Short Bias Amid Price Rebound – Details

Published

23 hours ago

April 26, 2025

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The Bitcoin market saw another rebound in the past week as prices leaped by over 12% to hit a local peak of $95,600. Amid the ongoing market euphoria, prominent blockchain analytics company Glassnode has shared some important developments in the Bitcoin derivative markets.

Bitcoin Short Bets Rise Despite Price Rally, Setting Stage For Volatility

Despite a bullish trading week, derivative traders are approaching the Bitcoin market with skepticism, as evidenced by a build-up of leveraged short positions.

In a recent X post on April 25, Glassnode reported that Open Interest (OI) in Bitcoin perpetual swaps climbed to 218,000 BTC, marking a 15.6% increase from early March. In line with market activity, this rise in Open Interest aligns with increased leverage, introducing the potential for market volatility via liquidations or stop-outs.

Bitcoin

Generally, a rise in Open Interest amidst a price rally is expected to signal long-term market confidence. However, Glassnode’s findings have revealed an opposite scenario. Despite Bitcoin’s bullish strides in the past week, short market positions appear to be dominating the perpetual futures markets.

This concerning development is indicated by a decline in the average funding rate, which has now slipped into negative territory to sit around -0.023%. The perpetual funding rate is a periodic payment between long and short traders aimed at keeping the contract price in line with the underlying spot price.

A negative funding rate indicates short traders pay long traders as Bitcoin’s perpetual contract price is trading below the spot price. This is caused by a higher number of short positions as traders are largely bearish about Bitcoin, even despite recent gains.

Furthermore, the 7-day moving average (7DMA) of long-side funding premiums has dropped to $88,000 per hour, reinforcing this short-dominant sentiment. This downtrend indicates a waning demand for long positions, as traders exhibit a short bias.

However, Glassnode presents a bullish note stating that the present combination of rising leverage and short positions paves the way for a potential short squeeze, where an unexpected upward price move forces short-sellers to close their positions, thereby driving prices even higher.

Bitcoin Price Overview

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $94,629 following a 1.01% retracement from its local peak price on April 25. Despite creeping developments in the perpetual futures market, the BTC market remains highly bullish, indicated by gains of 1.02%, 11.12%, and 8.32% in the last one, seven, and thirty days, respectively. With a market cap of $1.88 trillion, the premier cryptocurrency ranks as the largest digital asset and fifth-largest asset in the world.

Bitcoin