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Why ETH May Drop Below $3,000 in February 2025

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Ethereum price plunged below $3,150 on Saturday Feb 1 as crypto markets retreated after a volatile week, on-chain data trends suggest declining whale demand for ETH could exacerbate the market dip in the days ahead. 

Ethereum Price Struggling to Hold $3,100 Amid Market Retreat

Ethereum (ETH) faced a sharp downturn on Saturday, mirroring a broader market decline that erased gains seen earlier in the week. ETH fell approximately 6% to trade below the crucial $3,150 mark, as risk-off sentiment spread across digital asset markets.

The decline in ETH price follows a volatile week, where macroeconomic factors such as Federal Reserve policy expectations and mixed economic data influenced investor sentiment. The broader cryptocurrency market also saw major losses, with Bitcoin dropping below $102,000 and other leading altcoins facing similar sell-offs.

Ethereum Price (ETHUSD)Ethereum Price (ETHUSD)
Ethereum Price (ETHUSD)

Ethereum, which had shown resilience earlier in the week by reclaiming the $3,300 level, ultimately failed to sustain its momentum amid increased selling pressure.

MoemntEthereum’s technical indicators suggest that the $3,100 level is a critical support zone. If this threshold is breached decisively, ETH could see further declines toward the psychological $3,000 level, where buyers may look to step in.

Ethereum Whale Demand Plunges by 22% as Network Updates Disrupt Market

The decline in Ethereum’s price has coincided with a significant drop in whale activity. Large transactions, often used as a proxy for institutional and high-net-worth investor participation, have fallen sharply

Ethereum Price vs. ETH Whale Transaction Count | Source: SantimentEthereum Price vs. ETH Whale Transaction Count | Source: Santiment
Ethereum Price vs. ETH Whale Transaction Count | Source: Santiment

in January. Ethereum whale transaction counts peaked at 1,741 during the month, marking a 22% decline from December’s peak of 2,245. More concerning, the figure continued to slide toward 1,571 by January 31, according to on-chain data.

This trend suggests that major investors may be reassessing their exposure to ETH, particularly in light of recent discussions surrounding Ethereum’s network updates.

Vitalik Buterin’s recent statements regarding the network’s roadmap have introduced uncertainty, prompting some traders to take a wait-and-see approach. Historically, major protocol upgrades or discussions around them have led to short-term volatility as the market digests potential impacts on transaction costs, scalability, and staking mechanisms.

Vitalik Buterin Outlines Key Updates for Ethereum (ETH), January 24, 2025. Vitalik Buterin Outlines Key Updates for Ethereum (ETH), January 24, 2025. 
Vitalik Buterin Outlines Key Updates for Ethereum (ETH), January 24, 2025.

Whale demand is a crucial factor in maintaining liquidity within Ethereum’s ecosystem. Large holders provide much-needed market liquidity.  By absorbing selling pressure, it allows panic sellers to exit with minimal negative impact on ETH prices. Hence, the recent decline in whale participation, therefore, raises concerns about Ethereum’s ability to withstand further downward pressure if the poignant market sentiment persists.

The simultaneous drop in Ethereum price and whale transaction counts underscores a cautious stance among institutional investors. Many appear to be reducing their exposure, possibly awaiting further clarity on the network’s transition plans and upcoming updates. If whale activity does not recover soon, ETH may struggle to regain its footing, as reduced liquidity could amplify price swings in either direction.

Ethereum Price Forecast: Double Top Formation hint $3,100 breakdown

Looking ahead, Ethereum price forecast charts hint at pivotal trading periods ahead. If buying interest returns at key support levels, ETH could stabilize and potentially reclaim lost ground. However, if whale demand remains muted, Ethereum risks deeper declines, with traders likely watching for a test of the $3,000 mark in the coming weeks.

In terms of fundamental indicators. Market participants will closely monitor upcoming Ethereum Foundation announcements and Buterin’s commentary for further guidance on the network’s trajectory.

From a technical standpoint, ETH price action has formed a classic double-top pattern hinting at a potential breakdown below the critical $3,100 support.

Ethereum price forecast (ETHUSD)Ethereum price forecast (ETHUSD)
Ethereum price forecast (ETHUSD)

The double top, marked by two failed attempts to breach recent highs, often signals exhaustion among buyers. With ETH now trading around $3,153, a decisive break beneath $3,100 could confirm the bearish reversal pattern, exposing downside targets at $3,020.

Further reinforcing the bearish outlook is the Elder’s Force Index (EWO), which has turned negative at -4.25. This suggests declining momentum as selling pressure intensifies. Additionally, ETH’s failure to reclaim the middle Donchian Channel boundary at $3,272 highlights the dominance of bears, keeping the broader downtrend intact.

On the bullish side, Ethereum still hovers within a consolidation zone, and a strong bounce from $3,100 could invalidate the breakdown scenario. If buyers regain control and push ETH above the $3,272 resistance, it could trigger a short-term recovery toward the $3,525 upper Donchian boundary. However, unless sentiment shifts decisively, ETH remains vulnerable to further downside.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Ethereum’s decline is driven by broader market weakness, reduced whale demand, and uncertainty surrounding upcoming network updates.

Whale transactions provide liquidity and market stability. A decline in large transactions can lead to increased price volatility and weaker support levels.

A decisive breakdown below this threshold could push ETH toward $3,020 or even the psychological $3,000 mark.

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Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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ETH Price

Why is Ethereum (ETH) price down today?

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Ether (ETH) price declined by over 11.75% in the last 24 hours to around $1,900. At its intraday low, the cryptocurrency was trading for $1,755, its lowest price since October 2023.

Cryptocurrencies, Markets, Hacks, Decentralized Exchange, Ether Price, Ethereum Price

ETH/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

Several factors appear to be contributing to ETH price losses, including:

  • US recession fears and its overall impact on risk-on markets.

  • Massive long liquidations in the crypto market.

  • Crypto loans backed by ETH as collateral facing liquidation risks.

  • Bearish technicals.

Ether price declines with risk-on assets

Ether’s ongoing price drop mirrors similar declines in the broader risk-on market due to unfavorable macroeconomic conditions.

Key points:

Cryptocurrencies, Markets, Hacks, Decentralized Exchange, Ether Price, Ethereum Price

TOTAL crypto market cap vs. Nasdaq, Dow Jones, S&P 500, and US 10-year Treasury note yields four-hour chart. Source: TradingView

  • JPMorgan raised US recession risk to 40% for 2025, up from 30%, citing US President Donald Trump’s “extreme US policies” as a key risk factor.

  • Goldman Sachs also raised its 12-month recession probability to 20%, up from 15%.

  • Earlier in March, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on all goods from Mexico and Canada, and 10% tariffs on Chinese imports.

  • Canada and Mexico have announced intentions to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods, escalating trade tensions and raising concerns about a potential trade war.

  • Meanwhile, China has already retaliated by increasing tariffs on multiple US products and imposing export controls and investment restrictions on 25 US firms.

  • These tariffs are expected to increase consumer prices and contribute to US inflation.

US recession fears are impacting Ethereum and the crypto sector, notably:

  • Ether, Bitcoin, and other top-ranking crypto assets have historically declined during periods of economic turbulences, e.g., the Covid-19 sell-off in March 2020.

  • As of March 11, the 52-week correlation between the crypto market and the US benchmark index, the S&P 500 index, was 0.69.

Cryptocurrencies, Markets, Hacks, Decentralized Exchange, Ether Price, Ethereum Price

TOTAL crypto market cap and S&P 500’s 52-week correlation coefficient. Source: TradingView

  • A consistently positive correlation increases the odds of a crypto market decline if US stocks keep falling, especially as the trade war drags on further.

  • Bond traders see no need for a rate cut before June, with CME data showing 95% and 52.5% odds of a pause in the Fed’s March and May meetings, respectively.

Cryptocurrencies, Markets, Hacks, Decentralized Exchange, Ether Price, Ethereum Price

Target rate probabilities for March’s Fed meeting. Source: CME

Bad DeFi loans increase Ether sell-off pressure

A $74 million DeFi loan on the Sky protocol, collateralized with $130 million in ETH, almost got liquidated after Ether price fell below the liquidation level just above $1,900.

As it happened:

  • The borrower added $34 million in ETH as collateral to avoid liquidation.

  • Withdrew $1.6 million in USDT from Binance, swapped it for DAI, and deposited into Maker.

  • Reduced debt to $73.1 million while ETH’s price continued to decline.

  • Liquidation level remained at $1,836 per ETH, closer to ETH’s current price above $1,900.

  • Nearly $353 million in debt is tied to such loans, risking liquidation if ETH’s price falls 20% from here.

Cryptocurrencies, Markets, Hacks, Decentralized Exchange, Ether Price, Ethereum Price

Ethereum liquidation levels in DeFi. Source: DefiLlama

Long liquidations accelerate ETH downtrend

Ether’s tumble over the past 24 hours coincided with a wave of long liquidations that forced traders to exit their leveraged positions.

Key takeaways:

  • Over $240 million worth of ETH positions were wiped out in the last 24 hours, with long liquidations accounting for $196.27 million, or 82% of the total.

Cryptocurrencies, Markets, Hacks, Decentralized Exchange, Ether Price, Ethereum Price

ETH total liquidation chart. Source: Coinglass

  • The sharp price drop triggered a cascade of forced sell-offs as traders betting on Ethereum’s price increase were liquidated.

  • When leveraged long positions fail to maintain margin requirements, exchanges automatically sell off their holdings to cover losses.

  • Such liquidations accelerate price declines, exacerbating the downturn.

  • The broader crypto market also experienced a sharp deleveraging event, with total liquidations reaching $897.26 million across assets.

Cryptocurrencies, Markets, Hacks, Decentralized Exchange, Ether Price, Ethereum Price

Crypto market liquidations (24 hours). Source: TradingView

Ether eyes further decline toward $1,700

From a technical perspective, Ether’s price decline today is part of its prevailing inverse-cup-and-handle (IC&H) pattern.

Key points:

Cryptocurrencies, Markets, Hacks, Decentralized Exchange, Ether Price, Ethereum Price

ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

  • A temporary consolidation (handle) formed near $2,700, indicating a failed breakout attempt.

  • ETH broke below key support levels, confirming the IC&H breakdown, leading to more losses.

  • The measured move target from the pattern suggests a potential decline toward $1,700, aligning with the dotted support level.

  • The 50-day EMA ($2,600) and 200-day EMA ($2,929) remain far above, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

Key levels to watch:

  • ETH price is inside a descending channel pattern since late February.

  • As of March 11, the ETH/USD pair was rising after testing the channel’s lower trendline as support.

Cryptocurrencies, Markets, Hacks, Decentralized Exchange, Ether Price, Ethereum Price

ETH/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

  • Such rebounds have taken prices toward the channel’s upper trendline in recent history.

  • If the fractal repeats, ETH’s next upside target could be around $2,000, aligning with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement line.

  • A reversal from current price levels could have ETH test the IC&H downside target of $1,700.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.