Why is Bitcoin price stuck?

Bitcoin (BTC) price has been consolidating within a roughly $5,500 range since March 9 as the $84,000 level represents stiff overhead resistance.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and Bitstamp shows BTC price oscillating between $78,599 and $84,000, as shown in the chart below.

Key reasons why Bitcoin price remains flat today include:

• Trump’s trade war tensions causing uncertainty in the market.

• Weakening demand for Bitcoin and neutral funding rates.

• BTC price remains pinned below the 200-day SMA.

Broader economic uncertainty, weakening demand

Bitcoin’s price stagnation is partially due to the broader economic and geopolitical factors that are currently at play. 

What to know:

• Trump’s new policies, such as his proposed trade tariffs on Mexico and Canada, have unnerved the market.

• Investors, wary of inflation concerns and a potential tariff war, are avoiding risk assets like Bitcoin.

• As Cointelegraph recently reported, Bitcoin’s rally post-Trump’s November election has lost steam amid a weakening global economy. 

• This has resulted in weaker demand for Bitcoin, according to Glassnode.

For instance, the cost basis of 1w–1m short-term holders flattened out above that of the longer-term holders (1m–3m) in Q1, “marking an early sign of weakening demand in the immediate term.”

Related: Bitcoin price drops 2% as falling inflation boosts US trade war fears

Bitcoin’s drop below the $95,000 level saw the 1w–1m cost basis slide below the 1m–3m cost basis, “confirming a transition into net capital outflows.”

Glassnode noted:

“This reversal indicates that macro uncertainty has spooked demand, reducing new inflows… and suggests that new buyers are now hesitant to absorb sell-side pressure, reinforcing the shift from post-ATH euphoria into a more cautious market environment.”

Until the current trend changes due to macroeconomic tailwinds, such as Fed rate cuts, Bitcoin could struggle to break out of the current range, leaving it vulnerable to pullbacks toward $70,000.

Another clear signal of Bitcoin’s stagnation is in the perpetual futures funding rates. BTC funding rates, which reflect the cost of holding long or short positions in crypto futures, are hovering close to 0%, indicating increasing indecisiveness among traders.

Without speculative fuel, Bitcoin is struggling to move in either direction, leaving its price stuck in a tight range as traders wait for the next catalyst.

Bitcoin price faces stiff resistance on the upside

Bitcoin also trades below key resistance areas, as shown in the chart below:

• On March 9, BTC fell below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $83,736.

• This trendline has stifled the latest efforts for a sustained recovery.

Popular crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades says that the 200-day SMA at around $83,700 and the 200-day EMA at $86,000 are key levels as they are “solid indicators of the mid/long term trend and overall strength of the market.”

In other words, failure to produce a decisive close above the 200-day SMA and flipping it into a new support level could lead to a longer consolidation period for Bitcoin price.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.