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Will December Surpass November’s Record-Breaking Bitcoin Price Increase?

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Bitcoin is closing out one of its most remarkable months in history, surging over $30,000 in November and marking a renewed bullish sentiment in the market. As we look ahead to December and beyond, investors are eager to understand whether Bitcoin’s momentum can sustain itself into 2025. With macroeconomic conditions, historical trends, and on-chain data aligning in Bitcoin’s favor, let’s analyze what’s happening and what it could mean for the future.

November’s Record-Breaking Performance

November 2024 wasn’t just any month for Bitcoin; it was historic. Bitcoin’s price rose from around $67,000 to nearly $100,000, an approximate 50% peak-to-trough increase, making it the best-performing month ever in terms of dollar increase. This rally rewarded long-term holders who endured months of consolidation after Bitcoin’s all-time high of $74,000 earlier in the year.

Figure 1: Bitcoin has rallied over $30,000 in November.

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Historically, Q4 is Bitcoin’s strongest quarter, and November has often been a standout month. December, which has also performed well in past bull cycles, presents a promising outlook. But as with any rally, some short-term cooling might be expected.

Figure 2: Q4 has historically been Bitcoin’s best-performing period.

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The Role of the Dollar and Global Liquidity

Interestingly, Bitcoin’s rise occurred against the backdrop of a strengthening U.S. Dollar Strength Index (DXY), a scenario that typically sees Bitcoin underperforming. Historically, Bitcoin and the DXY have maintained an inverse relationship: when the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin weakens, and vice versa.

Figure 3: Bitcoin rallied even as the strength of USD increased.

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Similarly, the Global M2 money supply, another key metric, has shown a slight contraction recently. Bitcoin has historically correlated positively with global liquidity; thus, its current performance defies expectations. If liquidity conditions improve in the coming months, this could act as a powerful tailwind for Bitcoin’s price.

Figure 4: Global M2 YoY chart showing liquidity contraction.

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Parallels to Past Bull Cycles

Bitcoin’s current trajectory is strikingly similar to past bull markets, particularly the 2016–2017 cycle. That cycle began with gradual price increases before breaking key resistance levels and entering an exponential growth phase.

In 2017, Bitcoin’s price broke out from a key technical level of around $1,000, leading to a parabolic rally that peaked at $20,000, a 20x increase. Similarly, the 2020-2021 cycle saw Bitcoin rise from $20,000 to nearly $70,000 after breaking above the crucial YoY Performance threshold.

Figure 5: Current BTC performance showing parallels to price prior to breaking previous major resistance levels.

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If Bitcoin can break out decisively from this historic level and above the key $100,000 resistance, we may witness a repeat of these explosive price movements as BTC enters its exponential phase of bullish price action.

Institutional Adoption and Accumulation

A key factor underpinning Bitcoin’s strength is the continued accumulation by institutions. Bitcoin ETFs are adding billions of dollars worth of BTC to their holdings, and corporations like MicroStrategy have doubled down on their Bitcoin strategy, now holding close to 400,000 BTC. Even with BTC rallying to new all-time highs, ‘smart money’ is scrambling to accumulate as much as possible to ensure they’re not left behind.

Figure 6: Institutions are not waiting for a retracement to accumulate BTC.

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This institutional demand indicates growing confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term store of value, even in volatile market conditions. Such accumulation also tightens the available supply, creating upward pressure on prices as demand increases.

Conclusion

While December has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, short-term volatility could temper gains as the market digests November’s sharp rally. Although given the aggressive accumulation we’re witnessing from institutional participants anything is possible.

Longer-term, however, the outlook remains exceptionally bullish. The obvious level to watch is $100,000 as the next major milestone, which, if breached, could pave the way for a much larger rally in 2025. Bitcoin is entering one of its most exciting phases yet, with the stars seemingly aligning across macroeconomic, technical, and on-chain metrics.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: The BIGGEST Bitcoin Month EVER – So What Happens Next?


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Why is Bitcoin price stuck?

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Bitcoin (BTC) price has been consolidating within a roughly $5,500 range since March 9 as the $84,000 level represents stiff overhead resistance.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and Bitstamp shows BTC price oscillating between $78,599 and $84,000, as shown in the chart below.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Key reasons why Bitcoin price remains flat today include:

  • Trump’s trade war tensions causing uncertainty in the market.

  • Weakening demand for Bitcoin and neutral funding rates.

  • BTC price remains pinned below the 200-day SMA.

Broader economic uncertainty, weakening demand

Bitcoin’s price stagnation is partially due to the broader economic and geopolitical factors that are currently at play. 

What to know:

  • Trump’s new policies, such as his proposed trade tariffs on Mexico and Canada, have unnerved the market.

  • Investors, wary of inflation concerns and a potential tariff war, are avoiding risk assets like Bitcoin.

  • As Cointelegraph recently reported, Bitcoin’s rally post-Trump’s November election has lost steam amid a weakening global economy. 

  • This has resulted in weaker demand for Bitcoin, according to Glassnode.

For instance, the cost basis of 1w–1m short-term holders flattened out above that of the longer-term holders (1m–3m) in Q1, “marking an early sign of weakening demand in the immediate term.”

Related: Bitcoin price drops 2% as falling inflation boosts US trade war fears

Bitcoin’s drop below the $95,000 level saw the 1w–1m cost basis slide below the 1m–3m cost basis, “confirming a transition into net capital outflows.”

Glassnode noted:

“This reversal indicates that macro uncertainty has spooked demand, reducing new inflows… and suggests that new buyers are now hesitant to absorb sell-side pressure, reinforcing the shift from post-ATH euphoria into a more cautious market environment.”

Bitcoin STH capital flow. Source: Glassnode

Until the current trend changes due to macroeconomic tailwinds, such as Fed rate cuts, Bitcoin could struggle to break out of the current range, leaving it vulnerable to pullbacks toward $70,000.

Another clear signal of Bitcoin’s stagnation is in the perpetual futures funding rates. BTC funding rates, which reflect the cost of holding long or short positions in crypto futures, are hovering close to 0%, indicating increasing indecisiveness among traders.

Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rates across all exchanges. Source: Glassnode

Without speculative fuel, Bitcoin is struggling to move in either direction, leaving its price stuck in a tight range as traders wait for the next catalyst.

Bitcoin price faces stiff resistance on the upside

Bitcoin also trades below key resistance areas, as shown in the chart below:

  • On March 9, BTC fell below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $83,736.

  • This trendline has stifled the latest efforts for a sustained recovery.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Popular crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades says that the 200-day SMA at around $83,700 and the 200-day EMA at $86,000 are key levels as they are “solid indicators of the mid/long term trend and overall strength of the market.”

In other words, failure to produce a decisive close above the 200-day SMA and flipping it into a new support level could lead to a longer consolidation period for Bitcoin price.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.