Bitcoin

Will Trump’s Executive Order Break Bitcoin’s Four-Year Market Cycle?

Published

1 month ago

January 31, 2025

The Bitcoin market has long been defined by its seemingly immutable four-year cycle, a pattern of three years of surging prices followed by a sharp correction. However, a seismic shift in policy from Washington, led by former President Donald Trump, may shatter this cycle and usher in a new era of prolonged growth for the cryptocurrency industry.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, recently posed an intriguing question: Can Trump’s Executive Order break crypto’s four-year cycle? His answer, though nuanced, leans towards an emphatic yes.

The Four-Year Cycle: A Recap

Hougan clarifies his personal belief that the four-year Bitcoin market cycle is not driven by Bitcoin’s halving events. He states, “People try to link it to bitcoin’s quadrennial ‘halving,’ but those halvings are misaligned with the cycle, having occurred in 2016, 2020, and 2024.”

Source: Bitwise Asset Management. Data from December 31, 2010 to December 31, 2024.

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has been historically driven by a mix of investor sentiment, technological breakthroughs, and market dynamics. Typically, a bull run emerges following a significant catalyst—be it infrastructure improvements or institutional adoption—which attracts new capital and fuels speculation. Over time, leverage accumulates, excesses emerge, and a major event—such as regulatory crackdowns or financial fraud—triggers a brutal correction.

This pattern has played out repeatedly: from the early days of Mt. Gox’s implosion in 2014 to the ICO boom and bust of 2017-2018, and most recently, the deleveraging crisis of 2022 with the collapse of FTX and Three Arrows Capital. Yet, every winter has been followed by an even stronger resurgence, culminating in Bitcoin’s latest bull run spurred by the mainstream adoption of Bitcoin ETFs in 2024.

The Executive Order: A Game Changer

The fundamental question Hougan explores is whether Trump’s recent Executive Order, which prioritizes the development of the digital asset ecosystem in the U.S., will disrupt the established cycle. The order, which outlines a clear regulatory framework and even envisions a national digital asset stockpile, represents the most bullish stance on Bitcoin from any sitting or former U.S. president.

The implications are profound:

Regulatory Clarity: By eliminating legal uncertainty, the EO paves the way for institutional capital to flow into Bitcoin at an unprecedented scale.
Wall Street Integration: With the SEC and financial regulators now pro-crypto, major banks can enter the space, offering Bitcoin custody, lending, and structured products to their clients.
Government Adoption: The concept of a national digital asset stockpile hints at a future where the U.S. Treasury could hold Bitcoin as a reserve asset, solidifying its status as digital gold.

These developments will not play out overnight, but their cumulative effect could fundamentally alter Bitcoin’s market dynamics. Unlike previous cycles that were driven by speculative retail euphoria, this shift is underpinned by institutional adoption and regulatory endorsement—a far more stable foundation.

The End of Crypto Winters?

If history were to repeat itself, Bitcoin would continue its ascent through 2025 before facing a significant pullback in 2026. However, Hougan suggests this time may be different. While he acknowledges the risk of speculative excess and leverage-driven bubbles, he argues that the sheer scale of institutional adoption will prevent the kind of prolonged bear markets seen in the past.

This is a crucial distinction. In previous cycles, Bitcoin lacked a strong base of value-oriented investors. Today, with ETFs making it easier for pensions, hedge funds, and sovereign wealth funds to allocate to Bitcoin, the asset is no longer solely dependent on retail enthusiasm. The result? Corrections may still occur, but they will likely be shallower and shorter-lived.

What Comes Next?

Bitcoin has already crossed the $100,000 mark, and projections from industry leaders, including BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, suggest it could reach $700,000 in the coming years. If Trump’s policies accelerate institutional adoption, the typical four-year pattern could be replaced by a more traditional asset-class growth trajectory—akin to how gold responded to the end of the gold standard in the 1970s.

While risks remain—including unforeseen regulatory reversals and excessive leverage—the direction of travel is clear: Bitcoin is becoming a mainstream financial asset. If the four-year cycle was driven by Bitcoin’s infancy and speculative nature, its maturation may render such cycles obsolete.

Conclusion

For over a decade, investors have used the four-year cycle as a roadmap for Bitcoin’s market movements. But Trump’s Executive Order could be the defining moment that disrupts this pattern, replacing it with a more sustained and institutionally-driven growth phase. As Wall Street, corporations, and even governments increasingly embrace Bitcoin, the question is no longer if crypto winter will come in 2026—but rather if it will come at all.

Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct thorough independent research before making investment decisions.

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Altcoins

Bitcoin Is Enough—Coinbase CEO Rejects Altcoins For Reserves

Published

1 hour ago

March 3, 2025

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They say journalists never truly clock out. But for Christian, that’s not just a metaphor, it’s a lifestyle. By day, he navigates the ever-shifting tides of the cryptocurrency market, wielding words like a seasoned editor and crafting articles that decipher the jargon for the masses. When the PC goes on hibernate mode, however, his pursuits take a more mechanical (and sometimes philosophical) turn.

Christian’s journey with the written word began long before the age of Bitcoin. In the hallowed halls of academia, he honed his craft as a feature writer for his college paper. This early love for storytelling paved the way for a successful stint as an editor at a data engineering firm, where his first-month essay win funded a months-long supply of doggie and kitty treats – a testament to his dedication to his furry companions (more on that later).

Christian then roamed the world of journalism, working at newspapers in Canada and even South Korea. He finally settled down at a local news giant in his hometown in the Philippines for a decade, becoming a total news junkie. But then, something new caught his eye: cryptocurrency. It was like a treasure hunt mixed with storytelling – right up his alley!

So, he landed a killer gig at NewsBTC, where he’s one of the go-to guys for all things crypto. He breaks down this confusing stuff into bite-sized pieces, making it easy for anyone to understand (he salutes his management team for teaching him this skill).

Think Christian’s all work and no play? Not a chance! When he’s not at his computer, you’ll find him indulging his passion for motorbikes. A true gearhead, Christian loves tinkering with his bike and savoring the joy of the open road on his 320-cc Yamaha R3. Once a speed demon who hit 120mph (a feat he vowed never to repeat), he now prefers leisurely rides along the coast, enjoying the wind in his thinning hair.

Speaking of chill, Christian’s got a crew of furry friends waiting for him at home. Two cats and a dog. He swears cats are way smarter than dogs (sorry, Grizzly), but he adores them all anyway. Apparently, watching his pets just chillin’ helps him analyze and write meticulously formatted articles even better.

Here’s the thing about this guy: He works a lot, but he keeps himself fueled by enough coffee to make it through the day – and some seriously delicious (Filipino) food. He says a delectable meal is the secret ingredient to a killer article. And after a long day of crypto crusading, he unwinds with some rum (mixed with milk) while watching slapstick movies.

Looking ahead, Christian sees a bright future with NewsBTC. He says he sees himself privileged to be part of an awesome organization, sharing his expertise and passion with a community he values, and fellow editors – and bosses – he deeply respects.

So, the next time you tread into the world of cryptocurrency, remember the man behind the words – the crypto crusader, the grease monkey, and the feline philosopher, all rolled into one.

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Altcoins

Blow-Off Top Rally Imminent for Bitcoin and Crypto Amid Rise in US Dollar Supply: Economist Henrik Zeberg

Published

3 hours ago

March 3, 2025

admin

A closely followed economist believes that strong rallies are ahead for Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto as he thinks conditions are ripe for policymakers to turn the money printers back on.

Citing data from the Atlanta Federal Reserve, Henrik Zeberg tells his 175,200 followers on the social media platform X that the US GDP is projected to contract by 1.5% in Q1 of 2025.

According to Zeberg, the contraction may force Fed Chair Jerome Powell to abruptly pivot and start printing US dollars to shore up the economy.

“But…. the economy is strong, right Powell…?

The economy is not strong – it is setting up for the worst recession and bear market since 1929.

But first blow-off top as liquidity now will come flushing in.”

Looking at Bitcoin, Zeberg says that its recent collapse to $78,000 is a necessary move to wipe out excessive leverage, making the BTC uptrend more sustainable.

“Fear has been dominating in crypto-land. BTC declined fast to ~$78,000 – just surpassing the daily 200 simple moving average a bit.

This is a healthy test area in a larger BULL MARKET.

In fact, with this updated knowledge of the structure of BTC, it seems like we could witness a strong reversal in BTC setting in soon.”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $92,597, up nearly 9% on the day.

Zeberg adds that stocks and altcoins will also witness blow-off top rallies. However, he warns that a recession is waiting in the wings.

“Unpopular perspectives:

1. BTC is about to soar.

2. Nasdaq and S&P500 will rally strongly.

3. Amazing Altseason about to set in.

Above constitutes the blow-off top.

Later recession is coming.”

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Bitcoin

Ethereum Whales Gobble Up $422,123,359 Worth of Ethereum (ETH) in Just 24 Hours, Says Crypto Analyst

Published

11 hours ago

March 3, 2025

admin

A closely followed crypto analyst says deep-pocketed investors are loading up on the leading smart contract platform Ethereum (ETH).

Citing data from crypto analytics firm Santiment, trader Ali Martinez tells his 129,100 followers on the social media platform X that Ethereum whales accumulated over $422 million worth of ETH in just one day.

“Whales bought another 190,000 Ethereum ETH in the last 24 hours, shows data from Santiment!”

At time of writing, ETH is worth $2,221.

Looking at Bitcoin (BTC), Martinez identifies crucial support and resistance levels for the crypto king based on investor cost basis.

“The strongest resistance for Bitcoin BTC sits at $97,828.56, where 360,470 BTC were accumulated. Meanwhile, the biggest support is at $64,078.53, backed by 194,530 BTC.”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $86,356.

Turning to the top memecoin Dogecoin (DOGE), the analyst says the altcoin is currently respecting a key support level at $0.185.

“Dogecoin DOGE holds above a critical support level!”

At time of writing, DOGE is worth $0.206.

As for the payments altcoin XRP, the crypto strategist says that the fourth-largest coin by market cap may drop to as low as $1.65 as it trades within an ascending channel.

An ascending channel is a pattern suggesting that an asset is in an uptrend as it respects the diagonal support and resistance levels of the structure.

At time of writing, XRP is trading at $2.24.

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