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XRP’s Bull Momentum Strongest Since January 2018 as Futures Open Interest Hits Record High

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Payments-focussed cryptocurrency XRP, which failed to set new price highs during the 2020-21 bull run due to regulatory struggles, is chalking out its fastest ascent in years, with derivatives tied to the token seeing record activity.

The cryptocurrency’s price has surged 50% to seven-year highs above $3 this month, extending the past quarter’s 240% rally, according to data source CoinDesk. Prices have gained 30% in the past seven days alone, lifting the market capitalization to $176.75 billion, the third-highest ahead of stablecoin tether.

XRP is witnessing the fastest observed rally since the altcoin boom of January 2018, according to a popular market analysis tool called the relative strength index (RSI). The measure oscillates between 0 and 100, measuring the speed and change of price movement over specific periods, typically 14 days or 12 months.

XRP's weekly chart with RSI. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

XRP’s weekly chart with RSI. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

XRP’s 14-month RSI has risen to 92, the highest level since October 2017, indicating that the momentum observed over the past 12 months is the strongest over seven years.

Rookie traders would quickly point out that RSI readings above 70 indicate overbought conditions and potential for a bull breather or correction. However, that’s not necessarily the case, as RSI merely measures the speed of price changes over a specific period.

Indicators can continue to flash the so-called overbought reading longer than bears can stay solvent. As the law of motion states: an object in motion will remain in motion unless acted upon by an outside force.

“Crypto continues its recovery from Monday’s drop, with BTC pushing towards the $100k mark. The broader market is rebounding, with altcoins like XRP and XLM standing out. XRP has reclaimed the 3rd spot among cryptocurrencies and surpassed BlackRock’s market cap,” Diego Cardenas, OTC trader at digital asset platform Abra, said in a note to CoinDesk.

“This surge is driven by a growing number of partnerships, the launch of Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD, and speculation about a potential spot XRP ETF,” Cardenas added.

Currently, XRP-specific factors combined with broader crypto market dynamics support the ongoing bullish momentum.

Take trading volumes for example. The spot market tally has tripled to over $23 billion in the past 24 hours, validating the price surge. Meanwhile, volumes in derivatives have more than doubled to $34 billion, according to data source Coingecko and Coinglass.

XRP’s perpetual futures open interest has surged to a record high of 2.34 billion XRP, with funding rates representing the cost of holding leveraged bets hovering around 13%. That’s well below the overheated 100% in early December, which signaled excess bullish leverage. In other words, the XRP market is much healthier and supports continued price gains.

Meanwhile, crypto market leader bitcoin has risen past $100,000, cheering the slowdown in the U.S. core inflation. The strength in bitcoin often translates to increased risk-taking in the broader crypto market.

XRP's perpetual futures open interest. (Coinglass)

XRP’s perpetual futures open interest. (Coinglass)





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Litecoin Price Jumps Double-Digits As ETF Speculation Ramps Up

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The price of Litecoin soared by double-digits in the past 24 hours to reach a four-week high of $118, as optimism brews around the potential approval of a Litecoin-based exchange-traded fund.

At time of publication, Litecoin is trading at around $117, up 15.1% on the day, per data from CoinGecko.

Litecoin’s surge followed Canary Capital’s amendment to its S-1 registration form with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on January 15, a move analysts interpret as a major step toward regulatory engagement.

Such amendments often indicate feedback has been received from regulators, and the changes made can provide clues about the status of the review.

If the SEC gives Canary’s ETF proposal the green light, Litecoin would join Bitcoin and Ethereum as the only cryptocurrencies with U.S.-approved spot ETFs.

The filing prompted commentary from Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, with Balchunas pointing to “chatter that the Litecoin S-1 had gotten comments back from SEC,” arguing that it “bodes well” for predictions that Litecoin is likely to be the next crypto approved for a spot ETF.

On Wednesday, Balchunas cautioned that the SEC’s upcoming leadership transition, with Paul Atkins set to replace Gary Gensler as the agency’s chairman, introduces a “huge variable” in the regulatory outlook.

Seyffart noted while the filing indicates “engagement” from the SEC, it will require a 19b-4 submission—a regulatory filing that formally starts the clock for approval or denial—to advance the process.

Canary Capital’s amendments focused on its proposed agreements with crypto custodians Coinbase and BitGo, addressing custodial arrangements to meet SEC standards.

The filing includes updates related to accounting, marketing, legal, and tax provisions, ensuring its alignment with the SEC’s with regulatory requirements.

Analysts believe these revisions could expedite the SEC’s review process.

Blockchain analytics firm Santiment noted increased activity among large Litecoin holders, with “whales” and “sharks” accumulating approximately 250,000 LTC worth $29 million since January 9.

Despite the rally, Litecoin remains 72% below its all-time high of $410 reached in May 2021, leaving room for growth if regulatory approval is secured.

Competition among altcoins to secure the next U.S. spot crypto ETF is heating up, with firms including Bitwise and VanEck already having filed 19b-4 forms for Solana ETFs—giving them a procedural edge.

Analysts at JPMorgan predict significant inflows to approved crypto ETFs, estimating that Solana and XRP ETFs could collectively attract $14 billion in their first year.

The market is closely watching the transition in SEC leadership as Paul Atkins assumes the chairmanship.

Known for his crypto-friendly stance, the community expects Atkins would create a more favorable environment for crypto ETF approvals.

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VanEck Files New ‘Onchain Economy’ ETF to Target Crypto Infrastructure, Not Coins

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Asset management firm VanEck filed for a new exchange-traded fund (ETF) on Wednesday, targeting companies building infrastructure for digital assets.

Notably, the fund’s structure avoids direct crypto exposure, as is usual from other ETFs, but maintains exposure to the digital asset markets it compiles.

The Onchain Economy ETF seeks to allocate at least 80% of its assets to “Digital Transformation Companies” and digital asset instruments, according to a January 15 SEC filing reviewed by Decrypt.

These companies include crypto exchanges, payment gateways, mining operations, and firms providing infrastructure services.

It also seeks to invest in firms providing the core technology, infrastructure, and data center capacities that support digital asset operations.

“Digital Transformation Companies are selected based on a combination of fundamental analysis, market trends, the company’s strategic positioning within the digital asset ecosystem, and valuation,” VanEck stated in the filing.

For digital asset instruments, however, VanEck notes in the filing that while it seeks to “target investments that offer exposure to the largest digital assets by market capitalization,” this fund would exclude stablecoins.

It is unclear whether this description also pertains to stablecoin issuers more broadly or only to their products and offerings. VanEck did not immediately return Decrypt’s request for comment.

The fund plans to establish a Cayman Islands subsidiary to manage certain digital asset investments, with exposure capped at 25% of total assets each quarter.

VanEck’s latest filing follows a wave of new crypto ETF filings. In November, Bitwise submitted plans for a 10 Crypto Index Fund ETF, while Grayscale filed a request to convert its Solana Trust into an ETF in December last year.

Wednesday’s filing follows VanEck’s closure of its Ethereum futures ETF in September last year.

VanEck Head of Digital Assets Matthew Sigel deleted a post about the filing, likely due to regulatory restrictions in which the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission prohibits disclosure of certain details while a proposal is under review.

Edited by Sebastian Sinclair

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Bitcoin Smashes $99,000 as Inflation Rises to 2.9% in December

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Consumer prices rose as expected in December, a potentially positive sign for risk assets battered by this month’s shifting outlook on Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks price changes across a broad range of goods and services, rose 2.9% in the 12 months through December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday.

“Markets had been losing some faith on the disinflation thesis and the idea of Fed rate cuts,” Grayscale’s Head of Research Zach Pandl told Decrypt. “I think this report puts Fed rate cuts back on the table.”

Wednesday’s inflation print was highly anticipated, following data that suggested the U.S. economy was humming along at a stronger-than-expected pace last week. Bitcoin’s price started at $102,000—only to dip below $93,000 after Friday’s blowout jobs reading.

The Bitcoin price immediately jumped following Wednesday’s inflation snapshot, increasing 1.9% and briefly surpassing $99,000 in around 30 minutes. Meanwhile, the price of Ethereum and Solana were also bolstered by the fresh inflation figures, rising to $3,300 and $192, respectively.

Bitcoin has held onto a significant chunk of its post-election gains, but inflation fears have eaten away at them since the cryptocurrency’s price peaked at $108,000 last month.

On a month-to-month basis, consumer prices rose 0.4% in December, slightly outpacing inflation from the previous month. Prior to that, monthly inflation clocked in at 0.2% from July through October.

Inflation has come down significantly in the U.S. from a four-decade high of 9.1% in 2022, but it still remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Despite easing financial conditions last year, Fed policymakers have signaled their quest to tame rising prices may not be over yet.

Policymakers believe that potential shifts in immigration and trade policy under President-elect Donald Trump could present upside risks to inflation, Fed minutes released last week showed. Taking that into consideration, the Fed indicated last month that it would likely cut rates by 25 basis points just two times this year, down from its previous projection of four rate cuts.

Given the U.S. economy’s recent strength, some analysts believe that the Fed’s easing campaign could already be over. Traders penciled in a 53% chance Wednesday that the Fed cuts rates once in 2025, or not even at all, according to CME FedWatch. That was notably down from 70% Tuesday.

Pandl said that Wednesday’s report brought about the lowest core CPI reading since July at 3.2%, coming in below economists’ expectations of 3.3%. Economists view core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, as a better gauge for underlying trends.

“Before this report, the market was only pricing in one rate cut this year,” he said. “The idea that we could have Fed rate hikes this year is not in sight after this report.”

Lower interest rates tend to be supportive of risk assets like stock and crypto. They can contribute to inflation through lower borrowing costs and increased spending.

Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be released after the U.S. central bank’s meeting later this month. Amid signs of the economy’s strength, traders are all but certain that the central bank will hold rates steady.

Edited by Stacy Elliott.

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