A prominent crypto pundit has outlined a compelling case for the Bitcoin price outlook, predicting a surge to a target as high as $260,000 this bull cycle. However, a critical invalidation level stands in the way of this bullish scenario, threatening Bitcoin’s projected rally if breached. 

On March 26, Gert van Lagen, a well-known crypto analyst on the X social media platform, predicted that the Bitcoin price could hit a bullish target between $200,000 and $300,000. The analyst’s chart suggests that Bitcoin’s price action in the past few years has closely followed a classic market cycle structure, moving through the Accumulation, Redistribution, Re-accumulation, and Distribution phases. 

Bitcoin Price Eyes New ATH Above $260,000

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After consolidating for seven months in mid-2023 – early 2024, Bitcoin formed a range, allowing the market to absorb supply before another price breakout. Notably, this trend continued in 2025, with BTC breaking out of a seven-month re-accumulation phase.

Based on the trajectory of Lagen’s price chart, Bitcoin’s next leg up is a sharp rise to $240,000, followed by a brief correction before rallying to a price peak between $290,000 and $300,000. After hitting this ATH, the analyst predicts that Bitcoin will decline and undergo a period of choppy trading, experiencing price fluctuations between $220,000 and $260,000. 

Interestingly, Bitcoin’s projected rise to an ATH and the following sideways trading are expected to occur during its distribution phase, which is typically characterized by increased sell-offs and market volatility. Once BTC experiences a final surge to $260,000, Lagen predicts a price crash toward $148,000 – $136,000, marking the possible end of the bull rally and the start of the bear market. 

Key Invalidation Level Threatening BTC’s Rally

Lagen’s optimistic price forecast for Bitcoin is being threatened by a key invalidation level, which could halt the cryptocurrency’s potential surge to $200,000 – $300,000. Although Bitcoin’s bullish structure remains intact, the analyst warns that a weekly close below the 40-week LSMA would invalidate its breakout. 

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As of writing, the Bitcoin price is consolidating above this key invalidation level at $73,900. As long as it holds above this level, Lagen believes that its bullish trajectory will be sustained. However, a drop below $73,900, which already represents a 15% decline from BTC’s current market price, could postpone the projected surge or cancel it altogether.

Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) showed strength over the weekend after a 2.45% rally to the upside. This minor rally aligns with the US stock market’s positive outlook and rising global liquidity, which promotes a risk-on behavior among investors. With the global liquidity index’s Z score flashing a buy signal, Bitcoin price could be set for explosive growth in the near future.

Bitcoin Price Today

Bitcoin price today is up 1.39%, continuing its weekend rally, slowly approaching the $90,000 psychological level. BTC saw a 4.24% gain last week, marking the second positive week after a brutal 15% sell-off in the first week of March.

Odds of BTC Rally Improves as Global Liquidity Explodes

According to data provider Alpha Edge, the traditional Global Liquidity Index is not a great tool to track. However, the Z-score of this metric shows that every time the liquidity index has fallen to -3, it was a strong buy signal. On the other hand, a +3 reading of the Z score is a sell signal. After the early March crash, the Global Liquidity Index flashed a buy signal, suggesting that an explosive uptrend is next for BTC price.

“The Divergence metric between Global Liquidity and Bitcoin has flashed a rare green buy signal. Historically, every green buy or red sell offered a good opportunity to add or sell.”

With abundant liquidity, risk-on behaviour is a must, as seen in late 2021 and 2023, which were followed by periods of exponential rally in BTC price.

Reduced Selling Pressure Points to Bullish Bitcoin Outlook 

Adding credence to this outlook is the net Taker Volume indicator that has been reducing since late February 2025. A decline in this metric shows that the selling pressure is dwindling, which further hints at a potential bullish reversal in Bitcoin price trend. 

Analyst Axel Adler Jr, who pointed out this outlook, says,

“In the absence of negative macroeconomic or market catalysts, the current week holds potential for moderate growth.”

In conclusion, the two positive weekly closes, coupled with increasing global liquidity and declining taker volume, hint at a bullish Bitcoin price prediction. Let’s explore key BTC levels to watch for when this scenario unfolds.

Key BTC Price Levels to Watch as $1.5B Positions At Risk of Liquidation

Liquidation map data from CoinGlass shows that $87,813 is critical; a BTC price breakout above this could liquidate $640 million worth of short positions. On the contrary, a breakdown below $85,633 will liquidate $942 million in long positions

In total, a spike in Bitcoin price below $85,633 followed by a continuation of the uptrend toward $90K could result in a liquidation event earily worth more than $1.5 billion.

Conclusion

The combination of the Global Liquidity Index’s Z score flashing a buy signal, declining net Taker Volume, and positive weekly closes suggests that Bitcoin price is set for an explosive growth in the near future.

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Akash Girimath

Senior Cryptocurrency Analyst & Market Strategist
Engineer-turned-analyst Akash Girimath delivers data-driven insights on cryptocurrency markets, DeFi, and blockchain technology for platforms like AMBCrypto and FXStreet. Specializing in technical analysis, on-chain analytics, and risk management, he empowers institutional investors and retail traders to navigate market volatility and regulatory shifts.

A hands-on strategist, Akash merges active crypto portfolio management with research on Web3, NFTs, and tokenomics. At AMBCrypto, he led cross-functional teams to redesign content frameworks, achieving record-breaking traffic growth through scalable editorial strategies. His analyses dissect market sentiment, investment strategies, and price predictions, blending macroeconomic trends with real-world trading expertise.

Known for mentoring analysts and optimizing workflows for high-impact reporting, Akash’s work is cited across global crypto publications, reaching 500k+ monthly readers. Follow his insights on YouTube, X, and LinkedIn for cutting-edge perspectives on decentralized ecosystems and crypto innovation.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.