Markets

The 7 Oddest Political Betting Pools on Polymarket

Published

2 months ago

August 11, 2024

Political turmoil in the U.S. has prompted surging interest in the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, with users wagering hundreds of millions of dollars on the outcome of the presidential election in November.

Polymarket allows anyone to create a market to wager the outcome of nearly any event. With fewer than 90 days until the election, political betting pools are on the rise. In July, activity on the platform surged, with close to 40,000 traders collectively betting well over $300 million across all sorts of pools.

While much of the money allocated to Polymarket pools has gone to the most popular wagers—such as who will be the next U.S. president—other investors have taken a more unorthodox approach.

Indeed, pools have emerged to cover a host of unusual political scenarios. These are some of the most curious political betting pools currently on Polymarket—some of which are real head-scratchers.

Will Harris Campaign Accept Crypto Donations This Month?

As of this writing, users have put up just over $53,000 to bet on whether Kamala Harris’ campaign will accept crypto donations by September.

For crypto enthusiasts, the odds currently available on Polymarket don’t look promising: at this point the pool gives only a 14% chance that this outcome will come to pass sometime in the month of August.

Note that, in order to resolve to a “yes” outcome, the campaign only needs to announce its intention to accept crypto donations in August, not actually implement a donation mechanism.

Will Trump Launch a Coin Before the Election?

Polymarket users have placed bets on whether Donald Trump will launch a cryptocurrency prior to the election. The outcome will be “yes” if “conclusive, definitive evidence” emerges that Trump was involved in the launch of a new token by the end of the day on November 4.

More than $263,000 is currently on the table for this bet, though the pool gives 19% odds of a favorable outcome—rising significantly after Trump’s sons, Eric and Donald Trump Jr. teased that they’re working on a “huge” crypto project.

Will Trump Be in Jail Before Election Day?

If Trump spends at least 48 consecutive hours in custody in a jail or prison prior to the election in November, “yes” voters in this pool will win a payout. This pool has been in place since January of this year and the odds of a “yes” outcome have climbed as high as 25%, though they are currently just 5%. Over $1.4 million rides on this outcome.

Will Trump Be President By September 1?

One of the wackiest political pools of all is one concerning a scenario in which Trump becomes president before September 1 of this year.

This date is ahead of both the election and next January’s inauguration date, so it would theoretically require Trump to be the Speaker of the House and to succeed both President Biden and Vice President Harris in the next month. Perhaps unsurprisingly, this outcome has only done as well as 2%, and now has 0% odds.

Covid Lab Leak Confirmed By U.S. in 2024?

Some of the unusual political pools on Polymarket do not revolve around the upcoming election. One example is a pool, currently representing $276,000 in total bets, on whether the U.S. government will confirm that the initial COVID-19 virus came from a lab. At this writing, the odds of a “yes” outcome are just 8%.

Will the U.S. Confirm That Aliens Exist in 2024?

Conspiracy theorists may choose to focus on another wild Polymarket pool, in this case questioning whether the U.S. government confirms that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before the end of the year. About $115,000 rests on this outcome for now, though at 4%, it has roughly the same odds as Trump spending two days in prison prior to Election Day.

Will A New Country Buy Bitcoin in 2024?

Another pool particularly relevant to crypto enthusiasts asks whether a new country will buy Bitcoin for the first time this year. Any sovereign UN member state which has not previously disclosed a Bitcoin purchase has the potential to ensure a “yes” outcome by making an announcement of this type. Over $73,000 rides on this outcome, which currently has a 39% chance of occurring, per Polymarket.

Edited by Ryan Ozawa

Start every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.

Source link

cryptocurrency

Top cryptocurrencies to watch this week

Published

4 hours ago

October 6, 2024

admin

The global crypto market cap ended last week with a 7% drop, losing $160 billion as it closed at $2.15 trillion.

While Bitcoin (BTC) influenced the broader market, several altcoins charted their own paths, benefiting from unique developments within their ecosystems.

Here are some of these cryptocurrencies to keep an eye on this week, following their diverse price movements last week:

HMSTR collapses 18%

Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) saw a bearish week, dropping 18% to $0.004714. Its worst day came on Oct. 1 when it fell 13.94% amid a broader market decline on the back of geopolitical tensions.

HMSTR, SUI, FTT: Top cryptocurrencies to watch this week - 1 — HMSTR 4H chart – Oct. 6 | Source: crypto.news

Last week’s bearishness built on a downtrend HMSTR has faced since its airdrop on Sept. 26. However, the four-hour chart shows some signs of recovery, with the RSI sloping upward, now at 42.82.

For the DMI, the +DI is steady at 17.46, signaling slight buyer momentum. However, the -DI at 23.07 slopes downward, indicating weakening selling pressure. The ADX is at 22.68 and trending downward, as the current trend loses strength.

These figures suggest a possible recovery if buying momentum continues, with bulls possibly targeting $0.0051. However, the downtrend may persist if buyers do not pick up pace this week.

SUI demonstrates resilience

Sui (SUI) showed resilience despite broader market volatility, dropping only 0.3%. On Oct. 1, amid market turmoil, SUI dipped just 0.97%.

However, it saw a sharper 10.38% decline on Oct. 3, its largest intraday crash in three months.

HMSTR, SUI, FTT: Top cryptocurrencies to watch this week - 2 — SUI 1D chart – Oct. 6 | Source: crypto.news

SUI appears to be forming a bull pennant following its uptrend in September. Currently, the Bollinger Bands indicate the upper band at $1.97, which acts as resistance, and the 20-day MA at $1.62 provides immediate support.

With SUI trading below the upper band, the price could stabilize above the $1.62 support.

Investors should monitor for a bounce between $1.62 and $1.97, with a breakout above the resistance likely signaling bullish momentum for the week.

FTT bucks the trend

FTX Token (FTT) defied market trends last week, gaining 22% while most assets declined.

On Oct. 1, FTT rose by 13.89%, followed by a 21.53% surge on Oct. 4 and another 9.86% the next day.

HMSTR, SUI, FTT: Top cryptocurrencies to watch this week - 3 — FTT 1D chart – Oct. 6 | Source: crypto.news

Amid this uptrend, the Williams Percent Range stands at -32.59, signaling that FTT is near overbought territory but still has room for further gains.

As it witnesses a 9% retracement this new week, bulls need to defend the Pivot support at $2.01 to prevent a slip into bearish territories. Below this, the next support rests at $1.33, marking lows last seen in two weeks.

Should FTT recover from the latest correction, market participants should watch for a break above the resistance level at $2.68, which continues the bullish momentum.

Source link

Bitcoin

Whales didn’t sell Bitcoin at $62k, on-chain data shows

Published

7 hours ago

October 6, 2024

admin

Bitcoin faces yet another correction after surpassing the $62,000 mark on Oct. 2. However, data shows that whales haven’t taken part in the latest selloff.

Bitcoin (BTC) consolidated around the $60,000 zone between Oct. 1 and 4 as the geopolitical tension between Iran and Israel heated up.

Right after the U.S. jobs report, the flagship cryptocurrency reached a local high of $62,370 on Oct. 5 as the broader crypto market witnessed bullish momentum.

Whales didn’t sell Bitcoin at $62k, on-chain data shows - 1 — BTC price – Oct. 6 | Source: crypto.news

Bitcoin declined by 0.2% in the past 24 hours and is trading at $61,950 at the time of writing. Its daily trading volume plunged by 53% and is currently hovering at $12.2 billion.

According to data provided by IntoTheBlock, large Bitcoin holders recorded a net inflow of 205 BTC on Oct. 5 as the outflows remained neutral. The on-chain indicator shows that whales didn’t sell Bitcoin as its price surpassed the $62,000 mark.

Whales didn’t sell Bitcoin at $62k, on-chain data shows - 2 — BTC whale net flows – Oct. 6 | Source: IntoTheBlock

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s whale transaction volume decreased by 48% on Oct. 5 — falling from $48 billion to $25 billion worth of BTC. Lower trading and transaction volumes usually hint at price consolidations and lower volatility.

Data from ITB shows that Bitcoin registered a net outflow of $153 million from centralized exchanges over the past week. Increased exchange outflows suggest accumulation as the bullish expectations for October rise.

It’s important to note that macroeconomic events and geopolitical tension can suddenly change the direction of financial markets, including crypto.

Source link