Arthur Hayes
Here’s How Democrats Will Induce Stock Market Rallies Before November Election, According to Arthur Hayes
Published
1 month agoon
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adminCrypto veteran Arthur Hayes says the Democrats could stealthily print dollars to trigger stock market rallies before the presidential election.
In a new essay, the BitMEX founder says Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign will likely see a big boost if the stock market is booming.
But the unwinding of the yen carry trade has triggered a $6.4 trillion global stock market wipeout last week with the S&P 500 witnessing its worst trading day since 2022.
In Japan, droves of investors borrowed cheap yen and invested the funds in risk assets that have the potential for high growth such as stocks to generate profits. But when Japan’s central bank raised its interest rate late last month, the yen appreciated, driving investors to sell risk assets, buy yen and pay back what they borrowed.
The increased demand for the yen drove the currency higher, forcing more investors to unwind positions as the appreciating yen threatened to eat into their gains. The dynamic led to more selling pressure as people sold their assets in panic.
Hayes says that Harris can stop the stock market rout by instructing Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to bail out Japanese investors in a stealth operation that involves the Fed lending US dollars to the Bank of Japan (BOJ) using the yen as collateral.
According to Hayes, the operation will allow the BOJ to keep the value of the yen in check by printing more currency to borrow US dollars. For the US, Hayes believes the newly printed dollars will induce rallies in the stock and bond markets, putting Harris in a better position to win the election.
“Most importantly, US stocks and bonds [rise] in price due to the Fed printing dollars. An additional bonus is that Japanese banks can issue an infinite amount of yen-denominated loans with their newfound JGB collateral. This trade reflates the system in both the US and Japan.”
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Arthur Hayes Closes Bitcoin Price Short Position, Predicts Crypto Market Recovery
Published
2 weeks agoon
September 8, 2024By
adminBillionaire crypto investor and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes anticipates crypto market recovery as US dollar liquidity is rising again. Hayes has also closed his short position on Bitcoin price, making a 3% profit on the recent market meltdown.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt revealed that Bitcoin price chart is forming a massive inverted head-and-shoulders pattern which is extremely bullish against gold.
Arthur Hayes Predicts Crypto Market Recovery
In an X post on September 8, crypto billionaire Arthur Hayes disclosed that he closed his Bitcoin short position. He predicts Bitcoin price and crypto market recovery next week, completely shifting away from his sub-$50K forecast earlier.
As CoinGape reported earlier, whales started buying the dips as sentiment turned towards a downfall below the $50K level.
The move comes in response to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s market oversight and statement. Hayes says Bitcoin may gain upside momentum due to expectations of increased dollar liquidity.
Bad Gurl Yellen is watching, if markets go down more she will definitely pump up the jam by printing more money. pic.twitter.com/L81vc07as9
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) September 7, 2024
In addition, Peter Brandt also turned away from earlier forecasts of a $46K low for Bitcoin. In response to BTC critic Peter Schiff, veteran trader Brandt said Bitcoin is bullish against gold as it sees massive inverted H&S pattern formation.
Notably, crypto market sentiment has slightly improved from “extreme fear” to “fear” over the last day. Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbed from 23 to 29 today.
Can Bitcoin Price Recover Despite CPI and PPI Inflation Data?
Crypto traders are still uncertain about crypto market recovery due to the upcoming consumer price index (CPI) on Wednesday and producer price index (PPI) on Thursday. Moreover, the spot Bitcoin ETF market lacks support from institutional investors due to September woes, with nearly $700 million in net outflow last week.
Economists and Wall Street expect the CPI to cool further to 2.6%, down from 2.9%. The slowing labor market and cooling inflation would give the FOMC enough reason to cut interest rates by 50 bps in September.
The CME Fed Watch tool currently indicates a 70% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in September. Also, a total of 100 bps Fed rate cuts this year.
Moreover, while the US dollar index (DXY) has climbed back above 101, the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped to 3.716%, a 15-month low due to softening labor market. This is in favor of Bitcoin price.
CoinGape analysis predicts high odds of Bitcoin price rally. Traders are watching the 50-week EMA, which also played a pivotal role in supporting the 2020 and 2021 bull market correction. If history repeats, a rebound from the 50-week EMA could drive BTC higher, likely triggering the bull run.
The next coming days into CPI Bitcoin will set the market direction for upcoming weeks. BTC price is currently trading at $54,300 and facing resistance after the slight rebound. A descending trendline breakout may target $57,000 if BTC successfully crosses above $55, 508, a 0.236 Fib retracement level.
Varinder Singh
Varinder has 10 years of experience in the Fintech sector, with over 5 years dedicated to blockchain, crypto, and Web3 developments. Being a technology enthusiast and analytical thinker, he has shared his knowledge of disruptive technologies in over 5000+ news, articles, and papers. With CoinGape Media, Varinder believes in the huge potential of these innovative future technologies. He is currently covering all the latest updates and developments in the crypto industry.
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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Arthur Hayes
Bitcoin 200-Day Average Signals Waning Bullish Momentum, Here’s What It Means For BTC Price
Published
2 weeks agoon
September 7, 2024By
adminA key long-term price indicator for Bitcoin, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) appears to be losing its bullish momentum as the US economy added fewer jobs in August 2024.
Bitcoin Must Overcome The 200-Day SMA To Reverse Trend
The 200-day SMA is considered one of the more reliable long-term indicators to gauge an asset’s upcoming price action. Bitcoin’s 200-day SMA shows a weakening bullish momentum, giving short-term traders little joy.
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Notably, this is the first time since October 2023 that the 200-day SMA looks poised to enter bearish territory. Since late August, the daily increase in average price increases for BTC has not crossed $50, while it used to consistently record moves of more than $200 per day during the first half of 2024.
At press time, the 200-day SMA stood at $63,840, about 13.96% higher than the current BTC price of $56,840.
It’s worth highlighting that short-term moving average indicators such as the 50-day SMA and the 100-day SMA are already past their peak and have been trending downward. A bearish crossover was seen recently when the 100-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA.
According to cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez, the Stochastic relative-strength index (RSI) has signaled a trend reversal from bullish to bearish on the Bitcoin 2-month chart. If going by historical data, such a move has typically led to a significant correction of up to 75.50%.
In addition, Google Trends shows that searches for the word “Bitcoin” have been at their lowest since October 2023, when BTC was hovering around $30,000.
Adding to the overall bearish sentiment surrounding the leading digital asset, former CEO of BitMEX cryptocurrency exchange Arthur Hayes posted on X that he’s currently short Bitcoin and could see the crypto-asset crash to sub $50k level over the weekend.
In contrast, other market experts opine that Bitcoin will likely bottom at $55,000 before the influx of US liquidity helps re-ignite the severely lacking buying pressure in the crypto markets.
Bitcoin’s Fundamentals Remain Intact
Although several crypto analysts seem to lean bearish on Bitcoin’s short-term price movements, the long-term bull case for the leading digital asset remains unchanged.
Crypto analyst Crypto Jelle posits that Bitcoin’s tepid price action during the summer might reach its conclusion by early October before it could potentially resume another rally to the upside.
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Institutional interest in Bitcoin also continues to rise, as Swiss banking giant ZKB recently rolled out Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) trading and custody services for its customers. At press time, BTC trades at $56,018.
Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
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