As analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $250K, how might Trump’s promises influence this potential? What should you be watching for in the coming months?

Trump triumphs

Donald Trump is back in the Oval Office, officially winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election as the 47th president. After a high-energy election night celebration at Mar-a-Lago with guests including Elon Musk and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., digital asset markets surged in response.

Bitcoin (BTC) rocketed past $75,000, reaching a fresh all-time high, while crypto-linked stocks like Coinbase and MicroStrategy saw strong after-hours gains.

For crypto supporters, Trump’ win signals more than just another GOP presidency, especially as he has made bold commitments to protect crypto, a notable departure from the past, when Trump’ stance on digital assets was anything but warm.

Moreover, with Trump’ Republican allies securing a Senate majority, the path is now open for the policies he hinted at throughout his campaign—policies that could reshape the future of crypto in both the U.S. and globally.

So, what promises has he made, and what should we expect from his term? Let’s find out.

Trump’s promises to the crypto industry

Bold vision for a national crypto stockpile

One of Trump’ biggest promises to the crypto world is to create what he calls a “strategic national crypto stockpile.” In simple terms, Trump aims to prevent the government from auctioning off seized Bitcoin, instead holding onto it as a national asset.

Trump believes that, just as countries hold reserves of gold or oil, the U.S. should secure a portion of Bitcoin to hedge against future financial uncertainties.

Currently, the U.S. government often auctions off Bitcoin seized from criminal cases, such as after the Bitfinex hack, but Trump has suggested putting a halt to these sales.

This promise is crucial, given that the U.S. Marshals Service has regularly auctioned Bitcoin holdings, sometimes causing temporary market dips. Earlier this year, Germany’s sale of hundreds of millions in seized Bitcoin led to similar price swings.

While Trump hasn’t provided a concrete plan for how this reserve would be managed, some view it as a step toward positioning the U.S. as a global crypto leader.

Creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve

One of Trump’ more intriguing promises is to establish a “strategic Bitcoin reserve” for the U.S. His idea is to retain Bitcoin seized from criminal activities, rather than auctioning it off, to gradually build a substantial national Bitcoin reserve.

This proposal gained further traction when Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced a bill to create a “Bitcoin strategic reserve,” aiming to accumulate one million BTC over five years as a hedge against the national debt.

If realized, this reserve could signal a shift in the U.S. approach to crypto, positioning Bitcoin as a strategic asset on par with gold or foreign currency reserves.

Promise to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler “on day one”

Trump has also set his sights on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, pledging to fire its current chair, Gary Gensler, on his first day in office.

Appointed by President Joe Biden, Gensler has led an aggressive crackdown on the crypto industry, initiating over 100 enforcement actions against crypto companies for alleged securities violations since he 

Gensler’ stance — that much of the crypto industry falls under SEC jurisdiction — has sparked frustration among industry players, who argue they need clearer guidelines, not constant lawsuits.

However, Trump’ promise may not be as straightforward to execute. While the president can appoint the SEC chair, dismissing one requires valid grounds, like neglect or inefficiency, due to the SEC’ independent status.

Legal experts caution that firing Gensler “on day one” could prompt a lengthy review and may not happen as swiftly as Trump suggests.

Still, if Trump does manage to appoint a new SEC chair, it could mark a shift toward more crypto-friendly policies — though how much freedom the new leadership would truly have remains uncertain.

A national push for Bitcoin mining

Another bold promise from Trump is his call to ensure that all remaining Bitcoin is mined within the U.S. He envisions Bitcoin mining as “Made in the USA,” aiming to establish America as a global hub for the industry.

This vision was echoed during a private Mar-a-Lago meeting with key figures in U.S. crypto mining, including executives from major companies like Riot Platforms, Marathon Digital, and Core Scientific.

Trump’ goal aligns with his broader agenda of “energy dominance” for the U.S., believing that Bitcoin mining could boost energy production and decrease reliance on foreign energy sources.

However, the path to this goal is challenging. Bitcoin mining is decentralized by nature, relying on thousands of miners across the globe. Centralizing it within one country would contradict the decentralized ethos on which Bitcoin was built.

Moreover, about 90% of Bitcoin’ total supply has already been mined, leaving only a small yet symbolically significant portion — around 10% — that Trump hopes to bring under U.S. control.

Stopping the central bank digital currency development

Trump has also pledged to block any progress toward a central bank digital currency in the U.S. He made his stance clear: “There will never be a CBDC while I’m president”, citing that CBDCs pose a potential threat to financial privacy.

Unlike decentralized cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, a CBDC would be fully controlled by the government, potentially allowing for extensive surveillance of citizens’ transactions.

Trump’ position aligns with other Republican leaders, such as Ron DeSantis, who recently signed a bill in Florida to limit CBDC use within the state.

Opposition to CBDCs is also building in Congress. Representative Tom Emmer introduced the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act, aiming to prevent the Federal Reserve from issuing a CBDC without congressional approval.

The right to self-custody

Trump has also pledged to enshrine self-custody rights for crypto users into federal law, reinforcing the principle that “not your keys, not your coins” should be protected by the U.S. government.

Self-custody allows crypto holders to manage their private keys independently, ensuring they fully control their digital assets without relying on third parties like exchanges.

This promise aligns with recent legislative efforts by Republican Senator Ted Budd, who introduced the Keep Your Coins Act in 2023. The bill aims to safeguard Americans’ ability to transact with self-hosted crypto wallets, making it harder for regulators to impose restrictions on self-custody.

However, the proposal has sparked debate. Critics argue that self-custody could enable bad actors to evade anti-money laundering regulations, a concern highlighted by Senator Elizabeth Warren’ 2022 Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act, which advocates for tighter controls.

While the crypto community largely views self-custody as an essential right, questions remain about how such laws might affect the balance between personal freedom and regulatory oversight.

A crypto-friendly advisory council

One of Trump’ more structural promises is to establish a dedicated “crypto advisory council” to guide his administration’s approach to crypto policy.

The goal of this council would be to create clear, industry-friendly regulations that support crypto growth rather than stifle it. 

As Trump puts it, he wants “the rules to be written by people who love your industry, not hate it,” ensuring that crypto policies reflect a deep understanding of the industry’s needs and challenges.

Many industry insiders have voiced concerns that current regulations lack clarity, making it difficult for companies to operate within legal boundaries.

However, setting up such a council presents its own challenges, such as ensuring a diversity of perspectives and maintaining unbiased oversight.

Commuting Ross Ulbricht’s sentence

In a more controversial promise, Trump has vowed to commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht, founder of the Silk Road marketplace.

Ulbricht, a first-time nonviolent offender, received a double life sentence plus 40 years without parole—a punishment many view as excessively harsh. Silk Road, the darknet marketplace he created, facilitated the trade of illegal goods, from drugs to weapons, with Bitcoin as the primary currency.

Ulbricht’ case has become a rallying point within the crypto and libertarian communities, where advocates argue that his sentence was disproportionate to the nature of his crime.

Critics, however, contend that his involvement in Silk Road fueled illegal activities and harmed individuals, making any consideration of leniency a sensitive issue.

What to expect from Trump’s crypto term

Recent tweets from crypto analysts reflect a mood of optimism as Trump’ presidency begins.

Michaël van de Poppe, a prominent crypto analyst, describes the current state of crypto as the end of the “longest and heaviest Altcoin bear market.” 

Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, is likely to be prohibited by France’s gambling regulator, the ANJ, after a huge amount of bets were placed on the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Since the global audience engaged in prediction platforms, Polymarket experienced a record jump, with $450 million expected to be distributed to users following the victory of Donald Trump.

This increase of betting volume and large stakes has become a matter of concern for the French regulator because the platform offers unlicensed gambling services.

$450 Million in Payouts Expected After U.S. Election Bets

Prediction markets, which are expected to increase their payout to election bettors to around $450m following Donald Trump’s projected win, are attracting increasing attention. 

Although conventional polls pointed to a closer contest, prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi recorded a steep rise in Trump’s chances in the last few days, indicating a strong divergence with poll-based expectations.

Among the active users of Polymarket, a French trader called “Theo” made a $26 million bet on Trump’s win and won $49 million. This big bet made Polymarket popular, as the French authorities paid attention to the platform and its popularity among French residents, which led to concerns about the compliance of the platform with French gambling legislation.

France’s ANJ Considers Blocking Access to Polymarket

The ANJ has claimed that Polymarket is involved in gambling which is only allowed in France by licensed operators. According to local media, the regulator has the power to ban access to unlicensed gambling sites and is expected to restrict access to Polymarket soon. 

An ANJ insider said: “Polymarket is just betting on something that is completely uncertain, which is exactly what gambling is.”

If put in place, the ban would prevent the usage of the application in France, despite the fact that users can still try to avoid the restriction by connecting to VPN. The ANJ could also try to influence media outlets and directories to stop advertising or linking to Polymarket and, thus, limit its audiences even more.

Regulatory Concerns Over Market Manipulation

The high level of activity on Polymarket has led to speculations that the platform may be used for market manipulation. Two blockchain analysis firms, Chaos Labs and Inca Digital, recently revealed that there was potential wash trading within Polymarket’s U.S. presidential betting market where the same assets are bought and sold to simply create a fake market. This type of trading is rather manipulative and can lead to the distortion of signals on the market and mislead other participants.

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission also has concerns about prediction markets and put forward a rule in May aiming at stricter regulation of such markets due to the potential for manipulation.

Although no final decision has been reached, regulatory actions could impact Polymarket’s ability to operate freely in other markets, including the U.S.

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Kelvin Munene Murithi

Kelvin is a distinguished writer with expertise in crypto and finance, holding a Bachelor’s degree in Actuarial Science. Known for his incisive analysis and insightful content, he possesses a strong command of English and excels in conducting thorough research and delivering timely cryptocurrency market updates.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.