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Polymarket Faces French Ban After Massive Bets On US Election Results

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Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, is likely to be prohibited by France’s gambling regulator, the ANJ, after a huge amount of bets were placed on the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Since the global audience engaged in prediction platforms, Polymarket experienced a record jump, with $450 million expected to be distributed to users following the victory of Donald Trump.

This increase of betting volume and large stakes has become a matter of concern for the French regulator because the platform offers unlicensed gambling services.

$450 Million in Payouts Expected After U.S. Election Bets

Prediction markets, which are expected to increase their payout to election bettors to around $450m following Donald Trump’s projected win, are attracting increasing attention. 

Although conventional polls pointed to a closer contest, prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi recorded a steep rise in Trump’s chances in the last few days, indicating a strong divergence with poll-based expectations.

Among the active users of Polymarket, a French trader called “Theo” made a $26 million bet on Trump’s win and won $49 million. This big bet made Polymarket popular, as the French authorities paid attention to the platform and its popularity among French residents, which led to concerns about the compliance of the platform with French gambling legislation.

France’s ANJ Considers Blocking Access to Polymarket

The ANJ has claimed that Polymarket is involved in gambling which is only allowed in France by licensed operators. According to local media, the regulator has the power to ban access to unlicensed gambling sites and is expected to restrict access to Polymarket soon. 

An ANJ insider said: “Polymarket is just betting on something that is completely uncertain, which is exactly what gambling is.”

If put in place, the ban would prevent the usage of the application in France, despite the fact that users can still try to avoid the restriction by connecting to VPN. The ANJ could also try to influence media outlets and directories to stop advertising or linking to Polymarket and, thus, limit its audiences even more.

Regulatory Concerns Over Market Manipulation

The high level of activity on Polymarket has led to speculations that the platform may be used for market manipulation. Two blockchain analysis firms, Chaos Labs and Inca Digital, recently revealed that there was potential wash trading within Polymarket’s U.S. presidential betting market where the same assets are bought and sold to simply create a fake market. This type of trading is rather manipulative and can lead to the distortion of signals on the market and mislead other participants.

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission also has concerns about prediction markets and put forward a rule in May aiming at stricter regulation of such markets due to the potential for manipulation.

Although no final decision has been reached, regulatory actions could impact Polymarket’s ability to operate freely in other markets, including the U.S.

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Kelvin Munene Murithi

Kelvin is a distinguished writer with expertise in crypto and finance, holding a Bachelor’s degree in Actuarial Science. Known for his incisive analysis and insightful content, he possesses a strong command of English and excels in conducting thorough research and delivering timely cryptocurrency market updates.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Hits $76K as Crypto Liquidations Soar, Coinbase (COIN) Rockets 30% Higher on Trump Sweep

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“It’s hard to think how the election outcome could have landed better for the industry, and expectations of key regulatory improvements are likely to build in the coming months and quarters,” David Lawant, head of research at crypto prime brokerage FalconX, said in a Wednesday report. “Such clarity could open room for additional crypto ETF products, covering the main crypto assets and potentially also a broader crypto index, and give entrepreneurs and investors more comfort in U.S. token launches.” However, Lawant warned of short-term risks in the meanwhile, which may include “last-minute enforcement actions by departing officials.”



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Trump victory creates over 11k new Bitcoin millionaires

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Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory has created over 11,000 new Bitcoin millionaires.

According to data from Finbold, the number of Bitcoin wallets valued at $1 million or more rose to 132,842 on November 6, as Bitcoin prices increased by 7.8% in just 24 hours.

Last month, there were 121,061 Bitcoin addresses worth over $1 million. This figure has now grown by 11,487 wallets, indicating significant wealth gains among Bitcoin holders, per Finbold.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) has passed its all-time high and is currently trading at $75, 428. 

Can Bitcoin go higher?

This spike follows a strong month for Bitcoin, which has risen 20% over the past 30 days. With Trump’s win and an overwhelming lead in the electoral college, Bitcoin saw renewed interest and broke past previous high prices. 

Analysts suggest that Trump’s pro-crypto stance might lead to a supportive regulatory shift, potentially boosting market conditions. Technical analyst Gert van Lagen predicts Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by early next year. 





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