Wintermute plans to foray into the on-chain prediction market, with its first betting pool focused on the U.S. presidential elections.

The crypto trading firm and market maker Wintermute disclosed ongoing work on an on-chain betting platform, OutcomeMarket. The decentralized protocol will utilize Oracle technology from Chaos Labs to handle pricing and risk management.

According to the announcement, Wintermute’s prediction platform will launch with two tokens: TRUMP and HARRIS, representing the Republican and Democratic U.S. presidential candidates.

OutcomeMarket is said to debut on major blockchain networks like Ethereum (ETH), Coinbase’s Base, and layer-2 chain Arbitrum (ARB). The web3 startup added that tokens will appear across decentralized finance ecosystems and exchanges to better the trading experience.

Tokens via OutcomeMarket will be usable in DeFi and listed on multiple trading venues, expanding utility and improving accessibility for a broader audience

Wintermute on new U.S. election prediction platform

Wintermute eyes Polymarket’s arena, but CFTC oversight looms

Wintermute’s latest venture could look to take market share from Polymarket, one of the largest on-chain outcome betting platforms, with over $1 billion in election-related wagers.

Bloomberg integrated Polymarket’s election data into its terminal, further legitimizing decentralized prediction markets. This collaboration occurred despite regulations preventing U.S. bettors from using Polymarket.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has taken a firm stance against election betting contracts, arguing that big-money wagers may influence outcomes.

CFTC lawyers attempted to delay Kalshi from listing its prediction market, but a judge overruled it. Still, the regulator continues to challenge Kalshi in court.

In a Sept. 17 speech at Georgetown University, CFTC chair Rostin Behnam said the watchdog would also scrutinize offshore betting platforms with U.S. users. Behnam emphasized that the agency’s proposed ban on prediction markets is part of a fight against what it views as illegal activity and market manipulation.

Kalshi, which won a significant victory in court last week when a federal judge ruled its political prediction markets should be allowed to trade in the U.S., said the CFTC wouldn’t suffer any major harm if its new contracts were allowed to trade during the appeal process, but the company would “suffer substantial – indeed, irreparable – harm” if it’s blocked from letting people bet on the outcome of the 2024 elections.

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has secured an administrative stay on the underlying order in its case against Kalshi, leading to the prediction market halting its US election trading less than 24 hours after it went live. This development comes as crypto natives continue to take a keen interest in the US presidential elections, which analysts say could significantly impact Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

CFTC Secures Court Win In Case Against Kalshi

The CFTC secured a court win in its case against Kalshi following the court of appeals’ decision to administratively stay the district court’s order pending when they can sufficiently consider the Commission’s motion for a stay pending appeal. US District Judge Jia Cobb had earlier ruled in favor of Kalshi, declaring that the regulator had acted beyond its powers when it prevented the predictions market from listing election bets.

Following the ruling, the CFTC had asked Judge Cobb to prevent Kalshi from launching its election trading platform until she published her full opinion to help the Commission decide whether to appeal. However, the District judge denied the request, which led the regulator to file an emergency motion at the Court of Appeals for a stay of the order, seeing that Kalshi had launched its election markets.

The Court of Appeal’s decision to grant an administrative stay of Judge Cobb’s order ultimately led to Kalshi halting its trading market less than 24 hours after it went live. The appeal court noted that its ruling was not on the merits of the motion. It further ordered Kalshi to file a response to the emergency motion to help the court decide whether to stay the order until the appeal is done.

In a letter addressed to the court in which Kalshi opposed the emergency motion, the platform had made it clear that it was prepared to swiftly respond if the administrative stay was granted to ensure that the court rules by September 16 or as soon as possible.

The Significance Of These Prediction Markets

The CFTC’s case against Kalshi is notable as prediction markets have become significant in the crypto community ahead of the US elections in November. Crypto natives use the sentiments among bettors to determine the likely winner at the polls between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Crypto has also become a major topic ahead of the elections, with Trump publicly declaring his support for Bitcoin while Harris remains tight-lipped about where she stands.

In line with this, analysts have continued to make Bitcoin price predictions based on who emerges as the next US president. Bernstein analysts predicted that the BTC price would reach $90,000 if Trump wins, while the leading crypto could drop to as low as $30,000 if Harris wins.

The latest Polymarket data shows that Harris has a 50% chance of becoming the next president while Trump has a 49% chance.

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Boluwatife Adeyemi

Boluwatife Adeyemi is a well-experienced crypto news writer and editor who has covered topics that cut across DeFi, NFTs, smart contracts, and blockchain interoperability, among others. Boluwatife has a knack for simplifying the most technical concepts and making it easy for crypto newbies to understand. Away from writing, Boluwatife is an avid basketball lover and a part-time degen.

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