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Bitcoin Toughest Time Over: Why Q4 Could Be A Game-Changer

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An analyst has explained how the worst could be behind for Bitcoin, and Q4 may bring back bullish momentum if history is anything to go by.

Q3 Has Historically Been The Worst Time For Bitcoin Investors

In a new post on X, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards talked about how investors are going through the worst time for Bitcoin. Below is the table cited by the analyst, which breaks down the quarterly returns the cryptocurrency has seen throughout its history.

Bitcoin Quarterly Returns

As is visible, the third quarter of the year has generally been the worst time for Bitcoin throughout history, with average returns for the month standing at +5% and median ones at -4%

For perspective, the second-worst performing quarter tends to be Q2, but its average and median returns of +27% and +7%, respectively, are still significantly better than Q3’s.

On the other side of the spectrum is Q4, the next quarter of the current year. Bitcoin has had its best periods this quarter, with average and median returns at +89% and +57%, respectively.

“If you are still here, congratulations. You made it through the worst time to be in Bitcoin,” says Edwards in the post about BTC traders. “The best lies ahead.”

Last year, the cryptocurrency enjoyed an uplift of almost 57% in this period. With Q3 fast approaching a close, it remains to be seen how the BTC price ends up performing in Q4 this time around.

Speaking of historical patterns, on-chain analyst Checkmate discussed how the daily price performance distribution has looked across bear and bull markets in an X post.

Here is the chart shared by the analyst:

Bitcoin Bull & Bear Distribution

As displayed in the above graph, around 28% of bear market days have seen the asset trend higher than +1%, while about 38% have seen it decline by more than -1%. The remaining 34% of the days have seen the cryptocurrency remain within +1% to -1% of the previous day.

During bullish periods, Bitcoin has spent 33% of the days witnessing a rise of more than +1%, while 26% registering a drop of over -1%. The asset has consolidated for the remaining 41%.

The symmetry between the three types of days is interesting, but what stands out is how the distributions are almost the same between bear and bull markets.

“Day traders are attempting to beat a three-sided coin, with a third of all days rallying, a third selling-off, and a third doing nothing,” notes Checkmate.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has shown a sudden burst of bullish momentum during the last 24 hours as its price has jumped more than 5%, reaching the $60,900 level.

Bitcoin Price Chart



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Bitcoin on the Cusp of Breakout Into Parabolic Phase, Says Crypto Analyst – Here’s the Timeline

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A cryptocurrency analyst and trader is saying Bitcoin (BTC) is on the verge of entering a bullish phase over the coming weeks and months.

The analyst pseudonymously known as Rekt Capital tells his 88,100 YouTube subscribers that Bitcoin is “on the cusp of a breakout into the parabolic phase” after spending the past few months in a re-accumulation phase.

According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin’s parabolic phase lasts a predictable amount of time in every cycle.

“So if we just see that 160 days after the halving is how long this re-accumulation phase lasts and we tend to see a bull market peak 550 days after the halving, then this parabolic phase should last 390 days or so, 400 days or so.

So it is roughly a year of parabolic upside that we see going into the bull market peak. And if that continues, indeed mid-September 2025, mid-October 2025 is when we would see a bull market peak occur for Bitcoin.”

Source: Rekt Capital/X

Bitcoin is trading at $59,958 at time of writing, about 19% below the all-time high of approximately $73,800.

The pseudonymous analyst says that based on historical precedent, Bitcoin could hit a new all-time high over the coming days.

“…but we will reverse towards the upside at some point. And that point is coming quite soon because 160 days after halving is when we see a breakout to new highs.”

The Bitcoin halving occurred around 151 days ago on April 20th.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Hut 8 deepens Bitmain partnership with launch of new ASIC miner in 2025

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Bitcoin miner Hut 8 is expanding its partnership with Bitmain to introduce a new ASIC miner with direct liquid-to-chip cooling, set to deploy in Q2 2025.

Miami-headquartered crypto mining firm Hut 8 has expanded its partnership with Bitmain, announcing the upcoming launch of the U3S21EXPH, a next-generation ASIC miner capable of reaching up to 860 TH/s.

In a Sept. 19 press release, the company the miner, which is scheduled for deployment in Q2 2025, is the first mass-commercialized ASIC model to feature direct liquid-to-chip cooling in a U-form factor.

“We believe this model represents a more thoughtful approach to capturing the lucrative economics offered by next-generation machines, reducing upfront capital requirements while we continue to pursue growth initiatives in AI infrastructure.”

Asher Genoot, Hut8 chief executive officer

Under the hosting agreement, Hut 8 has the option to purchase all or a portion of the hosted miners in up to three tranches at a fixed price within six months of deployment. If Hut 8 exercises the option in full, the company’s self-mining hashrate is expected to increase from 5.6 EH/s to 20.6 EH/s, the press release reads.

The agreement is designed to minimize upfront capital expenditures and provide flexibility for future purchases, allowing Hut 8 to assess market conditions “before committing additional capital,” per the document.

The news comes after Hut 8 secured a $150 million investment in June from Coatue Management to accelerate its artificial intelligence infrastructure development. At the time, Hut 8 said the investment was made as “many traditional data center operators are failing to meet the surging demand for AI compute capacity due to power shortages.”



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Louisiana State Government Now Accepts Bitcoin Lightning As Payment

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Louisiana State Treasurer, John Fleming, M.D. has announced that the state government will now accept Bitcoin, Bitcoin Lightning Network, and USD Coin, as a valid form of payment for state services. The first cryptocurrency payment was made to the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries today.

Dr. Fleming, described this initiative as a crucial step in modernizing government operations, stating, “In today’s digital age, government systems must evolve and embrace new technologies. By introducing cryptocurrency as a payment option, we’re not just innovating; we’re providing our citizens with flexibility and freedom in interacting with state services.”

The Bitcoin payments will be converted into U.S. dollars by Bead Pay, a provider specializing in cryptocurrency conversion for government transactions. “The State of Louisiana will not handle cryptocurrency,” clarified the announcement. This system aims to ensure that the state is protected from the volatility commonly associated with digital currencies. The conversion process mirrors that of credit or debit card payments, minimizing risks while offering secure, efficient transactions.

Louisiana’s shift to accepting Bitcoin is a part of a broader effort to integrate new technologies into public services. “I have been proud to author several bills related to digital assets and to Chair the State Treasurer’s task force in 2022,” said Louisiana State Representative Mark Wright. “I’m excited to see Louisiana further expanding its payment options under Treasurer Fleming. I look forward to working with him and others so that Louisiana will continue to be a leader in accepting digital payments.”

Louisiana expects the new payment options to reduce fraud and enhance overall transaction security. Residents can now use their private Bitcoin wallets to pay for services, while the state continues to receive payments in U.S. dollars.

The Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries was the first state agency to adopt the new payment system, with more departments expected to follow. “Offering our sportsmen more ways to interact with our department allows for us to enhance our customer service,” stated Secretary Madison Sheahan of the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries. “This is another step towards our goal of creating a modern and professional organization that better serves the sportsmen of the state.”





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