An analyst from one of the biggest asset managers in crypto says any result of the November election will end up being bullish for Bitcoin (BTC).

In a new report for VanEck, Matthew Sigel, the firm’s head of digital asset research, says that the US federal election will likely have a significant impact on the crypto space, but will be bullish for Bitcoin regardless of which party wins.

Sigel says that both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are bullish for Bitcoin, with only nuanced implications for digital assets.

Sigel adds both candidates will likely maintain fiscal spending – or increase it – which could lead to further quantitative easing (QE), which has historically been bullish for the asset class.

Should Kamala Harris win the November election, Sigel sees Bitcoin outperforming the broader crypto market.

“Suppose Kamala Harris were to retain Gary Gensler as SEC Chair or align closely with the Elizabeth Warren wing of the Democratic Party when it comes to finance policy, which looks increasingly likely. In that case, the digital assets industry generally is expected to confront a tightening regulatory environment that would dampen institutional adoption of digital assets in the U.S., further restricting domestic entrepreneurial activity.

On Bitcoin alone, however, we would argue that a Kamala Harris presidency might be even better for Bitcoin than a second term for Trump because it would, in our view, accelerate many of the structural issues that drive Bitcoin adoption in the first place…

Should that happen, Bitcoin’s unique regulatory clarity will likely make it even more competitive than other digital assets.”

Conversely, Sigel says the firm believes that another four years of Donald Trump is “generally bullish for the entire crypto ecosystem” as the administration is likely to be more business-friendly, particularly to crypto, perhaps.

“Regardless of the election outcome, the trend of growing fiscal deficits and rising national debt will likely continue. This suggests a weakening of the U.S. dollar, a macroeconomic environment in which Bitcoin has historically thrived.”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $63,769, up 1.12% in the past day.

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As October approaches, investors are looking ahead to what the month will bring this time around for Bitcoin and the entire crypto industry. Historically, October (often referred to as “Uptober”) has been a month of significant upward momentum for Bitcoin since the crypto’s creation.

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With the previous year’s October seeing impressive gains and kickstarting a strong bull run, many investors are keenly analyzing market trends to predict where Bitcoin might be headed this time around.

Historical Context Of Uptober And What It Means For Bitcoin

Bitcoin might have a smaller history when compared to traditional asset classes, but it has had a strong history of notable patterns and repetitions. One of these is the concept of a bullish October among other months of the year.

Over the past several years, October has consistently delivered positive returns for BTC. This pattern has fostered a strong belief among investors that the coming October may hold favorable conditions for price growth, especially as market sentiment shifts towards optimism after the recent Fed interest rate cut.

According to data from CoinGlass, Bitcoin has had green monthly closes in October for the past five years. Furthermore, out of the eleven years since Bitcoin’s inception, it has recorded positive monthly closes in October on nine occasions. As expected, this consistent performance has solidified October’s reputation as a month of promise for the crypto.

For instance, Bitcoin surged by 28.52% in October 2023. This significant uptick not only marked a successful month but also paved the way for a sustained multi-month rally that ultimately saw Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of $73,780 in March 2024. Looking ahead to October 2024, if Bitcoin were to replicate a similar 28% increase, we could witness it surpassing its previous all-time high, potentially peaking above $81,000. 

Current Market Sentiment

Bitcoin is currently navigating a wave of bullish sentiment, although its price growth is hampered by resistance around $63,000. To reach this price point, Bitcoin increased by about 21% last week from a low of $52,827 on September 6. 

With a week remaining in September, Bitcoin’s stabilization around $63,000 indicates a possible support base for an upcoming rally. Bitcoin is also largely in a phase of accumulation, which may see smart large investors loading up throughout next week before the foreseen rally in October.

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With the clock ticking down to October, all eyes are on Bitcoin. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $63,010. This price point could soon become a thing of the past with the projections of a bull run in October. However, caution is advised, as the price performance in the last week of September could make or break a bullish sentiment leading into October.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView