A widely followed crypto analyst says that the Ethereum versus Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) pair is on the cusp of printing a cycle bottom.

In a new video update, crypto trader Benjamin Cowen tells his 813,000 YouTube subscribers that all altcoins will eventually bottom out against the crypto king and it appears as if ETH is poised to stop bleeding against BTC.

But Cowen says Bitcoin’s dominance level – or the ratio of BTC’s market cap compared to the market cap of all other crypto assets – is still on the rise, suggesting that ETH/BTC can still witness a leg down.

“I still think that Bitcoin dominance is in an uptrend… I think it will go probably to approximately 60%, so I don’t think Bitcoin dominance has topped, which is why ETH/BTC could go a little bit lower.”

BTC’s dominance level is currently sitting at 57.64%, according to TradingView.

However, Cowen says it is within the realm of possibility for Ethereum to bottom out against Bitcoin before the rest of the altcoin market prints cycle lows.

“There does exist a scenario where ETH/BTC bottoms before the collective altcoin market bottoms against Bitcoin…

They don’t all have to happen at the same time and I think that’s what a lot of people might forget is that some assets will bottom out against Bitcoin well before other assets bottom out against Bitcoin and all I know right now is that it looks like ETH/BTC is in its final stages of capitulation.

I don’t know how low it’s going to go but I do believe this represents final capitulation for ETH/BTC and I do think it’s going to bottom out relatively soon.”

Cowen goes on to say that the worst-case scenario for this outcome would be a bounce to the upside followed by a lower low in December.

ETH/BTC is currently trading at 0.04125 BTC ($2,597).

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The decentralized oracle network Chainlink (LINK) continues to outpace all other ERC-20 projects in terms of development activity, according to the crypto analytics firm Santiment.

Santiment notes on the social media platform X that Chainlink registered 624.17 notable GitHub events in the past 30 days, more than double the number of the second-ranked project, Ethereum (ETH), which clocked 298.8.

The oracle project also topped the list in June and August.

The decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol Synthetix (SNX) came in third with 289.93 notable GitHub events.

An ERC-20 project is a standard that developers use to issue tokens on the Ethereum blockchain and virtual machine.

Santiment notes that it doesn’t count routine updates and utilizes a “better methodology” to collect data for GitHub events based on a “backtested process.”

The analytics firm has previously said that heavy development activity centered around a crypto project indicates developers believe in the protocol. Development activity also suggests that the project is less likely to be an exit scam.

LINK is trading at $11.39 at time of writing. The 18th-ranked crypto asset by market cap is up 1.6% in the past 24 hours.

ETH is trading at $2,575 at time of writing and is up nearly 4% in the past day.

Synthetix’s native asset, SNX, is trading at $1.58 at time of writing. The 130th-ranked crypto asset by market cap is up more than 6% in the last 24 hours.

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The Ethereum price bounced from $2220 to $2550 in the last two weeks, registering a 15.3% growth. The bullish narrative largely followed the market speculation for the U.S Fed interest rate, replenishing investors’ interest in risky assets like cryptocurrency. But will the macroeconomic factor be enough to push ETH value past $4000?

Key Factors Holding Back Ethereum Price Surge to $4,000

This week, the cryptocurrency market accelerated the bullish momentum following the 0.5% rate cut by the U.S. Fed. The recuperated interest in risky assets has pushed the BTC and ETH prices along with major altcoins for trend reversal. However, the Ethereum price could struggle to drive a sustainable rally to $4000 due to the following reasons:

• ETH/BTC Pair Hits 40-Month Low as Bitcoin ETF Flows Outperform
• Ethereum Foundation’s Ongoing ETH Sales Fuel Bearish Sentiment
• Rising ETH Supply on Exchanges Fuels Fears of Potential Sell-Off

ETH/BTC Pair Hits 40-Month Low as Bitcoin ETF Flows Outperform

According to IntoTheBlock analytics, the ETH/BTC pair recently dropped to a 40-month low, highlighting Ethereum’s underperformance compared to Bitcoin. While BTC ETF flows have mainly remained positive, ETH ETFs have seen significant outflows. This suggests that institutional investors favor Bitcoin’s relative stability over Ethereum’s higher volatility and risk-reward profile.

If the trend continues, the Ether coin could struggle to drive a high-momentum rally and experience prolonged consolidation.

ETH is trading at its lowest level against BTC in over 40 months

While ETF flows for $BTC have been largely positive, $ETH has experienced mostly outflows. This trend suggests institutional investors are favoring Bitcoin’s relative stability over ETH’s higher risk, high-reward… pic.twitter.com/Eie6CBZ3c4

— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) September 20, 2024

Ethereum Foundation’s Ongoing ETH Sales Fuel Bearish Sentiment

A notable factor contributing to ETH price volatility is the ongoing selling sphere from the Ethereum Foundation wallet. The Ethereum Foundation sold 300 ETH on Friday, approximately $763K, as per the Lookonchain data. Since January 1st, the Foundation has sold a total of 3,466 ETH( worth $9.67 Million) at an average price of $2,791. 

On average, the Foundation executes a sale every 11 days, with an average sale size of 151 ETH ($421K). Typically, such large sales may signal a cautious outlook on future price movements, but the wallet associated with the Ethereum foundation adds fuel to the bearish sentiment.

The #Ethereum Foundation sold 300 $ETH($763K) again 4 hours ago!

Since Jan1, 2024, the #Ethereum Foundation has sold a total of 3,466 $ETH($9.67M) at an average price of $2,791, averaging one sale every 11 days, and averaging 151 $ETH($421K) for each sale.

Address:… pic.twitter.com/aAhaNNrT97

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) September 20, 2024

Rising ETH Supply on Exchanges Fuels Fears of Potential Sell-Off

According to the Santiment analytics, the ETH supply on exchange has been steadily growing, reaching 21.46 million coins. A significant inflow into exchanges heightens the risk of potential selling, which can limit the asset’s growth potential. 

Thus, the Ethereum price prediction could delay the $4000 rally if the current recovery witnessed profit booking from short-term holders.

ETH Price 10% Away from Major Reversal or Breakout

By press time, the ETH price trades at $2,555 while boosting a market cap of $307.6 billion. If the broader market recovery persists, the coin price could surge another 10% before challenging the $2,800 barrier. This resistance and the 200-day exponential moving average created a suitable area for sellers to recuperate their bearish momentum.

If the overhead resistance stands firm, the Ethereum price will revert lower and re-challenge the $2,000 support.

On the contrary, a bullish breakout from the $2800 line would strengthen the buyer’s grip over this asset and drive a $3,000 breakout.

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Sahil Mahadik

Sahil is a dedicated full-time trader with over three years of experience in the financial markets. Armed with a strong grasp of technical analysis, he keeps a vigilant eye on the daily price movements of top assets and indices. Drawn by his fascination with financial instruments, Sahil enthusiastically embraced the emerging realm of cryptocurrency, where he continues to explore opportunities driven by his passion for trading

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.