Since March, Cardano (ADA) has experienced recurring periods of significant price declines. However, crypto pundit Dan Gambardello, a popular analyst on the Crypto Capital Venture’s YouTube channel, predicts a potential bullish reversal based on an analysis of the weekly and daily charts.

Key Technical Indicators Support Bullish Outlook

According to the analyst in a recent video, ADA is poised for a significant breakout, potentially reaching around $31, representing a remarkable 8,500% increase from current levels. The analyst highlighted that the market has experienced “180 days of downside” since March, creating favorable conditions for this anticipated surge. 

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He further suggested that ADA could break its current cycle of lower highs and lower lows, citing key technical indicators, particularly the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) on the weekly chart, which is showing signs of a bullish crossover. “The macro momentum of Cardano is signaling its readiness to bottom,” he said, emphasizing the upward momentum of the MACD histogram since May.

However, he cautioned that ADA has yet to decisively move above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. He warned that while testing key levels, the move could fail, advising patience until more price action confirms a true breakout. While some analysts view Dan Gamberdello projections as overly optimistic, crypto analyst Sssebi has offered a more conservative forecast.

He forecasts a rally of 20x to 30x for Cardano over the next year. Sssebi noted that Cardano current position mirrors its state during the last cycle, indicating a major rally may be imminent. He predicts that Cardano could hit a minimum price of $5 by 2025, with a possible peak of $10 during the height of the bull market.

Cautious Outlook For Cardano

However, not all analysts are as bullish. Trader “Lingrid” has adopted a more cautious perspective regarding Cardano (ADA), predicting a short-term pullback for the cryptocurrency. In a recent post, he noted that “ADAUSDT appears bearish on the daily timeframe,” forecasting a potential decline to $0.325 and suggesting that ADA may remain within the consolidation zone between $0.30 and $0.34 for an extended period.

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This negative outlook is further reinforced by the bearish on-chain metric. According to Coinglass, ADA’s Long/Short ratio currently stands at 0.926, indicating a prevailing bearish sentiment among traders.

Furthermore, its future open interest has declined by 3.8% in the last 24 hours and has been steadily falling. This suggests that traders are either liquidating their positions or hesitant to establish new ones.

At press time, ADA was trading near the $0.352 level and had experienced a modest price decline of 0.8% in the last 24 hours. During the same period, its trading volume had dropped by 18%, indicating lower participation from traders amid selling pressure.

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

The overall bearish sentiment for Cardano (ADA) continues to rise as analysts now foresee a massive 33% price crash for the altcoin. This pessimistic projection comes as ADA struggles to gain traction in the market, with its value remaining stagnant or steadily dropping to lower levels. 

Cardano (ADA) Crash Incoming

Compared to other prominent altcoins in the crypto market, Cardano has performed poorly, struggling with price declines and sluggish growth. Consequently, a crypto analyst, identified as ‘Financialfreedomgoals’ on TradingView, predicted that cryptocurrency is likely to experience more than a 30% crash to new lows. 

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The analyst notes the broader negative state of the current crypto market, highlighting that most altcoins are stuck in a “bearish rut.” He disclosed that rather than achieving new all-time highs, these coins have been setting fresh lows, underscoring the persistent downtrend and decreased confidence amongst investors. 

Cardano, in particular, has had its share of negative sentiment and volatility. The cryptocurrency has stayed unwaveringly below the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 200 line, a key technical indicator traders often use to gauge long-term trends. Typically, when the price of a cryptocurrency stays below this line, it tends to signal a continuation of a bearish trend. 

Given the present bearish state of the market, the crypto analyst has dismissed the idea of an upcoming altcoin season, where the majority of cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin experience significant price gains. 

On the daily time frame, Cardano is trading below the EMA 200 line and the bearish trend line. Initially, a rising wedge pattern had formed on the cryptocurrency’s price chart, however instead of breaking out, Cardano saw a series of negative candlesticks alongside a bearish crossover on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). 

This series of negative indicators suggests that bears may be tightening their grip on Cardano’s price. As such, the crypto analyst foresees the ADA continuing its descent to reach fresh lows at target areas: 0.2506 or 0.2197. These targets are calculated using the Fibonacci retracement ratios of 1.272 and 1.618. 

0.3815 Resistance Could Trigger Bullish Surge

Despite maintaining a largely bearish stance on Cardano’s price outlook, Financialfreedomgoals has hinted at a potential bullish turnaround. He has suggested that a price reversal for ADA could be possible if the price of the cryptocurrency manages to break above the key resistance at 0.3815 Fibonacci level. 

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Crypto analyst Sssebi shares an even greater bullish outlook for Cardano. He highlights that during the previous bull market, ADA’s value increased by more than 100X. As a result, the analyst believes that ADA will rally by at least 20X in this current market cycle, expressing even stronger confidence that the cryptocurrency will reach $5 soon. 

As of writing, the price of ADA is trading at $0.3576, reflecting a significant increase of 11.39% over the past week, according to CoinMarketCap. 

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Just six hours before the Chang upgrade, the Cardano price broke below a critical support level, igniting fear and uncertainty among investors. The Chang hard fork is the main event on the Cardano network, but the hype isn’t helping the price. Meanwhile, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson plans to launch a decentralized social media platform in Brazil following the X ban. Will ADA have a role to play in this new network? 

Chang Projects ‘Sell-The-News’ Vibes on Cardano Price

Cardano’s price has dropped by 3.4% in the last 24 hours, currently trading at $0.3358. Despite Charles Hoskinson’s efforts to drive the Chang hard fork, including burning the last of the Cardano Genesis keys, the price remains unmoved.

Cardano critics will lose one of their main arguments with the Genesis keys losing functionality. They now have to acknowledge that #Cardano is decentralized in block production and project management. #Cardano is setting the standard for the entire industry once again.

— Cardano YOD₳ (@JaromirTesar) August 30, 2024

As Cardano loses some functionality and the Chang hard fork approaches in just a few hours, it is set to become the largest fully decentralized blockchain by market cap. However, on-chain metrics suggest a different market sentiment. 

Data from Santiment indicates that the Cardano price-to-Daily Active Addresses (DAA) divergence plummeted to a two-month low on September 1, signaling a decrease in network activity. 

This drop, coupled with a steady decline in social dominance, points to waning interest in the project despite the positive news surrounding the upgrade. 

Additionally, the daily on-chain transaction volume in loss ($2.49 billion) surpassed profit ($1.98 billion) while the ADA price dropped. This signals that more investors could be selling their assets at a loss, which often happens when market sentiment turns negative and investors want to cut their losses.

However, for Cardano, it may just be a case of ‘sell-the-news’ as the Chang hard fork goes live less than six hours from now. Many investors who may have bought at higher prices anticipating a pump might now be exiting their positions.

ADA Price Could Rebound Soon

The network realized profit/loss increased in the last five days as Cardano price dropped. The increase in realized profits suggests that most ADA investors are still in profit despite the price drop. However, as observed in the daily profit ratio, the price drop could be from some investors in loss selling their assets to cut losses as the price declines.

Additionally, the Cardano social dominance has declined over the past three days. However, positive sentiment still outweighs negative, suggesting that while there may be less attention or discussion on social media, the occurring conversations are generally favorable. Despite the drop in social dominance, this sustained positive sentiment indicates a potential for a price rebound.

Cardano price is in a difficult position. With hype waning, the asset eyes at least a 4.8% drop from the current price and potentially an 8.2% further drop if market conditions prevail. In the future, more ADA utility or the general market bull run may spur price growth.

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Evans Karanja

Evans Karanja is a content writer and scriptwriter with a focus on crypto, blockchain, and video gaming. He has worked with various startups in the past, helping them create engaging and high-quality content that captures the essence of their brand. Evans is also an avid crypto trader and investor, and he believes that blockchain will revolutionize many industries in the years to come. When he is not writing, you can find him playing video games or chasing waterfalls.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.