Bitcoin started the month of October on a negative note, deviating from what many investors had expected leading up to the month. Bitcoin, which had been on a notable price increase earlier, started to face setbacks as September ended, leading up to the first 24 hours of October.

The first 24 hours of October have been riddled with outflows from the crypto industry. Bitcoin, in particular, fell below $61,000, according to Coinmarketcap, as tensions started to rise in the Middle East. Going by this decline, it has raised questions as to the outlook for Bitcoin in the rest of the month. 

Current Bitcoin Price Action

The buzz leading into October centered around expectations that Bitcoin would extend its bullish momentum and break through key resistance levels. According to price data, Bitcoin ended the month of September 7.11% above where it started, even peaking above $66,000 at one point.

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However, at the time of writing, Bitcoin has fallen by almost 7% from the September peak. Furthermore, Coinmarketcap data shows that Bitcoin has been down by 3.6% in the past 24 hours. The swift downturn has altered the market’s sentiment, with the once-bullish outlook giving way to fear and uncertainty. The Fear and Greed Index, which gauges the market’s emotions and risk appetite, now reads 39 and signals “Fear.” It would seem crypto investors are now panicking, with crypto analyst Kaleo even calling this to attention on social media platform X.

After spending five minutes scrolling through the timeline you’d think we’re never going to see a green candle again

— K A L E O (@CryptoKaleo) October 1, 2024

Bitcoin’s price action is highly sensitive to events in the world. Notably, the recent decline in the price of Bitcoin can be attributed to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. Its recent performance in the face of geopolitical turmoil casts doubts on its role as a safe haven asset. 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which are meant to prop up the Bitcoin spot price, also ended eight consecutive days of inflows with massive outflows on October 1, most likely in reaction to the Middle East tensions. According to Spot Bitcoin ETF flow data from Farside Investors, institutional investors pulled out $246.2 million yesterday.

Is Uptober A Myth?

The optimistic outlook seems to have faded quickly among many crypto investors. However, many participants are still holding on to the bullish outlook, especially considering the month still has a long way to go before its conclusion. 

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History shows, more often than not, that October has always been a positive month for Bitcoin. Most importantly, the positive performance was mostly in the second half of the month. Considering the month is only at its beginning, it is more logical to wait and examine how the price action plays out for the rest of the week before drawing any conclusion on Uptober. 

In the face of these tensions, Bitcoin’s potential role as a safe haven asset similar to gold could rise among market participants in the rest of the month and beyond.

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

The Bitcoin mid-September rally has slowed down leading up to the end of the month. Although it ended September at a green monthly candle close, the cryptocurrency has fallen below the psychological $65,000 price mark again, with the fear and greed index returning from greed to neutral sentiment. This seems to have caused some second-guessing among Bitcoin investors. However, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju is not entertaining any such thought.

According to Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin is still in the middle of a bull cycle. This is positive news for Bitcoin investors, as the crypto industry is now transitioning into a historically bullish fourth quarter of the year. 

Bitcoin Bull Market Not Over

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju is part of fervent Bitcoin investors who remain unfazed by the recent price fluctuations. However, his stance isn’t just based on speculations but is backed by technical price data and analysis. Ki Young Ju draws his bullish outlook on the Bitcoin growth rate difference, which presents an interesting outlook on the cryptocurrency. Essentially, the Bitcoin growth rate difference compares the market cap of Bitcoin to its realized cap in order to gauge its bullish or bearish strength.

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The market cap of a cryptocurrency is the total value of all coins in circulation, calculated by multiplying the current price by the total supply. In contrast, the realized cap takes into account the actual value paid for each BTC in circulation based on the price at which each coin last moved. A higher market cap growth rate suggests the spot price of the average coin has increased compared to the last it was moved.

According to a Bitcoin technical chart he shared on social media platform X, Ki Young Ju noted that Bitcoin’s market cap is still growing faster than its realized cap, which continues to point to a bull cycle. Notably, the analyst has mentioned in an earlier analysis of the growth rate difference that this trend, which started in late 2023, typically lasts for an average of two years. 

What Does This Mean For BTC?

Going by past bull cycle trends, which Ki Young Ju noted typically lasts for about two years, Bitcoin is expected to continue in a bull cycle for at least more than a year going forward. Furthermore, current fundamentals point to steady growth for Bitcoin as inflows continue to pour in from institutional investors.

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Speaking of institutional investors, Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which ended last week with the largest inflow ($494.27 million) since July 22, have begun the new week on a positive note. Particularly, they registered $61.3 million in net inflows yesterday, which is a sign of good things to come. Institutional involvement, especially through vehicles like Spot Bitcoin ETFs, is a crucial factor in BTC’s sustained price growth.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $64,080.

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Edyme’s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis.

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PS—Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He’s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.