Bitcoin
Prediction Markets Are Pricing In A Trump Victory. This Is Good For Bitcoin
Published
5 hours agoon
By
adminEarlier today, Vivek discussed why he thinks crypto native Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, is biased towards Trump in this upcoming U.S. presidential election. While it is plausible given the arguments he laid out, I still believe that it may not be as biased as he may think.
First and foremost, prediction market traders are betting on these odds to make money, not swear loyalty to their preferred politician. Traders are looking to make a profit and are trying to lock in their bets at attractive odds on who they think will win. Based on many factors, like positive incoming GOP voter registration data in swing states like Pennsylvania, there are signs that show Trump has a very solid chance of winning this election. Even billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller said that the recent positive upswing in markets is due to the markets pricing in a Trump victory.
Like Vivek, many claim that since Polymarket is crypto native, then of course its users support Trump because he is also pro-Bitcoin and crypto. So let’s take a look at another, non-crypto native, market predictions platform, Kalshi.
On Kalshi, a U.S. betting odds platform that settles contracts in dollars, not Bitcoin or crypto, Trump is also in a massive lead. Trump is currently up by 20% over Harris. The crowd of users on this platform appear to be choosing their bets on who they think will win the election, even putting aside their own personal political preferences. Reading the comments, I’m seeing many people say they want Trump to win, but are taking the other side of this bet as they believe there may be election fraud from the Democrats which would see Harris ‘win’.
“Y’all betting on Trump haven’t priced in the probability of delivery vans pulling into the polling stations at 3am with 10’s of thousands of ballots, 99% of which going to Kamala they suddenly ‘found,’” commented one user. “Kamala will win legitimately or not, you have been warned.”
It will be fascinating to watch how these prediction markets play out as we inch closer to the election, which is now only two weeks away. I agree with Vivek that as we get closer to the election, these margins will likely get narrower. It appears to me that Trump has got this one in the bag, but it ain’t over until it’s over. Last election most people went to sleep thinking Trump had won the election, just for the Democrats to find all these ballots voting for Biden at 3am to win him the election. If there is any election fraud and interference in this upcoming election, these prediction markets may be in for a very volatile time.
A Trump win would be massive for Bitcoin on a regulatory level and price wise, due to his proposed policies. Under Harris, on the other hand, the future of Bitcoin in this country would be uncertain, as she has not laid out any real details on policy she would implement while as president and has a four year track record of attacking the industry while in office as vice president.
Bitcoin Magazine is teaming up with Stand With Crypto to provide real time election coverage on November 5th. So if you’re a Bitcoiner tired of watching mainstream news and want to witness this election from the perspective of a Bitcoiner, make sure to tune into the stream. More details on the livestream and where to watch here.
This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
Source link
You may like
Bitcoin
Prediction Markets Are Pricing In A Trump Victory. This Is Good For Bitcoin
Published
1 hour agoon
October 23, 2024By
adminEarlier today, Vivek discussed why he thinks crypto native Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, is biased towards Trump in this upcoming U.S. presidential election. While it is plausible given the arguments he laid out, I still believe that it may not be as biased as he may think.
First and foremost, prediction market traders are betting on these odds to make money, not swear loyalty to their preferred politician. Traders are looking to make a profit and are trying to lock in their bets at attractive odds on who they think will win. Based on many factors, like positive incoming GOP voter registration data in swing states like Pennsylvania, there are signs that show Trump has a very solid chance of winning this election. Even billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller said that the recent positive upswing in markets is due to the markets pricing in a Trump victory.
Like Vivek, many claim that since Polymarket is crypto native, then of course its users support Trump because he is also pro-Bitcoin and crypto. So let’s take a look at another, non-crypto native, market predictions platform, Kalshi.
On Kalshi, a U.S. betting odds platform that settles contracts in dollars, not Bitcoin or crypto, Trump is also in a massive lead. Trump is currently up by 20% over Harris. The crowd of users on this platform appear to be choosing their bets on who they think will win the election, even putting aside their own personal political preferences. Reading the comments, I’m seeing many people say they want Trump to win, but are taking the other side of this bet as they believe there may be election fraud from the Democrats which would see Harris ‘win’.
“Y’all betting on Trump haven’t priced in the probability of delivery vans pulling into the polling stations at 3am with 10’s of thousands of ballots, 99% of which going to Kamala they suddenly ‘found,’” commented one user. “Kamala will win legitimately or not, you have been warned.”
It will be fascinating to watch how these prediction markets play out as we inch closer to the election, which is now only two weeks away. I agree with Vivek that as we get closer to the election, these margins will likely get narrower. It appears to me that Trump has got this one in the bag, but it ain’t over until it’s over. Last election most people went to sleep thinking Trump had won the election, just for the Democrats to find all these ballots voting for Biden at 3am to win him the election. If there is any election fraud and interference in this upcoming election, these prediction markets may be in for a very volatile time.
A Trump win would be massive for Bitcoin on a regulatory level and price wise, due to his proposed policies. Under Harris, on the other hand, the future of Bitcoin in this country would be uncertain, as she has not laid out any real details on policy she would implement while as president and has a four year track record of attacking the industry while in office as vice president.
Bitcoin Magazine is teaming up with Stand With Crypto to provide real time election coverage on November 5th. So if you’re a Bitcoiner tired of watching mainstream news and want to witness this election from the perspective of a Bitcoiner, make sure to tune into the stream. More details on the livestream and where to watch here.
This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
Source link
Bitcoin
Bitcoin Exchange River Financial Allowing Users to Earn BTC Interest on Cash Deposits
Published
10 hours agoon
October 22, 2024By
adminNot a bank itself, River has teamed up with Lead Bank, a member of the FDIC, meaning users’ deposits are protected up to the value of $250,000.
Source link
Best Altcoins 2025
Top Crypto Analyst Unveils Plan To ‘Make Millions’ By March 2025
Published
14 hours agoon
October 22, 2024By
adminCrypto analyst Miles Deutscher, boasting 550,000 followers on X, has released a new video titled “My Plan To Make Millions In Crypto By March 2025! [Fool Proof Strategy].” In this analysis, Deutscher outlines his strategic approach to navigating the current crypto bull run.
The Start Of The Bitcoin Bull Run
First, Deutscher highlights the bullish outlook for Bitcoin, particularly on the monthly chart. “We have been consolidating above the high that we made in 2021 in February for a matter of eight months now,” he notes. “On the higher time frames, Bitcoin looks really, really good. It honestly looks primed for expansion for another leg potentially to take us to that $100,000 zone.”
He attributes this bullish consolidation to significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, signaling increased interest from traditional finance investors. “Over $2 billion worth of inflows into the Bitcoin ETFs last week,” Deutscher reports. “We also saw, to end the week, another additional $273 million flowing into the Bitcoin ETF. The landscape is very strong here for Bitcoin from a TradFi perspective.”
Despite this momentum, Bitcoin is lagging behind gold, which has surged 30% above its yearly high to $2,700 per ounce. “Bitcoin is still sitting 10% below its yearly high,” Deutscher points out. “If Bitcoin were to catch up to the current price performance of gold this year, that would indicate a Bitcoin price of $96,400, which would be absolutely insane.”
Related Reading
Deutscher also discusses the potential impact of macroeconomic factors and political events on Bitcoin’s trajectory. He observes a correlation between Bitcoin’s price performance and the election odds of former President Donald Trump. “It is quite interesting that Bitcoin is behaving very similarly to the Trump election odds based on Polymarket,” he remarks. While he acknowledges this could be coincidental, he suggests that “the market is anticipating a Trump win to be bullish for Bitcoin.”
He also references the transition from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing and its potential effect on the crypto market. Citing a tweet, he poses the question: “What do you think happens when you leave a seven, actually eight-month trading range off a low historical volatility into an election with a transition from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing and at the end phase of an 18.6-year real estate cycle?” His answer: “Explosion.”
Strategy How To “Make Millions”
Turning his focus to altcoins, Deutscher provides a strategy for capitalizing on emerging market trends to potentially “make millions by March 2025.” He emphasizes the importance of strategic accumulation during market dips and highlights the significance of current uptrends. “Alts are now uptrending. We have started to break above the range. Bitcoin is uptrending. We are starting to break above key levels and make higher highs,” he explains.
Deutscher advises against attempting to time market rotations between Bitcoin and altcoins. “You can play the game of timing the Bitcoin dominance rotation,” he acknowledges, but cautions that it requires precise timing. Instead, he recommends positioning for the “end game” by holding altcoins that are poised to outperform Bitcoin in the latter stages of its move. “Although that means I’m going to have to hold throughout periods of altcoin underperformance […] by the end of the cycle, I’m going to make more money playing that game,” he asserts.
He stresses the importance of focusing on strong narratives and being selective with investments. Quoting Warren Buffett, he notes, “Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It makes very little sense for those who know what they’re doing.” Deutscher elaborates: “I think you should be selective. You don’t want to be over-diversified to the point where you hold six AI coins, six RWA coins, eight meme coins, five Layer-1s, three Layer-2s. This is a market where you’re better off to have maybe two plays from each narrative and just go higher conviction into those coins.”
Key Narratives and Top Altcoin Picks
Deutscher identifies several hot crypto narratives and specific altcoins that he believes have the potential to yield significant profits. In the memecoin sector, Deutscher highlights the emergence of AI-driven meme coins, where AI agents create and promote tokens. His leading play in this space is GOAT. “This narrative either goes to billions and really takes off and GOAT could be a one-billion-plus coin, or it goes to zero,” he admits, acknowledging the high risk involved.
Besides AI memecoins, Deutscher recommends looking at the memecoin list by Murad Mahmudov. “I do think SPX6900 is a decent play. I also like GIGA, but probably not as much as SPX. I also like MOG. I like pretty much all of these but I think, you just gotta pick two or three that you resonate with the most.”
Related Reading
Beyond meme coins, Deutscher is heavily investing in AI projects. He has taken positions in tokens like Bittensor and Near Protocol. “I’m meeting two to three AI founders a day. I’m really digging deep into AI research because it’s one of the verticals that I’m most interested in right now,” he shares.
Deutscher also revealed his investments in projects that tokenize real-world assets, such as Mantra (OM), Ondo Finance (ONDO), and Pendle. While he has started taking profits from these investments due to significant gains, he is reallocating into projects like Clearpool (CPOOL), which he believes can “push up into that top-five echelon of RWA protocols.” He hints at another RWA project he’s bullish on but hasn’t publicly disclosed yet.
Deutscher emphasizes the importance of accumulating crypto positions during market dips, especially in sectors poised for growth. He notes that the current market phase rewards dip buyers. “We’re in this new paradigm where we are getting higher lows. The market is actually rewarding those that buy these dips and take advantage of the dips,” he observes.
He underscores the need for adaptability and disciplined risk management to maximize profits and potentially make millions. “You need to be evolving in the market in order to be profitable, and you need to be condensing positions that maybe aren’t so great or sexy or attractive for this next run into positions that are attractive,” he advises.
Deutscher also cautions against fixating on arbitrary price targets or portfolio milestones. “Price targets are stupid,” he asserts. “The number one way that people wreck themselves last cycle was attaching themselves to arbitrary numbers like, ‘Oh, when I hit a million dollars, then I’ll cash out,’ or ‘Oh, when Bitcoin hits 100K, then I’ll cash out.’”
Instead, he recommends implementing an incremental profit-taking system. “For each coin that you buy, have a plan to shift out set percentages at certain multiples,” he suggests. “This approach allows investors to secure gains progressively and adjust to market conditions without the need to predict exact peaks.”
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $67,347.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Source link
Prediction Markets Are Pricing In A Trump Victory. This Is Good For Bitcoin
Will Congress Take Control or Let Crypto Run Wild?
Analyst Predicts 75% Upside Burst for Ethereum, Sees Solana Repeating Massive 2021 Surge
If Bitcoin Price Repeats Gold’s Bullish Pattern, BTC Could Hit $230K
Prediction Markets Are Pricing In A Trump Victory. This Is Good For Bitcoin
Tether pushing dollar supremacy in emerging markets: Ardoino
GameStop Meme Stock Craze Prompted Market ‘Plumbing’ Changes, Says SEC Chair Gensler
How to Turn $50 into $500K by the End of October?
The Metric That Matters for the Lightning Network
Bitcoin Exchange River Financial Allowing Users to Earn BTC Interest on Cash Deposits
ADA, XRP to break $1 before 2025 but experts tip this altcoin to beat them
Is It Time To Buy the Dip Now?
MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor Reveals His Bitcoin MSTR Plan
Top Crypto Analyst Unveils Plan To ‘Make Millions’ By March 2025
Three cryptos that could turn $100 investment into $1,000 in 2024
182267361726451435
Top Crypto News Headlines of The Week
Why Did Trump Change His Mind on Bitcoin?
Ethereum, Solana touch key levels as Bitcoin spikes
Bitcoin Open-Source Development Takes The Stage In Nashville
Bitcoin 20% Surge In 3 Weeks Teases Record-Breaking Potential
Ethereum Crash A Buying Opportunity? This Whale Thinks So
New U.S. president must bring clarity to crypto regulation, analyst says
Will XRP Price Defend $0.5 Support If SEC Decides to Appeal?
Shiba Inu Price Slips 4% as 3500% Burn Rate Surge Fails to Halt Correction
‘Hamster Kombat’ Airdrop Delayed as Pre-Market Trading for Telegram Game Expands
Citigroup Executive Steps Down To Explore Crypto
Mostbet Güvenilir Mi – Casino Bonus 2024
Bitcoin flashes indicator that often precedes higher prices: CryptoQuant
Crypto Market Movers: 5 Altcoins Making Waves This Bull Run
Trending
- 1 month ago
182267361726451435
- 24/7 Cryptocurrency News2 months ago
Top Crypto News Headlines of The Week
- Donald Trump3 months ago
Why Did Trump Change His Mind on Bitcoin?
- Bitcoin3 months ago
Ethereum, Solana touch key levels as Bitcoin spikes
- Opinion3 months ago
Bitcoin Open-Source Development Takes The Stage In Nashville
- Bitcoin3 months ago
Bitcoin 20% Surge In 3 Weeks Teases Record-Breaking Potential
- Altcoins3 months ago
Ethereum Crash A Buying Opportunity? This Whale Thinks So
- News2 months ago
New U.S. president must bring clarity to crypto regulation, analyst says