Options-implied probabilities are calculated by using the Block-Scholes model or other pricing models that take into account factors like current spot market price, strike price, time to expiration, volatility, and the risk-free rate. Options-based probabilities are positively correlated with implied volatility: The greater the volatility, the higher the odds of bitcoin hitting certain levels.

Bitcoin’s price has rebounded from a ten-day low as traders attempt to gauge a short-term direction amid a “liquidity hunt” following last week’s surge to its near-all-time high.

The asset is trading relatively flat on the day to around $67,500 after dropping to as little as $65,160 on Thursday, CoinGecko data shows.

It comes as Bitcoin’s price breached $69,000 on Sunday—the asset’s all-time high, set on March 14, stands at just above $73,700.

That has some experts postulating the asset’s move lower this week may have been short-lived.

“We don’t see this necessarily as linked to U.S. election odds moving around but more of a natural liquidity hunt after a big move up last week,” Ryan McMillin, chief investment officer at crypto fund manager Merkle Tree Capital, told Decrypt.

A liquidity hunt refers to the process where the market “flushes out” leveraged positions, particularly those with long exposure or traders betting on price increases.

When traders are leveraged long, a price reversal can force them to sell or liquidate their positions, creating downward pressure on an asset’s price. This is viewed as a healthy correction, clearing out speculative excess before the market can resume its upward trend, McMillin said.

“We expect we’ll retest the $70,000 resistance again soon, but we could have to wait until the U.S. election for a real breakout.”

The U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5 could prove pivotal for the industry, with participants expecting either former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris to introduce favorable regulations offering clearer guidance for businesses operating in the country.

It is already proving to be a boon for Bitcoin’s resilience in the lead-up to that date, experts told Decrypt.

While the election remains a tight-knit race, according to polling from FiveThirtyEight, which shows Trump is slightly ahead, Bitcoin’s price is expected to fluctuate between $63,000 and $68,000 in the final days.

That’s according to Pratik Kala, portfolio manager and head of research at digital asset fund manager Apollo Crypto. 

“A decisive break above $71,000 will point to the market placing a high probability of a Trump win,” Kala told Decrypt.

It’s a view shared by others, including those at Singapore-based digital assets trading firm QCP Capital, which wrote in a note on Wednesday Bitcoin remains “well-supported with potential upside.”

“Given Trump’s more crypto-friendly stance, it’s no surprise that Bitcoin is trading higher,” it said.

The firm pointed to the convergence of the election and Non-Farm Payroll data scheduled for release on November 1, which is expected to show a modest increase in employment figures.

“All eyes are on the NFP release next Friday as uncertainty around the labor market persists,” QCP wrote. “As the last NFP report before the next Fed meeting, it will play a critical role in shaping expectations for the Fed’s next move on interest rates.”