Bitcoin has been steadily climbing since crossing the $60,000 mark and is currently hovering closer to the $70,000 level, a price it hasn’t reached in months. With the market sentiment heating up, investors are wondering whether Bitcoin has the strength to reach new all-time highs or if it will struggle to break past key resistance levels.

A Healthy Sentiment

The Fear and Greed Index is a useful tool for understanding market sentiment and how traders view the trajectory of Bitcoin. Currently, the index is at a “Greed” level of around 70, which is historically seen as a positive sign but still a fair distance from the extreme greed levels that could indicate a potential market top. This index measures emotions in the market, with lower levels indicating fear and higher levels suggesting greed. Typically, when the index surpasses the 90+ range, the market becomes overly bullish, raising concerns of overextension.

It’s important to note that last year, when the Fear and Greed Index reached similar levels, Bitcoin was trading at around $34,000. From there, it more than doubled to $73,000 over the following months.

Key Support

The Short-Term Holder Realized Price measures the average price new Bitcoin investors have paid for their bitcoin. It’s crucial because it often acts as a strong support level during bull markets and as resistance during bear markets. Currently, this price sits around $62,000, and Bitcoin has managed to stay above it. This is a promising sign, as it shows that newer market participants are in profit, and Bitcoin is holding above a crucial support zone. Historically, breaking below this level has led to market weakness, so maintaining this support is key to any continued rally.

We’ve seen this dynamic in past cycles, especially during the 2016-2017 bull market, where Bitcoin retraced to this level several times before continuing its climb. If this trend holds, Bitcoin’s recent breakthrough could provide a foundation for further gains.

Stabilizing Market

One area that traders often watch is Funding Rates, which indicate the cost of holding long or short positions in Bitcoin futures. Over the past few months, funding rates have been volatile, swinging between overly optimistic long positions and overly bearish short positions. Thankfully, the market has now stabilized, with funding rates sitting at neutral levels. This is a healthy sign as it suggests traders aren’t overly leveraged in either direction.

In neutral territory, there’s less risk of a liquidation cascade, a common phenomenon when over-leveraged positions get wiped out, causing sharp market drops. As long as the funding rates remain stable, Bitcoin could have the breathing room it needs to continue rising without major volatility.

A Tough Path to $70,000 and Beyond

While the market sentiment and technicals suggest that Bitcoin is in a healthy place, there are still significant levels of resistance above. First, the current resistance trend line is one that Bitcoin has struggled to break. This downtrend line has been tested several times, but each time, Bitcoin has retraced after hitting it.

Beyond this, Bitcoin faces several additional barriers, such as $70,000. This level has acted as resistance in the past and represents a psychological level that traders will likely be watching closely. And above that the all-time high between $73,000 and $74,000. Breaking this would be a major bullish signal, but it could take several attempts before Bitcoin clears this level.

One positive technical element is the recent reclaim of the 200 daily moving average. A key level for investors to watch that had acted as resistance for BTC over the previous few months.

The Macro Environment: Institutional and ETF Inflows

Beyond technical indicators, the macro environment is increasingly favorable for Bitcoin. Institutional money continues to flow into Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). In the past few days, over $1 billion has flowed into Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting growing confidence in the asset. Over the past few weeks, we’ve seen hundreds of millions more in ETF inflows, signaling that smart money, particularly institutional investors, is bullish on Bitcoin’s future.

This is significant because institutional money tends to take a long-term view, providing a more stable base of support than retail speculation. Moreover, as equities and even gold have been gaining ground in recent months, Bitcoin appears to be lagging slightly behind. This could set the stage for Bitcoin to play catch-up, particularly if investors rotate from traditional assets into the more risk-on realm of Bitcoin.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s price action, funding rates, and sentiment all suggest that the market is in a healthier place than it has been in months. Institutional inflows into ETFs and improving macro conditions add further bullish tailwinds. However, significant resistance lies ahead, and any rally will likely face challenges before Bitcoin can truly break out to new highs.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here:

Can Bitcoin Now Make A New ATH

Bitcoin miners have always been a reliable indicator of the overall sentiment within the market. By tracking their earnings and actions, we can get a sense of where the price of BTC might head next. In this article, we’ll explore the latest trends in Bitcoin mining, how miners are reacting to current market conditions, and what we can learn from key indicators to gauge how Bitcoin miners are positioning themselves for the coming weeks and months.

State of Miner Earnings

One of the best ways to assess Bitcoin miner sentiment is to examine their earnings in relation to historical data. This can be done using The Puell Multiple, which measures current miner earnings against the yearly average from the previous year.

As of the latest data, the Puell Multiple is hovering around 0.8, meaning miners are earning 80% of what they were making on average over the past year. This is a marked improvement from a few weeks ago when the multiple was as low as 0.53, indicating miners were earning just over half of their previous year’s average.

This significant drop earlier in the year likely put financial pressure on many miners. However, despite these challenges, the fact that the Puell Multiple is recovering suggests that the outlook for miners might be improving.

Hashrate and Network Growth

Even though earnings are down, there are no signs of miners leaving the network. In fact, Bitcoin’s hashrate, which is the total computational power used to secure the network, has been steadily increasing. This surge in hashrate indicates that more miners are entering the network or existing miners are upgrading their equipment to compete for block rewards.

However, looking at the Hash Ribbons Indicator, which tracks the 30-day (blue line) and 60-day (purple line) moving averages of Bitcoin’s hashrate, these two averages have been getting closer to crossing, which could potentially indicate a bearish outlook for the short term. When the 60-day average rises above the 30-day average, it historically points to miner capitulation, a time when miners, under financial stress, shut off their equipment.

Until we see a bearish crossover, there’s no immediate sign of bearishness. One positive is that every time this happens, it has been followed by a period of accumulation, which typically precedes a rise in Bitcoin prices. Investors often consider these capitulation periods great opportunities to buy BTC at lower prices.

How Much Are Miners Making?

While we’ve discussed miner earnings in relation to Bitcoin’s price, another important factor is the Hashprice, the amount of BTC or USD miners can earn for each terahash (TH/s) of computational power they contribute to the network.

Currently, miners earn approximately 0.73 BTC per terahash, or about $45,000 in USD terms. This amount has been steadily decreasing in the months following the latest Bitcoin halving event, where miners’ block rewards were cut in half, reducing their profitability. Despite these challenges, miners are still increasing their hashrate, which suggests they’re betting on future BTC price appreciation to compensate for their lower earnings.

One of the most interesting metrics to watch is the Hashprice Volatility, which tracks how stable or volatile miner earnings are over time. Historically, periods of low hashprice volatility have preceded significant price movements for Bitcoin. As of the latest data, hashprice volatility has begun to drop again, suggesting we could be nearing a period of substantial price movement for Bitcoin.

Conclusion

Bitcoin miner earnings are down compared to a historical average post-halving, but they’re recovering from a recent significant low. Bitcoin’s hashrate is still climbing; meaning miners are pouring more computational power into the network despite lower profitability. The hashprice continues to drop, but miners remain optimistic, likely due to expected future price appreciation. Hashprice volatility is falling, historically indicating that a large move in BTC’s price could be imminent.

Bitcoin miners seem to be bullish about the long-term potential of BTC, despite current challenges. If current metric trends hold, we could be on the verge of a significant price movement, with most indications pointing towards a positive outlook.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here:

What Do Bitcoin Miners Expect Next?

As we enter Q4, a period historically known for strong Bitcoin performance, the latest edition of The Bitcoin Report from Bitcoin Magazine Pro delivers essential insights into the evolving market dynamics of Bitcoin. With a blend of quantitative on-chain data, technical analysis, and macroeconomic perspectives, this report offers a comprehensive look at Bitcoin’s positioning, highlighting critical opportunities and challenges for both investors and market participants.

Key Highlights from the Report:

• Historical Q4 Performance: Bitcoin has averaged a 23.3% return in Q4, showing a strong seasonal trend toward bullish performance.
• Breaking Significant Resistance: Recent technical analysis points to Bitcoin breaking through key resistance levels, potentially setting the stage for parabolic growth.
• Derivatives Market Momentum: The derivatives market shows renewed momentum, with rising open interest and reduced leverage across major exchanges.
• Mining Profitability Recovery: Mining profitability has rebounded, with hash price reaching a two-month high, signaling a strengthening of Bitcoin’s underlying fundamentals.
• Institutional Accumulation: In September, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs purchased 17,941 Bitcoins—32.9% more than the 13,500 new Bitcoins mined during the same period, indicating significant institutional demand.

This 21-page report is built on a solid foundation of on-chain metrics, technical analysis, and macroeconomic factors. It provides an in-depth examination of Bitcoin’s recent market developments, including trends like institutional accumulation and mining profitability recovery. With Q4 historically delivering strong returns for Bitcoin, the report highlights how macroeconomic factors—such as potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and liquidity injections from the People’s Bank of China—could act as catalysts for Bitcoin’s continued growth. In a low-leverage environment within derivatives markets, these monetary policies may spark a new Bitcoin rally.

Expert Analysis and Insights

Featuring exclusive commentary and insights from leading industry figures like Lyn Alden, The Rational Root, and Julian Liniger, this second monthly edition of The Bitcoin Report is a must-read for both investors and enthusiasts. 

The analytical rigor presented in this edition is further enriched by the perspectives of thought leaders such as Philip Swift, Pete Rizzo, Dr. Michael Tabone, Dr. Demelza Hays, Patrick Heusser, Lucas Betschart, Lukas Pfeiffer, Pascal Hugli, and Joël Kai Lenz. Their insights cover a spectrum of issues including macroeconomic policy implications, sector-specific developments, and technical indicators. By leveraging the collective expertise of leading analysts, The Bitcoin Report delivers an unparalleled breadth of analysis, from micro-level on-chain behaviors to macro-level geopolitical and economic drivers influencing Bitcoin’s adoption curve.

Share, Discuss, and Engage

We invite you to read and download the September edition, filled with insights that will keep you ahead in this fast-evolving market. Whether you’re managing portfolios, seeking long-term Bitcoin exposure, or simply staying informed, The Bitcoin Report provides the knowledge you need to stay on top of the trend.

Feel free to share the report’s content, take screenshots, and post on social media using the hashtag #TheBitcoinReport. By tracking these conversations, we can improve future editions and continue delivering high-value content to the Bitcoin community.

Opportunities for Sponsorship and Collaboration

Interested in sponsoring future editions of The Bitcoin Report or exploring joint-publication opportunities? Partner with us to gain exposure in the fast-growing Bitcoin space.

For more information, reach out to Mark Mason at mark.mason@btcmedia.org to discuss how your brand can be part of this exciting initiative.