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Crypto turns green as Bitcoin flirts with $73k

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Most cryptocurrencies are trading in the green in the past 24 hours, as Bitcoin price rose to $73,000 to push the global crypto market cap to $2.45 trillion.

This happens as Bitcoin (BTC), the flagship digital asset, topped $73,000 on Oct. 29. This is the highest level for BTC since bulls hit the all-time high in March2024.

Per crypto.news data, BTC price rose to highs of $73,001 across major exchanges, with a 5.7% surge in 24 hours. This meant bulls touched the psychological $73,000 mark again. While Bitcoin trades just below $72,930 at the time of writing, crypto analysts suggest bulls may not be done yet.

In an Oct. 28 interview with CNBC, VanEck head of digital assets Matthew Sigel said the current market, including the Nov. 5 vote, offers a very bullish setup for Bitcoin.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt also added to the bullish projection, suggesting BTC is headed to $94k.

Some analysts expect a breakout past the ATH will invite a breather as likely profits attract bids. However, the more bullish perspective is that the market is set to continue higher in coming months.

 This sentiment has helped push most altcoins higher. Ethereum (ETH) is above $2,650, BNB (BNB) above $607 and Solana (SOL) $181. Sui (SUI) is up 24% to $2.03, while meme coins have also pumped, led by Popcat (POPCAT).

However, there are sectors that have outpaced the rest and could continue to dominate.

According to crypto analyst Miles Deutscher, memes with +219% year-to-date are the top performing sector. However, also outpacing the rest of the market have been artificial intelligence, real-world assets, Bitcoin ecosystem and decentralized physical infrastructure network.

Per the analyst, AI tokens are up 217% YTD as are BRC-20 tokens, while RWA (+134%) and DePIN (+73%) have topped amid the 2024 bull cycle.

But not all sectors are enjoying an uptick year-to-date. While coins in social finance, zero-knowledge and metaverse have nudged higher in recent weeks, SocialFi is down 57%, ZK -36% and metaverse -30% to rank among worst performing sectors. Governance tokens and layer-2 tokens are also in this category, with -25% and -16% YTD returns respectively.





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Bitcoin Magazine Pro

Is Bitcoin Repeating Previous Bull Cycles?

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Bitcoin’s price cycles have long been a source of intrigue for investors and analysts alike. We can gain insights into potential price movements by comparing current trends to previous cycles, especially with Bitcoin seemingly coming to an end of its consolidation period, many wonder if the next leg up is around the corner.

Comparing Bitcoin Cycles

To begin, it’s crucial to look at how Bitcoin has performed since hitting its recent cycle low. As we examine the data, a clear picture begins to form: Bitcoin’s current price action (black line) is showing patterns similar to previous bull cycles. Although it has been a choppy consolidation period, where the price has been relatively stagnant, there are key similarities when we compare this cycle to those in 2015-2018 (purple line) and 2018-2022 (blue line).

Figure 1: BTC Growth Since Cycle Lows showing similarities with our previous two cycles. View Live Chart 🔍

Where we are today, in terms of percentage gains, is comparable to both the 2018 and 2015 cycles. However, this comparison only scratches the surface. Price action alone doesn’t tell the full story, so we need to dive deeper into investor behavior and other metrics that shape the Bitcoin market.

Investor Behavior

One key metric that gives us insight into investor behavior is the MVRV Z-Score. This ratio compares Bitcoin’s current market price to its “realized price” (or cost basis), which represents the average price at which all Bitcoin on the network was accumulated. The Z-Score then just standardizes the raw MVRV data for BTC volatility to exclude extreme outliers.

Figure 2: Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score gives insights into profits and losses for the average investor. View Live Chart 🔍

Analyzing metrics such as this one, as opposed to purely focusing on price actions, will allow us to see patterns and similarities in our current cycle to previous ones, not just in dollar movements but also in investor habits and sentiment.

Correlating Movements

To better understand how the current cycle aligns with previous ones, we turn to the data from Bitcoin Magazine Pro, which offers in-depth insights through its API. Excluding our Genesis cycle, as there is little correlation and isolating the price and MVRV data from Bitcoin’s lowest closing prices to its highest points in our current and previous three cycles, we can see clear correlations.

Figure 3: Price and MVRV correlations between this cycle and our previous three.

2011 to 2013 Cycle: This cycle, characterized by its double peak, shows a strong 87% correlation with the current price action. The MVRV ratio also shows a high 82% correlation, meaning that not only is Bitcoin’s price behaving similarly, but so is investor behavior in terms of buying and selling.

2015 to 2017 Cycle: This cycle is actually the closest in terms of price action, boasting an 89% correlation with our current cycle. However, the MVRV ratio is slightly lower, suggesting that while prices are following similar paths, investor behavior might be slightly different.

2018 to 2021 Cycle: This most recent cycle, while positive, has the lowest correlation to current trends, indicating that the market may not be following the same patterns it did just a few years ago.

Are We in for Another Double Peak?

The strong correlation with the 2011-2013 cycle is particularly noteworthy. During that period, Bitcoin experienced a double peak, where the price surged to new all-time highs twice before entering a prolonged bear market. If Bitcoin follows this pattern, we could be on the verge of significant price movements in the coming weeks. After overlaying the price action fractal from this period over our current cycle and standardizing the returns, the similarities are instantly noticeable.

Figure 4: Overlaying a standardized fractal of the 2013 double peak cycle on our current price action.

In both cases, Bitcoin had a rapid run-up to a new high, followed by a long, choppy period of consolidation. If history repeats itself, we could see a massive price rally soon, potentially to around $140,000 before the end of the year when accounting for diminishing returns.

Patterns In Investor Behavior

Another valuable metric to examine is the Value Days Destroyed (VDD). This metric weights BTC movements by the amount being moved and the time since it was last transferred and multiplies this value by the price to offer insights into long-term investors’ behavior, specifically profit-taking.

Figure 5: VDD initial run-up and cool-off confirm similarities in investor behavior. View Live Chart 🔍

In the current cycle, VDD has shown an initial spike similar to the red spikes we saw during the 2013 double peak. This run-up as BTC ran to a new all-time high earlier this year before a sustained consolidation period could see us reaching new highs soon again if this double peak cycle pattern continues.

A More Realistic Scenario

As Bitcoin has grown and matured as an asset, we’ve seen extended cycles and diminishing returns in our two most recent cycles compared to our initial two. Therefore, it’s probably more likely that BTC follows the cycle in which we’re seeing the strongest correlation in price action.

Figure 6: Overlaying a fractal of the 2017 cycle on our current price action.

If Bitcoin follows the 2015-2017 pattern, we could still see new all-time highs before the end of 2024, but the rally would likely be slower and more sustainable. This scenario predicts a price target of around $90,000 to $100,000 by early 2025. After that, we could see continuous growth throughout the year, with a potential market peak in late 2025, although a peak of $1.2 million if we follow this pattern exactly may be optimistic!

Conclusion

Historical data suggests we’re approaching a critical turning point. Whether we follow the explosive double-peak cycle from 2011-2013 or the slower but steady rise of 2015-2017, the outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish. Monitoring key metrics like the MVRV ratio and Value Days Destroyed will provide further clues as to where the market is headed, and comparing correlations with our previous cycles will give us better insights into what may be coming.

With Bitcoin poised for a breakout, whether in the next few weeks or in 2025, if BTC even remotely follows the patterns of any of our previous cycles, investors should prepare for significant price action and potential new all-time highs sooner rather than later.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: Comparing Bitcoin Bull Runs: Which Cycle Are We Following



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Dogecoin Price Could Rally As This On-Chain Metric Turn Bullish

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Recent on-chain data shows that short-term trading activity for meme coins has been increasing, which could lead the Dogecoin price to rally.

Dogecoin’s recent 65% price retracement aligns with the typical pattern following a breakout from a multi-year descending triangle, setting the stage for a potential bull rally.

Dogecoin Price Surge: 200% Target in Sight

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has highlighted the potential for a significant movement in Dogecoin price. According to Martinez, the DOGE price is currently breaking out of a multi-year descending triangle pattern. This has historically signaled significant price increases.

In previous instances, the memecoin experienced a 200% surge following similar breakouts. however, it subsequently saw a 60% retracement before embarking on a more substantial bull run.

For historical analysis, Martinez pinned three breakouts similar to what they saw this year since 2015, each moving upward with much force. If history is to repeat itself, a midterm rally could push Dogecoin price by 200% up to $0.2236. That level was last seen in December 2021.

The coin has retreated to the current price of $0.1112, representing a 2.92% jump in the last 24 hours. Nevertheless, that historical trend looks promising. The broader market conditions, including macroeconomic and investor sentiment perspectives, will likely shape its course in the coming weeks.

Adding to the bullish sentiment, whale activity around Dogecoin also intensified, with whales accumulating 2.07B DOGE in just one week.

This marks the most significant accumulation of this token by whales since January. It also indicates strong interest from large holders and potentially setting the stage for a substantial price movement.

This, however, may not have been completely unexpected. Recently, when the crypto market experienced a sudden wave of selling pressure, Dogecoin price showed resilience, posting a gain.

In the last week alone, some 110,000 short-term traders have traded Dogecoin, far outpacing its closest rivals, Shiba Inu, DEGEN, and Pepe. This rise in trading volume indicates that traders looking to make a quick kill in the markets for meme coins continue to find this memecoin an attractive option. That could mean more speculation or a renewed focus on DOGE, which leads the meme coin market.

DOGE Community Back in Action With Active Addresses Surge

First and foremost, it should be underlined that historically, each time Dogecoin price has broken out of its multi-year descending triangle pattern, this has been followed by a serious rally in price, with returns of about 200%.

Following that initial surge, the market usually undergoes a retracement of about 60%. This has often formed a consolidation before the next primary uptrend. If history is any guide, this breakout could be the starting point of yet another strong rally.

Active DOGE addresses have recently surged to 133,880, marking the highest level in the past eight months.

This significant increase highlights a resurgence in interest within the DOGE community, particularly as new users flock to the network.

Analysts attribute this growth to a combination of factors, including a broader positive sentiment in the market and a growing number of wallets, which reached over 90 million. The increase in active addresses reflects a spike in participation. It also hints at potential bullish momentum for DOGE moving forward​.

The meme coin gained a peak as recently as September 28, 2024, when DOGE touched $0.1350. It has since lost around 15% of that value. It has nonetheless gained some poise at the start of October.

At the time of writing on October 12, DOGE was trading at $0.1111, representing a 2.64% week-over-week rise. Analysts remain upbeat that DOGE might rise to $0.1315 this month and have growing whale interest to support such a rebound.

According to recent Santiment data, whales holding between 1 and 10 million DOGE in wallets continued aggressively accumulating DOGE. This has been ongoing since October 2024, even with great volatility in prices. This is a sign that larger holders seem quite confident in the coin’s future potential.

Historically, when this accumulation trend emerges, it has often aligned with a market bottom and signaled a probable price reversal. If the pattern holds, then Dogecoin price might be preparing for a big upward movement in the near term, as confidence among these “whale” investors usually precedes market rebounds.

Whale Accumulation and New Users Fuel Dogecoin’s Rise

Speculation is well underway over Dogecoin’s future trajectory, which leads to notable growth, particularly in active addresses and whale accumulation.

For instance, the increase in active addresses denotes that new users are starting to pour into the market, likely in anticipation of further developments in the Dogecoin network. This enthusiasm among newcomers is of the essence because it signals renewed enthusiasm from investors.

However, it is tough to predict what will happen in the future with Dogecoin price. Though a strong community and endorsement by high-profile personalities add credibility to it, like all cryptocurrencies, DOGE remains susceptible to market volatility.

More recently, this milestone has surpassed 90 million wallets, serving as a signal of a growing base, one that might be a catalyst for innovation and adoption, which has repeatedly driven leading cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum to grow.

According to some reports, the surge in active activity indicates a rekindled investor interest. With the new entrants and whales buying into it, things look high for Dogecoin price and the token to shed its meme currency tag and be positioned as a cryptocurrency with serious growth. As adoption and innovation have become the key elements for the future, the market will keenly watch how these factors pan out.

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Teuta

Teuta is a seasoned writer and editor with over 15 years of experience in macroeconomics, technology, and the cryptocurrency and blockchain industries. Starting her career in 2005 as a lifestyle writer for Cosmopolitan in Croatia, she expanded into covering business and economy for several esteemed publications like Forbes and Bloomberg. Influenced by figures like Don Tapscott and Bruce Dickinson, Teuta embraced the blockchain revolution, believing crypto to be one of humanity’s most crucial inventions. Her fintech involvement began in 2014, focusing on crypto, blockchain, NFTs, and Web3. Known for her excellent teamwork and communication skills, Teuta holds a double MA in Political Science and Law, enjoys punk rock, chablis, and has a passion for shoes.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Uptober? Cryptocurrencies bounce heading into October’s first weekend

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Cryptocurrencies attempted to shrug off geopolitical conflict-driven market slump ahead of October’s first weekend.

Major cryptocurrencies and the total digital asset market cap jumped north of 2% on Oct. 4 as ecosystem leaders like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) staged price recoveries by publishing time. Almost $36 billion flowed into Bitcoin, pushing BTC’s price above $62,300 and marking a 3% jump. Ether’s 4% appreciation raised ETH to over $2,400, and Solana (SOL) edged toward $145, per CoinGecko.

Memecoins, especially on Solana, surged with the market upswing heading into the weekend. Tokens like Gigachad (CHAD), Michi (MICHI), Popcat (POPCAT), and dogwifhat (WIF) spiked 20%-40% in the last 24 hours.

Weekly green close uncertain for crypto

Daily price upticks only slightly reversed the plunge triggered by military altercations in the Middle East. Global economies and assets shed hundreds of millions in hours as Iran launched missiles into Israel.

The resulting pullback fixed the total cryptocurrency market cap in a red candle on the weekly timeframe. Digital assets had cumulatively closed in green for three consecutive weeks during September, a month usually bearish for cryptos.

History backs green Q4 

The overall digital asset market would require an 8% recovery to regain last month’s close, and expert consensus suggested a crypto market rise might be inbound. Bitcoin has enjoyed a bullish October the last three times BTC closed September with a green monthly candle. Nine out of 11 times, the asset has surged in Q3’s first month regardless of the previous month’s price action.

Indeed, Bitcoin has averaged price increases of 22%, 46%, and 5% in the final three months of every year since 2013.

Uptober? Cryptocurrencies bounce heading into October's first weekend - 1
Monthly BTC returns since 2013 | Source: ali_charts



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