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Donald Trump’s Victory Odds Fall, Here’s How Bitcoin and Altcoins React

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5 hours ago

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As per the data from Polymarket, Donald Trump’s chances of a presidential victory dropped by a strong 4.5% just three days before the announcement of the results. As a result, Bitcoin and altcoins in the broader crypto market have taken a pause in any directional move unless things become clear further.

Donald Trump Loses Majority In Swing States

Over the past week, former President Trump held the victory odds strongly to more than 60% per the Polymarket data. However, on Friday evening, these numbers dropped by 4 percentage points. At 58.1% now, Donald Trump still maintains a lead by 16 percentage points over his rival and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.

The two states where Harris is once again gaining ground over Trump are Wisconsin and Michigan. However, he holds a formidable lead in other states like Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia.

Just over the last two days, Donald Trump’s winning percentage numbers have dropped ten odd percentage points. Investors have already taken massive bets over the rising victory odds of Donald Trump over the past month. However, this recent swing can bring some jitters across the investor community.

As per the latest WSJ report a French user is betting more than $38 million on Donald Trump’s victory while stating that he has no political motive. The user identified himself as a French national who previously lived in the United States and worked as a bank trader. If Trump wins, the user stands to gain over $80 million, but a Kamala Harris victory could mean a total or significant loss.

Bitcoin and Altcoins Take a Pause

Following the surge to $73,000 earlier this week, the Bitcoin price plunged on the last day of October to settle under $70,000. However, yesterday’s correction dragged the altcoins even lower with ETH, SOL, XRP, and others falling by even greater percentage points.

Bitcoin speculators are increasingly drawn to leveraged futures positions as anticipation builds around the upcoming U.S. election. Meanwhile, data reveals that approximately 180,000 BTC previously held by long-term holders have shifted, de-risking into the hands of significant ETF buyers.

This trend indicates a cautious but active repositioning among seasoned investors, balancing speculative and long-term strategies in the lead-up to the election. For the first time in the last eight trading sessions, the total inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs turned negative as victory chances for Donald Trump dropped further. The BlackRock Bitcoin ETF IBIT has been dominating the inflows over the past two weeks, with total inflows crossing $26 billion in a significant milestone.

The Ethereum price took a dive under $2,500 with top traders like Peter Brandt predicting further crash. However, if the bulls support the levels of $2,480, we could witness a rebound from here. As of press time, the ETH price is trading at $2,509 with a market cap of $302 billion.

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Bhushan Akolkar

Bhushan is a FinTech enthusiast with a keen understanding of financial markets. His interest in economics and finance has led him to focus on emerging Blockchain technology and cryptocurrency markets. He is committed to continuous learning and stays motivated by sharing the knowledge he acquires. In his free time, Bhushan enjoys reading thriller fiction novels and occasionally explores his culinary skills.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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24/7 Cryptocurrency News

BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit Speedbreaker As US Election Odds Shift

Published

47 mins ago

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November 2, 2024

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On Friday, the total inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs finally hit a speedbreaker as the dynamic of the US elections shifted just three days before the results. Kamala Harris seems to be taking the lead in some of the swing states while Donald Trump continues to lead in others. All of the nine BTC ETFs yesterday, saw net outflows of $55 million with the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) seeing zero inflows for the first time in nearly a month.

BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit Speedbreaker

This week, except Friday, BlackRock’s IBIT led the most inflows contributing nearly around $2.2 billion so far. It has been single-handedly dominating the BTC ETF inflows in the last month of October.

However, on Friday, the spot Bitcoin ETF inflows hit a speedbreaker with $54.9 million in outflows. Fidelity reported $25.6 million in outflows, followed by ARK with $24.1 million, per Farside Investors data. On the other hand, the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF registered zero inflows for the first time in the past several trading sessions. This signals a possible pause in the demand after record-breaking contributions.

The spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant inflows and now hold more than 5% of the total BTC supply, surpassing 1 million Bitcoin holdings. Interestingly, BlackRock’s IBIT alone holds 2% of the total supply.

Furthermore, Friday’s outflows coincide with a shift in the US election dynamics as Kamala Harris once again gains ground in the swing states.  Thus, investors could be taking a wait-and-watch approach moving ahead.

Is Donald Trump Losing Ground?

As per the Polymarket data, the odds of Doland Trump victory slipped 4.5 percentage points on Friday, with his overall winning prediction now at 58.1% while Kamala Harris has gained the same amount moving to 41.9%.

As a result, the broader crypto market has paused waiting for some clear indications for the further move. After moving all the way to $73,000 earlier this week, the Bitcoin price has once again dropped under $70,000 as of October closing.

Popular crypto analyst Ki Young Ju noted that ETF flows would be crucial for Bitcoin to gain further highs. He wrote:

“Stablecoins alone can’t provide enough buy-side liquidity for Bitcoin. The BTC-to-stablecoin ratio is 6.05, meaning BTC reserves are six times higher than stablecoins, similar to the last ATH. ETF flows and Coinbase USD liquidity will be crucial for the next few months”.

Apart from Bitcoin, altcoins have also been under a bit of selling pressure with the Ethereum (ETH) price slipping to $2,500 as bulls fail to gain enough traction.

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Bhushan Akolkar

Bhushan is a FinTech enthusiast with a keen understanding of financial markets. His interest in economics and finance has led him to focus on emerging Blockchain technology and cryptocurrency markets. He is committed to continuous learning and stays motivated by sharing the knowledge he acquires. In his free time, Bhushan enjoys reading thriller fiction novels and occasionally explores his culinary skills.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Judge Grants More Time For US Government To Negotiate FTX Donation Return

Published

9 hours ago

on

November 2, 2024

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A U.S. federal judge has granted the government additional time to negotiate the return of up to $13.25 million in political donations made by former FTX executives Sam Bankman-Fried and Nishad Singh. Judge Lewis Kaplan, presiding over the case, approved the government’s request to extend negotiations with various political action committees (PACs) until January 15, 2025. 

The US government is working to reclaim funds that Bankman-Fried and Singh donated to Democrat-aligned PACs and liberal advocacy groups before FTX’s collapse.

US Government Pushes PACs For Return of $13.25M in Donations from FTX’s Executives

In a recent court filing, the US government formally requested more time to negotiate with political action committees (PACs) that received donations linked to Sam Bankman-Fried and Nishad Singh. Judge Lewis Kaplan approved the request, allowing the US until January 15, 2025, to continue its discussions.

The PACs in question, including the Senate Majority PAC, Emily’s List/Women Vote, and the Future Forward PAC, are largely Democrat-aligned organizations. The US government is seeking the return of funds contributed in the names of Bankman-Fried and Singh, which reportedly total $13.25 million. 

According to testimony, Singh stated he made some donations at Bankman-Fried’s instruction, even signing blank checks used for political contributions.

Court Filing Details Negotiation Efforts with PACs

The court documents indicate that the government is currently negotiating with several PACs to determine the forfeitability of the donations received. The Future Forward PAC, which reportedly received $1 million in Singh’s name and $5 million from Bankman-Fried, and GMI PAC, which received $2 million, are among those targeted in the recovery efforts. Senate Majority PAC and Women Vote were also recipients, with donations amounting to $2 million and $2.25 million, respectively.

These negotiations follow broader efforts by the US government to address donations tied to FTX executives amid allegations of fraudulent activity by Bankman-Fried and his associates. Several political organizations have reportedly returned funds previously donated by the executives, while others have redirected the money to charitable causes.

As part of the ongoing investigation, Bankman-Fried’s former colleague Nishad Singh recently received a sentence of time served and three years of supervised release. Nishad will avoid prison after providing testimony against Bankman-Fried.

The case has drawn attention to the legal considerations around political contributions from sources facing allegations of financial misconduct. 

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Ronny Mugendi

Ronny Mugendi is a seasoned crypto journalist with four years of professional experience, having contributed significantly to various media outlets on cryptocurrency trends and technologies. With over 4000 published articles across various media outlets, he aims to inform, educate and introduce more people to the Blockchain and DeFi world. Outside of his journalism career, Ronny enjoys the thrill of bike riding, exploring new trails and landscapes.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Craig Wright Faces Contempt Charges After Suing Block

Published

13 hours ago

on

November 1, 2024

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Australian computer scientist and self-described Bitcoin founder Craig Wright has taken to the courts once again, this time filing a $1.18 billion lawsuit against Block, a payment company owned by Jack Dorsey.

Wright – who spuriously claims to be Satoshi Nakamoto – is accused of contempt of court by the Crypto Open Patent Alliance – COPA. It is the same group that, earlier this year, provided “overwhelming” evidence Wright did not invent Bitcoin.

“Faketoshi” Craig Wright Held in Contempt Again

An Australian computer scientist Craig Wright, who has said he invented Bitcoin, is accused of contempt of court on Friday. He filed a $1.18B lawsuit against Block, the company founded by Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey, in a British court.

Wright insists that he authored the original, 16 years old Bitcoin whitepaper, a work published under the pseudonym “Satoshi Nakamoto.” However, the court ruled that there was “overwhelming evidence” showing that Wright didn’t write the foundational 2008 document.

The Crypto Open Patent Alliance sued Craig Wright to prevent him from suing Bitcoin developers. Following a weeklong trial at London’s High Court, a judge ruled in May that Wright had lied “extensively and repeatedly.” The court also ruled Wright forged documents “on a grand scale.”

In July, the judge referred Wright to Britain’s Crown Prosecution Service to decide whether he should be put under perjury charges. The court also issued an injunction against Wright from initiating any legal action based on his claim to be Satoshi.

Denying the Document Forgery

Craig Wright is appealing a decision of the High Court. It found him to have lied and forged documents purporting his claim to be the creator of Bitcoin. A decision as to whether he will be allowed an appeal has yet to be decided.

In his testimony in February, Mr Wright denied the forgery of the documents. However, during a preliminary hearing on Friday, the COPA lawyer, Jonathan Hough, said that Wright breached the court’s injunction by filing a lawsuit against Square Up Europe Limited, a Block subsidiary, earlier this month. Wright attended the hearing via videolink from Singapore and didn’t have legal representative.

Craig Wright has said that he doesn’t believe he is in contempt of court over the Block case. He indicated that he would amend his lawsuit, if found in contempt, to make clear it has “nothing to do with the ownership of the creation of the system.” Whether Wright was in contempt will be clear at a hearing set for December. In the meantime, his suit against Block will stay active until then.

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Teuta

Teuta is a seasoned writer and editor with over 15 years of experience in macroeconomics, technology, and the cryptocurrency and blockchain industries. Starting her career in 2005 as a lifestyle writer for Cosmopolitan in Croatia, she expanded into covering business and economy for several esteemed publications like Forbes and Bloomberg. Influenced by figures like Don Tapscott and Bruce Dickinson, Teuta embraced the blockchain revolution, believing crypto to be one of humanity’s most crucial inventions. Her fintech involvement began in 2014, focusing on crypto, blockchain, NFTs, and Web3. Known for her excellent teamwork and communication skills, Teuta holds a double MA in Political Science and Law, enjoys punk rock, chablis, and has a passion for shoes.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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