Bitcoin Magazine Pro
The Bitcoin Report: Key Trends, Insights, and Bitcoin Price Forecast
Published
2 weeks agoon
By
adminDive into the full October 2024 Bitcoin Report for the latest insights and analysis. Click here to read the full report: Read the Report
The October 2024 edition of The Bitcoin Report is packed with expert insights and bullish price forecasts as Bitcoin continues to carve its place as the leading decentralized digital asset. This month, we focus on several key topics: Bitcoin’s decreasing exchange balances, ETF inflows surging past $5 billion, and bullish price targets that could redefine Bitcoin’s value over the next quarter. Featured contributions come from some of the biggest names in the Bitcoin space, including Caitlin Long, who provides an industry insight into Bitcoin’s adoption cycle, and Tone Vays, whose exclusive price forecast gives reasons for optimism as Bitcoin heads toward potential new highs.
Report Highlights:
- Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis: This section examines how decreasing exchange balances and growing self-custody reflect an increase in long-term holding sentiment. With Bitcoin exchange balances hitting new lows, it signals rising confidence among investors that are choosing to take control of their own assets rather than leave them on exchanges.
- Bitcoin ETFs: October saw over $5.4 billion in inflows to Bitcoin ETFs, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading the market. This record-setting month underscores the growing acceptance of Bitcoin in mainstream financial markets, bolstered by the approval of options trading on Bitcoin ETFs. Dr. Michael Tabone, Economist & Professor at the University of the Cumberlands, provides his take on how this surge could play out in the coming months.
- Bitcoin Mining Update: Russia and China have quietly expanded their influence in global mining, with the US still holding the largest hashrate share. Lukas Pfeiffer of Crypto Oxygen elaborates on how these shifts may reshape global mining dynamics and what it means for the future.
- Price Forecast by Tone Vays: Bitcoin analyst Tone Vays remains incredibly optimistic about Bitcoin’s future price, citing multiple technical indicators and historical patterns. The report details potential price targets ranging from $102,000 to $140,000 by mid-2025, supported by bullish technical analysis such as Fibonacci extensions and a classic cup and handle chart pattern.
- Industry Insights from Caitlin Long: Caitlin Long, Founder & CEO of Custodia Bank, provides her perspective on Bitcoin’s adoption trends and how the broader economic climate continues to favor decentralized assets. According to Long, Bitcoin’s fundamentals are strong, and a bull market could be on the horizon following the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
The report also contains valuable contributions from other experts in the Bitcoin ecosystem, including Philip Swift on Bitcoin derivatives, Lucas Betschart on regulatory changes, Pete Rizzo on Bitcoin history, Pascal Hügli with on-chain analysis, Dr. Michael Tabone on Bitcoin stocks and ETFs, Joël Kai Lenz on Bitcoin adoption, and Patrick Heusser on technical analysis. These contributions provide a well-rounded look at Bitcoin’s current state and its future potential.
Get the full insights, charts, and analysis by accessing the complete report now. We invite your organization to explore potential sponsorship or joint-publication opportunities for future editions by reaching out to Mark Mason at mark.mason@btcmedia.org. Let’s orange-pill the world together!
Download and Share: This report is freely available to all. Download, share, and help drive the conversation on Bitcoin adoption and education. Use the hashtag #TheBitcoinReport in your posts to join the movement.
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Bitcoin Magazine Pro
On-Chain Data Shows The Bitcoin Price Bull Run is Far From Over
Published
1 day agoon
November 23, 2024By
adminBitcoin’s recent price action has been nothing short of exhilarating, but beyond the market buzz lies a wealth of on-chain data offering deeper insights. By analyzing metrics that gauge network activity, investor sentiment, and the BTC market cycles, we can gain a clearer picture of Bitcoin’s current position and potential trajectory.
Plenty Of Upside Remaining
The MVRV Z-Score compares Bitcoin’s market cap, or price multiplied by circulating supply, with its realized cap, which is the average price at which all BTC were last transacted. Historically, this metric signals overheated markets when it enters the red zone, while the green zone suggests widespread losses and potential undervaluation.
Currently, despite Bitcoin’s rise to new all-time highs, the Z-score remains in neutral territory. Previous bull runs saw Z-scores reach highs of 7 to 10, far beyond the current level of around 3. If history repeats, this indicates significant room for further price growth.
Miner Profitability
The Puell Multiple evaluates miner profitability by comparing their daily USD-denominated revenue to their previous one-year moving average. Post-halving, miners’ earnings dropped by 50%, which led to a multi-month period of decreased earnings as the BTC price consolidated for most of 2024.
Yet even now, as Bitcoin has skyrocketed to new highs, the multiple indicates only a 30% increase in profitability relative to historical averages. This suggests that we are still in the early to middle stages of the bull market, and when comparing the patterns in the data we look like we have the potential for explosive growth akin to 2016 and 2020. With a post-halving reset, consolidation, and a finally a reclaim of the 1.00 multiple level signifying the exponential phase of price action.
Measuring Market Sentiment
The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) metric quantifies the network’s overall profitability, mapping sentiment across phases like optimism, belief, and euphoria. Similar to the MVRV Z-Score as it is derived from realized value or investor cost-basis, it looks at the current estimated profit or losses for all holders.
Presently, Bitcoin remains in the ‘Belief’ zone, far from ‘Euphoria’ or ‘Greed’. This aligns with other data suggesting there is ample room for price appreciation before reaching market saturation. Especially considering this metric is still at lower levels than this metric reached earlier this year in March when we set out previous all-time high.
Long-Term Holder Trends
The percentage of Bitcoin held for over a year, represented by the 1+ Year HODL Wave, remains exceptionally high at around 64%, which is still higher than at any other point in Bitcoin history prior to this cycle. Prior price peaks in 2017 and 2021 saw these values fall to 40% and 53%, respectively as long-term holders began to realize profits. If something similar were to occur during this cycle, then we still have millions of bitcoin to be transferred to new market participants.
So far, only around 800,000 BTC has been transferred from the Long Term Holder Supply to newer market participants during this cycle. In past cycles, up to 2–4 million BTC changed hands, highlighting that long-term holders have yet to cash out fully. This indicates a relatively nascent phase of the current bull run.
Tracking “Smart Money”
The Coin Days Destroyed metric weighs transactions by the holding duration of coins, emphasizing whale activity. We can then multiply that value by the BTC price at that point in time to see the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple. This gives us a clear insight into whether the largest and smartest BTC holders are beginning to realize profits in their positions.
Current levels remain far from the red zones typically seen during market tops. This means whales and “smart money” are not yet offloading significant portions of their holdings and are still awaiting higher prices before beginning to realize substantial profits.
Conclusion
Despite the rally, on-chain metrics overwhelmingly suggest that Bitcoin is far from overheated. Long-term holders remain largely steadfast, and indicators like the MVRV Z-score, NUPL, and Puell Multiple all highlight room for growth. That said, some profit-taking and new market participants signal a transition into the mid to late-cycle phase, which could potentially be sustained for most of 2025.
For investors, the key takeaway is to remain data-driven. Emotional decisions fueled by FOMO and euphoria can be costly. Instead, follow the underlying data fueling Bitcoin and use tools like the metrics discussed above to guide your own investing and analysis.
For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: What’s Happening On-chain: Bitcoin Update
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Bitcoin Magazine Pro
The Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator: How to Accurately Time Market Cycle Peaks
Published
2 days agoon
November 22, 2024By
adminThe Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator has gained legendary status in the Bitcoin community for its uncanny accuracy in identifying market cycle peaks. Historically, it has timed every single Bitcoin cycle high with remarkable precision—often within just three days. Could it work its magic again this cycle? Let’s dive deeper into how it works and its significance in navigating Bitcoin’s market cycles.
What is the Pi Cycle Top Indicator?
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is a tool designed to identify Bitcoin’s market cycle tops. Created by Philip Swift, Managing Director of Bitcoin Magazine Pro in April 2019, this indicator uses a combination of two moving averages to forecast cycle highs:
- 111-Day Moving Average (111DMA): Represents the shorter-term price trend.
- 350-Day Moving Average x 2 (350DMA x 2): A multiple of the 350DMA, which captures longer-term trends.
When the 111DMA rises sharply and crosses above the 350DMA x 2, it historically coincides with Bitcoin’s market cycle peak.
The Mathematics Behind the Name
Interestingly, the ratio of 350 to 111 equals approximately 3.153—remarkably close to Pi (3.142). This mathematical quirk gives the indicator its name and highlights the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price action over time.
Why Has It Been So Accurate?
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator has been effective in predicting the peaks of Bitcoin’s three most recent market cycles. Its ability to pinpoint the absolute tops reflects Bitcoin’s historically predictable cycles during its adoption growth phase. The indicator essentially captures the point where the market becomes overheated, as reflected by the steep rise of the 111DMA surpassing the 350DMA x 2.
How Can Investors Use This Indicator?
For investors, the Pi Cycle Top Indicator serves as a warning sign that the market may be approaching unsustainable levels. Historically, when the indicator flashes, it has been advantageous to sell Bitcoin near the top of the market cycle. This makes it a valuable tool for those seeking to maximize gains and minimize losses.
However, as Bitcoin matures and integrates further into the global financial system—bolstered by developments like Bitcoin ETFs and institutional adoption—the effectiveness of this indicator may diminish. It remains most relevant during Bitcoin’s early adoption phase.
A Glimpse Into the Future
The big question now is: will the Pi Cycle Top Indicator remain accurate in this cycle? With Bitcoin entering a new era of adoption and market dynamics, its cyclical patterns may evolve. Yet, this tool has proven its worth repeatedly over Bitcoin’s first 15 years, offering investors a reliable gauge of market tops.
Final Thoughts
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is a testament to Bitcoin’s cyclical nature and the power of mathematical models in understanding its price behavior. While its past accuracy has been unparalleled, only time will tell if it can once again predict Bitcoin’s next market cycle peak. For now, it remains an indispensable tool for those navigating the thrilling highs and lows of Bitcoin.
Explore the full chart and stay informed.
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Bitcoin Magazine Pro
Are Retail Investors Behind The Bitcoin Price Surge This Bull Run?
Published
1 week agoon
November 16, 2024By
adminAs Bitcoin once again finds itself in price discovery mode, market watchers and enthusiasts are curious: has retail FOMO set in yet, or is the retail surge we’ve seen in past bull cycles still on the horizon? Using data from active addresses, historical cycles, and various market indicators, we’ll examine where the Bitcoin market currently stands and what it might signal about the near future.
Rising Interest
One of the most direct signs of retail interest is the number of new Bitcoin addresses created. Historically, sharp increases in new addresses have often marked the beginning of a bull run as new retail investors flood into the market. In recent months, however, the growth in new addresses hasn’t been as sharp as one might expect. Last year, we saw around 791,000 new addresses created in a single day—a sign of considerable retail interest. In comparison, we now hover significantly lower, although we have recently seen a modest uptick in new addresses.
Google Trends also reflects this tempered interest. Although searches for “Bitcoin” have been increasing in the past month, they remain far below previous peaks in 2021 and 2017. It seems that retail investors are showing a renewed curiosity but not yet the fervent excitement typical of FOMO-driven markets.
Supply Shift
We are witnessing a slight transition of Bitcoin from long-term holders to newer, shorter-term holders. This shift in supply can hint at the potential start of a new market phase, where experienced holders begin taking profits and selling to newer market participants. However, the overall number of coins transferred remains relatively low, indicating that long-term holders aren’t yet parting with their Bitcoin in significant volumes.
Historically, during the last bull run in 2020-2021, we saw large outflows from long-term holders to newer investors, which fueled a subsequent price rally. Currently, the shift is only minor, and long-term holders seem largely unfazed by current price levels, opting to hold onto their Bitcoin despite market gains. This reluctance to sell suggests that holders are confident in further upside potential.
A Spot-Driven Rally
A key aspect of Bitcoin’s latest rally is its spot-driven nature, in contrast to previous bull runs heavily fueled by leveraged positions. Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives has seen only minor increases, which stands in sharp contrast to prior peaks. For instance, open interest was significant before the FTX crash in 2022. A spot-driven market, without excessive leverage, tends to be more stable and resilient, as fewer investors are at risk of forced liquidation.
Big Holders Accumulating
Interestingly, while retail addresses haven’t increased substantially, “whale” addresses holding at least 100 BTC have been rising. Over the past few weeks, wallets with large BTC holdings have added tens of thousands of coins, amounting to billions of dollars in value. This increase signals confidence among Bitcoin’s largest investors that the current price levels have more room to grow, even as Bitcoin reaches all-time highs.
In past bull cycles, we saw whales exit or decrease their positions near market peaks, a behavior we’re not seeing this time. This trend of accumulation by experienced holders is a strong bullish indicator, as it suggests faith in the market’s long-term potential.
Conclusion
While Bitcoin’s rally to all-time highs has brought renewed attention, we’re not yet seeing the telltale signs of widespread retail FOMO. The subdued retail interest suggests we may be only in the beginning phase of this rally. Long-term holders remain confident, whales are accumulating, and leverage remains modest, all indicators of a healthy, sustainable rally.
As we continue into this bull cycle, the market’s structure suggests that the potential for a larger retail-driven surge remains ahead. If this retail interest materializes, it could propel Bitcoin to new heights.
For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: Has Retail Bitcoin FOMO Begun?
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