As Bitcoin once again finds itself in price discovery mode, market watchers and enthusiasts are curious: has retail FOMO set in yet, or is the retail surge we’ve seen in past bull cycles still on the horizon? Using data from active addresses, historical cycles, and various market indicators, we’ll examine where the Bitcoin market currently stands and what it might signal about the near future.

Rising Interest

One of the most direct signs of retail interest is the number of new Bitcoin addresses created. Historically, sharp increases in new addresses have often marked the beginning of a bull run as new retail investors flood into the market. In recent months, however, the growth in new addresses hasn’t been as sharp as one might expect. Last year, we saw around 791,000 new addresses created in a single day—a sign of considerable retail interest. In comparison, we now hover significantly lower, although we have recently seen a modest uptick in new addresses.

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Google Trends also reflects this tempered interest. Although searches for “Bitcoin” have been increasing in the past month, they remain far below previous peaks in 2021 and 2017. It seems that retail investors are showing a renewed curiosity but not yet the fervent excitement typical of FOMO-driven markets.

Supply Shift

We are witnessing a slight transition of Bitcoin from long-term holders to newer, shorter-term holders. This shift in supply can hint at the potential start of a new market phase, where experienced holders begin taking profits and selling to newer market participants. However, the overall number of coins transferred remains relatively low, indicating that long-term holders aren’t yet parting with their Bitcoin in significant volumes.

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Historically, during the last bull run in 2020-2021, we saw large outflows from long-term holders to newer investors, which fueled a subsequent price rally. Currently, the shift is only minor, and long-term holders seem largely unfazed by current price levels, opting to hold onto their Bitcoin despite market gains. This reluctance to sell suggests that holders are confident in further upside potential.

A Spot-Driven Rally

A key aspect of Bitcoin’s latest rally is its spot-driven nature, in contrast to previous bull runs heavily fueled by leveraged positions. Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives has seen only minor increases, which stands in sharp contrast to prior peaks. For instance, open interest was significant before the FTX crash in 2022. A spot-driven market, without excessive leverage, tends to be more stable and resilient, as fewer investors are at risk of forced liquidation.

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Big Holders Accumulating

Interestingly, while retail addresses haven’t increased substantially, “whale” addresses holding at least 100 BTC have been rising. Over the past few weeks, wallets with large BTC holdings have added tens of thousands of coins, amounting to billions of dollars in value. This increase signals confidence among Bitcoin’s largest investors that the current price levels have more room to grow, even as Bitcoin reaches all-time highs.

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In past bull cycles, we saw whales exit or decrease their positions near market peaks, a behavior we’re not seeing this time. This trend of accumulation by experienced holders is a strong bullish indicator, as it suggests faith in the market’s long-term potential.

Conclusion

While Bitcoin’s rally to all-time highs has brought renewed attention, we’re not yet seeing the telltale signs of widespread retail FOMO. The subdued retail interest suggests we may be only in the beginning phase of this rally. Long-term holders remain confident, whales are accumulating, and leverage remains modest, all indicators of a healthy, sustainable rally.

As we continue into this bull cycle, the market’s structure suggests that the potential for a larger retail-driven surge remains ahead. If this retail interest materializes, it could propel Bitcoin to new heights.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: Has Retail Bitcoin FOMO Begun?

Bitcoin miners are sending a clear message: they’re more bullish than ever. As we observe new all-time highs in the Bitcoin network’s hash rate, the commitment of miners underscores their confidence in the asset’s long-term potential.

The Hash Ribbons Indicator Explained

The Hash Ribbons indicator provides insight into miner activity and sentiment by analyzing the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of Bitcoin’s hash rate. When the 30-day moving average crosses above the 60-day, it suggests a positive shift, often interpreted as miner capitulation coming to an end. This shift typically signals that weaker miners have exited the market, leaving only resilient participants and setting the stage for potential price recovery.

Why All-Time Highs in Hash Rate Matter

As the Bitcoin network’s hash rate climbs to new peaks, it highlights the increasing amount of computational power devoted to securing the blockchain. This rise not only reflects strong miner confidence but also enhances the network’s resilience and security. In the current climate, these hash rate highs indicate that miners are holding their ground, undeterred by market fluctuations.

Interpreting the Current Hash Ribbon Signal

The chart above shows a recent bullish crossover in the Hash Ribbons, indicating the end of miner capitulation. Historically, these crossovers have often aligned with favorable price action in the weeks and months that follow. With hash rate reaching unprecedented levels, this crossover suggests that miners anticipate a period of sustained growth.

For an in-depth look at the Hash Ribbons Indicator and to stay updated with future movements, visit the source here: Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Bitcoin has historically followed a familiar four-year cycle. Now, two years into the current cycle, investors are closely watching patterns and market indicators for insights into what the next two years may hold. This article dives into the anatomy of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, past market behavior, and future possibilities.

The 4 Year Cycle

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is partly influenced by the scheduled halving events, which reduce the block reward miners receive by 50% every four years. This halving decreases the supply of new Bitcoin entering the market, often creating supply-demand pressures that can push prices higher.

This can be clearly visualized by the Stock-to-Flow Model, which compares the existing BTC in circulation to its inflationary rate, and models a ‘fair-value’ based on comparable hard assets such as Gold and Silver.

Currently, we’re midway through this cycle, meaning we are potentially entering a period of exponential gains as the typical one year catch-up phase following the halving progresses.

A Look Back at 2022

Two years ago, Bitcoin faced a severe crash amid a series of corporate implosions. November 2022 marked the downfall of FTX, as rumors of insolvency triggered massive sell-offs. The domino effect was brutal, as other crypto institutions, such as BlockFi, 3AC, Celsius, and Voyager Digital, also went under.

Bitcoin’s price tumbled from around $20,000 to $15,000, mirroring the broader market panic and leaving investors worried about Bitcoin’s survival. However, true to form, Bitcoin rallied again, climbing back up fivefold from the 2022 lows. Investors who weathered the storm were rewarded, and this rebound supports the argument that Bitcoin’s cyclical nature remains intact.

Similar Sentiment

In addition to price patterns, investor sentiment also follows a predictable rhythm across each cycle. Analyzing the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), a metric showing unrealized gains and losses in the market, suggests that emotions like euphoria, fear, and capitulation repeat regularly. Bitcoin investors typically face intense feelings of fear or pessimism during each bear market, only to shift back toward optimism and euphoria as prices recover and rise. Currently, we’re once again entering the ‘Belief’ stage following our early cycle runup and subsequent consolidation.

The Global Liquidity Cycle

The global money supply and cyclical liquidity, as measured by Global M2 YoY vs BTC, has also followed a four-year cycle. For instance, M2 liquidity bottomed out in 2015 and 2018, just as Bitcoin hit lows. In 2022, M2 again hit a low point, perfectly aligning with Bitcoin’s bear market bottom. Following these periods of economic contraction, we see fiscal expansion across central banks and governments everywhere, which leads to more favorable conditions for Bitcoin price appreciation.

Familiar Patterns

Historical price analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s current trajectory is strikingly similar to previous cycles. From its lows, Bitcoin usually takes around 24-26 months to break past previous highs. In the last cycle, it took 26 months; in this cycle, Bitcoin’s price is on a similar upward trajectory after 24 months. Bitcoin has historically peaked about 35 months after its lows. If this pattern holds, we may see significant price increases through October 2025, after which another bear market could set in.

Following the anticipated peak, history suggests Bitcoin would enter a bear phase in 2026, lasting roughly one year until the next cycle begins anew. These patterns aren’t a guarantee but provide a roadmap that Bitcoin has adhered to in previous cycles. They offer a potential framework for investors to anticipate and adapt to the market.

Conclusion

Despite challenges, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has endured, largely due to its supply schedule, global liquidity, and investor psychology. As such, the four-year cycle remains a valuable tool for investors to interpret potential price movements in Bitcoin and our base case for the rest of this cycle. However, relying solely on this cycle could be shortsighted. By incorporating on-chain metrics, liquidity analysis, and real-time investor sentiment, data-driven approaches can help investors respond effectively to changing conditions.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: The 4 Year Bitcoin Cycle – Half Way Done?