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Polymarket Retains Loyal User Base a Month After Election, Data Shows

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During the dog days of summer, Polymarket’s election betting surged on (correct) speculation that the Democrats would make a “hot swap” of Joe Biden for Kamala Harris as their presidential candidate. Trading volume grew and grew through the fall. All along, doubts lingered about whether the platform’s trader base would hold steady after the ballots were cast.

On Election Day, the research arm of gaming and VC giant Animoca put out a report with a bold prediction: there’s nothing for Polymarket to worry about. The crypto-based prediction market, according to the report, had a significant base of non-election bettors to carry it through.

Naturally, there would be smaller numbers – what can be as captivating as a political face-off involving Donald Trump? – but it’d be a far cry from a ghost town. Three-quarters of Polymarket users, Animoca noted, trade contracts unrelated to the election.

A month later, that analysis is looking right.

A key data point to track is the open interest on Polymarket. Open interest, which is the total value of active positions in Polymarket’s prediction markets, reflects the platform’s liquidity, user activity, and overall market engagement.

Polymarket Open Interest (Dune)

Data from a Dune Analytics dashboard shows that while open interest hit peaked just above $475 million on Election Day – and, predictably, significantly declined in the days after – it has been ticking back up in the last week.

The data shows open interest dropped to a low of $93.91 million on November 12, then slowly climbed to $104 million by November 15 and further to $115.25 million by November 30. These aren’t bad numbers for Polymarket by any means, because this is where open interest was in mid-September, when election fever was in full swing.

Similarly, daily volumes, while down sharply from their $367 million peak the day after the election, have plateaued in the mid- to high eight figure range, which is still higher than they were in September.

The next metric to look at is the number of active wallets on the platform.

Polymarket Daily Active Wallets (Dune)

Polymarket Daily Active Wallets (Dune)

In the last week, this metric – which reflects the number of traders active on the platform – has been hovering around the mid-30,000 mark, which isn’t substantially lower than the weeklong run-up to election day, when there were an average of 39,100 active wallets at work.

And is Polymarket reliant on a few whales to drive volume? Not really.

Polymarket Average Bet Size (Dune)

Polymarket Average Bet Size (Dune)

Data shows that around 60% of all bets are coming in under $100, and only 5.8% of bets are between $1,000 and $5,000.

Polymarket is here to stay, but dark clouds remain. It needs to work through its legal issues, which may soon be resolved if President-elect Trump installs a crypto-friendly financial regulatory regime.

Influencer Mea Culpa

A social media influencer involved in a Kalshi plot to bash Polymarket and its founder, Shayne Coplan, has apologized for a post in which he called Coplan the “n-word” and said he “look[ed] guilty.”

“I was doing other business with Kalshi and just tweeted it,” Antonio Brown wrote on X (formerly Twitter) Saturday. “I want to say sry to Shayne Coplan.”

Earlier, Clown World, an influencer account that regularly tweets Kalshi-related content, deleted a post calling Coplan and convicted fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried lookalikes.

Kalshi’s CEO, Tarek Mansour, has previously declined to comment on the record.

Markets Missed Biden Pardon

Hunter Biden, the wayward son of President Joe Biden, was pardoned Sunday, a move that surprised many – including traders on Polymarket.

The pardon covers all offenses committed in a ten-year period between January 1, 2014, and December 1 of this year, a statement from the White House reads. This covers Hunter’s tax and gun charges – in addition to any undetected crimes.

Before the pardon announcement, contracts representing the yes side of the question were trading around 28 to 30 cents, reflecting a 28% to 30% chance a pardon would happen. Now that the White House has confirmed the executive grant of clemency, these contracts shot up to 100%, which means they will pay out 1 USDC, each worth $1, per share.

The market was skeptical a pardon would happen, given multiple pledges by the President that it would not.

In June, the elder Biden promised to respect a jury decision regarding a gun charge and not pardon his son. At the time, the market was giving a 12% chance of a pardon.

Data aggregator Polymarket Analytics shows that the top holder of the yes side, a user who goes by “PollsR4Dummies” took home $223,472 on his bet of $87,740.

The polling skeptic is also holding two long-shot yes positions, betting that Fox News personality Pete Hegseth will be confirmed as Secretary of Defense, currently at 32% given recent sexual assault allegations, and that the Fed will cut interest rates three times in 2024 (the market gives this a 29% chance).





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AMP price is rising as top crypto expert sees more upside

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The AMP token experienced a robust rally, reaching $0.0144, its highest level since March 11.

Ampere (AMP) has surged by about 300% from its yearly low, pushing its market capitalization to over $910 million.

The surge coincides with a broader shift into older cryptocurrencies that outperformed in 2021, following notable surges in names like Stellar Lumens (XLM) and Ripple (XRP).

AMP’s utility in the payment industry, particularly for its fast transaction speeds and low costs, has supported its price growth. Recently, AMP technology was integrated into Flexa, a growing payment network for e-commerce.

AMP’s price also rose as crypto analysts expressed bullish sentiments about the coin. In a statement, CJ Bennet, a popular crypto analyst, noted that the coin was poised for more gains, potentially reaching a record high.

Amp’s all-time high was $0.037, meaning that it still needs to gain 235% from its current level to reach that milestone.

The coin is also gaining as investors celebrate the arrival of altcoin season. Data from CoinMarketCap shows the altcoin season index has climbed to over 80, while the fear and greed index has risen to 88. Most altcoins tend to perform well during periods of high market greed.

Meanwhile, there are signs that AMP whales are accumulating the coin. According to Etherscan, one whale moved tokens worth over $2 million from Coinbase, which is seen as a bullish signal.

AMP price analysis

amp price
AMP chart | Source: crypto.news

The daily chart shows that the AMP token price experienced a strong bullish breakout, reaching a high of $0.01450. It surpassed the crucial resistance level at $0.0091, its highest point on April 29.

The coin has formed a golden cross pattern as the 200-day and 50-day moving averages crossed each other.

The MACD and the Relative Strength Index also indicate upward momentum. Therefore, AMP needs to close above this week’s high of $0.01450 to confirm the bullish trend. A close below this high could validate a shooting star pattern, a common bearish indicator. If that occurs, the price may drop and retest the support at $0.0091.





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Monero Surges to Two-Year High of $211 as Privacy Coins Heat Up

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Privacy-focused cryptocurrency Monero surged to over $211.07 earlier today—its highest value since May 2022.

At time of publication, Monero has pulled back slightly from its local high, and is currently priced at $205.05, up 17.8% on the day and 30.6% on the week, per data from CoinGecko.

Monero’s upward momentum comes as the wider privacy coin sector has heated up over the past week, with the category as a whole up over 12% in the past 24 hours alone, according to CoinGecko data.

Leading the pack in weekly gains are cryptocurrencies including Haven (up 217%), Verge (up 188%%), Zcash (up 27.5%), and Decred (up 30%).

What are privacy coins?

Privacy coins use a variety of cryptographic techniques to shield details of transactions from public view, including ring signatures, single-use addresses and zk-SNARKs (Zero-Knowledge Succinct Non-Interactive Argument of Knowledge).

Advocates for privacy coins argue that they provide an equivalent level of privacy to physical cash, and that the radical transparency of the majority of blockchains makes cryptocurrencies unsuitable for transactions. That’s because identities can be linked to wallet addresses—exposing their entire financial history.

However, privacy coins have also come under intense scrutiny from governments and law enforcement, who claim that their ability to shield transactions makes them a magnet for criminals. Accordingly, numerous efforts have been made to crack Monero’s privacy. But, so far, there’s been no indication of success.

The recent rise in the price of privacy coins comes after crypto privacy advocates scored a notable win in court, with the U.S. Fifth Circuit Court ruling that the Treasury overstepped by sanctioning coin mixer Tornado Cash.

The decision, reversing a lower court ruling, held that immutable smart contracts such as those used by Tornado Cash cannot be classed as property “because they are not capable of being owned.”

While Tornado Cash is a coin mixing service rather than a privacy coin in its own right, its TORN token has surged from around $3.60 in November to a current price of around $18—briefly reaching as high as $33.64.

The regulatory clampdown on privacy coins such as Monero has seen the cryptocurrency delisted from many exchanges, including Binance and Kraken. In June 2020, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated that while he personally wanted to list Monero on the exchange, “behind-the-scenes conversations” with regulators had convinced Coinbase to hold off.

Edited by Stacy Elliott.

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DCG Confirms Reports Foundry Layoffs, Says its 16% of U.S. Employees

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Digital Currency Group (DCG) owned mining pool Foundry has laid off 16% of its U.S.-based employees and a “small team in India.”

“We are continuously refining our strategy to ensure long-term success and growth in a dynamic market. We recently made the strategic decision to focus Foundry on our core business – operating the #1 Bitcoin mining pool in the world and growing our site operations business – while we supported the development of DCG’s newest subsidiaries, including Yuma and the spinout of Foundry’s successful self-mining business,” a DCG spokesperson said via email.

A spokesperson for the company said that DCG’s most recent shareholder letter already disclosed plans for this realignment.

“As part of this realignment, we made the difficult decision to reduce Foundry’s workforce, resulting in layoffs across multiple teams. We’re grateful for the contributions of all our employees, including those impacted by these changes,” the spokesperson continued.

Across the board, miners are under pressure to cut costs as the halving cuts the number of new bitcoins created per block in half, making mining less profitable.

The bitcoin hashprice index, a measure of the earnings a miner can anticipate from a given amount of hashrate, is down significantly over the last year to roughly $60 per hash/day, down from an average of around $100 in December – however the price has ticked up in the last three months.

The Hashrate Index (hashrateindex.com)

The Hashrate Index (hashrateindex.com)

In a recent report, investment bank JPMorgan said that the notional value of all remaining bitcoin left to be mined is $74 billion given current bitcoin prices and the miners’ stocks have been underperforming.

Bitcoin is up over 130% in the last year, according to CoinDesk data.





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