Markets
Polymarket Retains Loyal User Base a Month After Election, Data Shows
Published
4 months agoon
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admin
During the dog days of summer, Polymarket’s election betting surged on (correct) speculation that the Democrats would make a “hot swap” of Joe Biden for Kamala Harris as their presidential candidate. Trading volume grew and grew through the fall. All along, doubts lingered about whether the platform’s trader base would hold steady after the ballots were cast.
On Election Day, the research arm of gaming and VC giant Animoca put out a report with a bold prediction: there’s nothing for Polymarket to worry about. The crypto-based prediction market, according to the report, had a significant base of non-election bettors to carry it through.
Naturally, there would be smaller numbers – what can be as captivating as a political face-off involving Donald Trump? – but it’d be a far cry from a ghost town. Three-quarters of Polymarket users, Animoca noted, trade contracts unrelated to the election.
A month later, that analysis is looking right.
A key data point to track is the open interest on Polymarket. Open interest, which is the total value of active positions in Polymarket’s prediction markets, reflects the platform’s liquidity, user activity, and overall market engagement.
Data from a Dune Analytics dashboard shows that while open interest hit peaked just above $475 million on Election Day – and, predictably, significantly declined in the days after – it has been ticking back up in the last week.
The data shows open interest dropped to a low of $93.91 million on November 12, then slowly climbed to $104 million by November 15 and further to $115.25 million by November 30. These aren’t bad numbers for Polymarket by any means, because this is where open interest was in mid-September, when election fever was in full swing.
Similarly, daily volumes, while down sharply from their $367 million peak the day after the election, have plateaued in the mid- to high eight figure range, which is still higher than they were in September.
The next metric to look at is the number of active wallets on the platform.
In the last week, this metric – which reflects the number of traders active on the platform – has been hovering around the mid-30,000 mark, which isn’t substantially lower than the weeklong run-up to election day, when there were an average of 39,100 active wallets at work.
And is Polymarket reliant on a few whales to drive volume? Not really.
Data shows that around 60% of all bets are coming in under $100, and only 5.8% of bets are between $1,000 and $5,000.
Polymarket is here to stay, but dark clouds remain. It needs to work through its legal issues, which may soon be resolved if President-elect Trump installs a crypto-friendly financial regulatory regime.
Influencer Mea Culpa
A social media influencer involved in a Kalshi plot to bash Polymarket and its founder, Shayne Coplan, has apologized for a post in which he called Coplan the “n-word” and said he “look[ed] guilty.”
… @PirateWires @shayne_coplan I posted something sent by the Kalshi team about the Polymarket creator… I didn’t do research on it & honestly didn’t even know what I was posting when I posted it. I was doing other business with Kalshi and just tweeted it…. I want to say sry…
— AB (@AB84) November 30, 2024
“I was doing other business with Kalshi and just tweeted it,” Antonio Brown wrote on X (formerly Twitter) Saturday. “I want to say sry to Shayne Coplan.”
Earlier, Clown World, an influencer account that regularly tweets Kalshi-related content, deleted a post calling Coplan and convicted fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried lookalikes.
Kalshi’s CEO, Tarek Mansour, has previously declined to comment on the record.
Markets Missed Biden Pardon
Hunter Biden, the wayward son of President Joe Biden, was pardoned Sunday, a move that surprised many – including traders on Polymarket.
The pardon covers all offenses committed in a ten-year period between January 1, 2014, and December 1 of this year, a statement from the White House reads. This covers Hunter’s tax and gun charges – in addition to any undetected crimes.
Before the pardon announcement, contracts representing the yes side of the question were trading around 28 to 30 cents, reflecting a 28% to 30% chance a pardon would happen. Now that the White House has confirmed the executive grant of clemency, these contracts shot up to 100%, which means they will pay out 1 USDC, each worth $1, per share.
The market was skeptical a pardon would happen, given multiple pledges by the President that it would not.
In June, the elder Biden promised to respect a jury decision regarding a gun charge and not pardon his son. At the time, the market was giving a 12% chance of a pardon.
Data aggregator Polymarket Analytics shows that the top holder of the yes side, a user who goes by “PollsR4Dummies” took home $223,472 on his bet of $87,740.
The polling skeptic is also holding two long-shot yes positions, betting that Fox News personality Pete Hegseth will be confirmed as Secretary of Defense, currently at 32% given recent sexual assault allegations, and that the Fed will cut interest rates three times in 2024 (the market gives this a 29% chance).
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CEX.io
Tokenized Gold Nears $2B Market Cap as Tariff Fears Spark Safe Haven Trade
Published
3 hours agoon
April 10, 2025By
admin
As risk assets including cryptocurrencies struggled on Thursday amid tariff uncertainties, tokenized gold once again emerged as an outperformer in the carnage.
The market capitalization of gold-backed tokens swelled to just under $2 billion on Wednesday, up 5.7% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data. The rise coincided with the yellow metal briefly touching a fresh all-time above $3,170/oz, TradingView shows.
Alongside the price rally, gold tokens experienced a frenzy of activity and demand over the past weeks, fueled by the broader market turmoil. Weekly tokenized gold trading volume surpassed $1 billion, the highest since the U.S. banking turmoil of March 2023, according to a report by digital asset platform CEX.IO.
The two largest tokens, Paxos Gold (PAXG), Tether Gold (XAUT), making up the bulk of the tokenized gold market, saw their weekly trading volumes surging over 900% and 300%, respectively, since January 20, according to the report citing CoinGecko data. PAXG also experienced continuous inflows totalling $63 million during this period, DefiLlama data shows.
The rally tracks the broader gains in physical gold, which posted double-digit increases in 2025 amid geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns. However, even gold wasn’t spared during the market-wide sell-off triggered by U.S. tariffs, with prices briefly dropping 6% before quickly recovering to record highs.
Since Trump’s inauguration, tokenized gold has been one of crypto’s top performing sectors, with its market cap up 21%, the report noted. By contrast, stablecoins gained a more modest 8% in market cap, while bitcoin declined 19% and the total crypto market lost 26%.

“Tokenized gold is emerging as one of the key diversification strategies among crypto-native users, alongside bitcoin,” wrote Alexandr Kerya, VP of product management at CEX.IO. “It provides a safer and more stable approach to portfolio management, enabling users to stay within the crypto ecosystem while benefiting from the value and stability of the underlying physical asset.”
“At the same time, the broader RWA narrative helps make gold exposure more accessible and intuitive for users who may not have considered it before,” Kerya added.
Disclaimer: This article, or parts of it, was generated with assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
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analysts
Tariffs, Trade Tensions May Be Positive for Bitcoin (BTC) Adoption in Medium Term: Grayscale
Published
11 hours agoon
April 10, 2025By
admin

Tariffs and trade tensions could ultimately be positive for bitcoin (BTC) adoption in the medium term, asset manager Grayscale said in a research report Wednesday.
Higher tariffs result in stagflation— stagnant economic growth coupled with inflation — which is negative for traditional assets, but positive for scarce commodities such as gold, the report said.
Bitcoin is considered hard money, akin to digital gold, and is viewed as a modern store of value, the report noted.
Cryptocurrencies surged on Wednesday following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on tariffs for countries that haven’t retaliated against the U.S.
“Trade tensions may put pressure on reserve demand for the U.S. Dollar, opening space for competing assets, including other fiat currencies, gold, and bitcoin,” Grayscale said.
Historical precedent suggests that dollar weakness and above-average inflation may persist, and bitcoin is likely to benefit from such a macro backdrop, the asset manager said.
“A rapidly improving market structure, supported by U.S. government policy changes” could help broaden bitcoin’s investor base, the report added.
Read more: Trump Administration Wants Weaker Dollar and That’s Positive for Bitcoin: Bitwise
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Bitcoin
‘Investors Will Buy Bitcoin and Gold’ Amid Yield Spike, ByteTree’s Morris Says
Published
1 day agoon
April 9, 2025By
admin

As of Wednesday morning, the yield on the UK’s 30-year government bond soared to 5.5%—its highest level since 1998—mirroring a broader climb in U.S. sovereign yields and sparking fresh concerns about financial market stability.
Surging global bond yields are exerting significant downward pressure on risk assets. Since the U.S. equity sell-off began last Thursday, the Nasdaq has dropped 10%, while bitcoin (BTC) has fared slightly better, down 8% over the same period.
In the same time the U.K. 30-year bond yield is up 8%, while the U.S. 30-year is up 12%. Charlie Morris, founder of ByteTree, believes investors will start to seek diversification into other assets including bitcoin.
“It appears that the UK has been living beyond its means for too long. It hasn’t balanced its budget since 2001, the gilt market has had enough”, Morris said. “Investors seeking diversification away from financial assets will not only buy gold, but bitcoin too”.
The dramatic spike in yields has revived unsettling memories of the UK’s 2022 pension crisis, when a sudden surge in borrowing costs triggered a near-collapse of the financial system and ultimately cost then-Prime Minister Liz Truss her job.
This latest bond market turmoil is being driven by escalating uncertainty around global trade, stoked by President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff plans. These levies could disrupt global supply chains and increase costs, adding pressure to already jittery markets.
“Alas, in politics you never get what you want by making civil arguments from high principle,” former UK MP Steve Baker told CoinDesk in an exclusive interview. “President Trump said he was using brute economic force—and he is. It’s time to rediscover free trade at home and abroad, fast, before this chaos wrecks our futures.”
The recent yield surge echoes the events of 2022, when a surprise mini-budget announcement on Sept. 23 sent gilt yields soaring, crashed the pound, and exposed deep vulnerabilities in the UK pension system.
Many defined benefit pension schemes had adopted complex liability-driven investment (LDI) strategies, using leverage and derivatives to match long-term liabilities. But as yields spiked, these funds suffered massive mark-to-market losses and faced margin calls, forcing rapid gilt sales into a thin market and creating a destabilizing “fire sale” feedback loop.
At the time, UK pension funds held around 28% of the gilt market. The ensuing chaos, occurring in a modest $1.5 trillion market, was so severe that it required the Bank of England to step in with emergency gilt purchases to halt the downward spiral. A Chicago Fed Letter analyzing the crisis later identified excessive leverage, asset pooling, and the limited depth of the gilt market as key structural weaknesses—particularly in contrast to the much larger $9.9 trillion U.S. Treasury market.
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