A trader who nailed the Bitcoin market top earlier this year believes BTC will witness a period of falling prices in the coming months.

Pseudonymous analyst Bluntz tells his 318,000 followers on the social media platform X that he thinks Bitcoin is already in a bear market that will last about two years.

The trader shares a chart suggesting that he arrived at that time frame by measuring the length of the most recent Bitcoin bull market, which he says lasted from December 2022 to January 2025.

“Time-wise will probably last into 2027 in my opinion, give or take 25%.”

He also predicts that during the period of a sustained downtrend, Bitcoin may lose up to 55% of its current value before hitting a bear market bottom.

When asked about his downside price target for BTC, Bluntz replied,

“$36,000.”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $80,296.

While Bluntz is bearish on Bitcoin, he says one precious metal is about to start a bull run. Looking at the two-week chart of gold versus silver (XAUUSD/XAGUSD), the analyst thinks the pair has printed a major lower high after completing an ABC rally.

“Time to pay attention to silver, in my opinion… Finally.”

Bluntz practices the Elliott Wave theory, which states that a bullish asset tends to witness a five-wave downtrend after concluding an ABC rally. A bearish gold-versus-silver chart suggests that silver is about to outperform gold.

Last week, gold printed a fresh all-time high at $3,167 per ounce.

At time of writing, silver is trading for $30 per ounce.

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Bitcoin (BTC) fell to a four-month low of $74,500 on April 7, and data suggests that the price may not have bottomed yet.

Investors dumped risk assets after US President Donald Trump doubled down on his plan to impose global tariffs over the weekend, triggering a $9.5 trillion wipeout in global equity markets.

Growing calls for a US recession have spooked risk investors while leaving crypto market participants wondering how low can the Bitcoin price go in the near future.

Bitcoin eyes decline toward “Saylor’s average entry“ level

Bitcoin is currently testing a critical technical level—the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA)—which has historically acted as a dividing line between bull and bear phases.

According to market analyst Ted Pillows and numerous other chartists, Bitcoin must reclaim the EMA, currently near $77,500, to avoid a deeper correction.

If BTC fails to close back above it, Pillows warns of a potential decline toward the $69,000–$70,000 range, which aligns with the 2021 cycle highs. A further drop to $67,000, the average entry-level of Strategy’s Michael Saylor, also remains a possibility.

Bitcoin “max pain” target is near $69,000

Bitcoin appeared to have found short-term support at around $74,000, which corresponds to a notable cost-basis cluster where over 50,000 BTC are held.

Glassnode’s UTXO realized price distribution (URPD) heatmap shows this is the first major cost-basis cluster below $80,000. These holders raised their average buy price until March 10, then stopped moving coins—showing confidence, not panic.

Investors hold around 175,000 BTC in the $74,000–$70,000 range, creating a strong buffer zone. The largest cluster sits at $71,600, with 41,000 BTC concentrated there, making it the likely next support if $74,000 breaks.

Related: Black Monday 2.0? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Meanwhile, Glassnode’s Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price bands place the current average STH cost basis at $89,000, with the -1 standard deviation band at $69,000.

This level has acted as a historical “max pain” zone for short-term investors during pullbacks in previous bull cycles, suggesting the $69,000 level is a floor where weak hands capitulate and long-term investors often step in.

A $50,000 Bitcoin price target cannot be ruled out

Historical patterns reveal Bitcoin entering a prolonged bear market after breaking decisively below the 50-week EMA support. In most cases, such corrections have led the price toward the 200-week EMA, as shown in red circular areas below.

If the fractal analysis plays out as intended, Bitcoin’s price target in the event of a 50-week EMA breakdown appears to be around $50,000, aligning with the 200-week EMA’s current positioning.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.