Look, I think it’s only a matter of time before China pulls a complete 180 on its Bitcoin ban. Yes, they outlawed trading and mining back in 2021, but honestly, a lot has changed since then — especially this year. Bitcoin’s momentum globally has been insane.

We’ve seen US President-Elect Donald Trump calling to stockpile Bitcoin; Bitcoin ETFs get approved, Fed Chair Jerome Powell calling Bitcoin “digital gold,” Larry Fink flipping pro-Bitcoin, and even Putin saying nice things about it. With all of this happening, I wouldn’t be shocked if China has already started quietly stacking sats (buying bitcoin).

Here’s why I think that: China doesn’t like to announce what it’s doing beforehand — it’s just not how they operate. Former Binance CEO CZ talked about this recently at the Bitcoin MENA conference in Abu Dhabi, saying that while the US loves to make big public statements about upcoming policies (like Trump announcing Bitcoin plans to court voters), Asian countries prefer to move in silence.

And let’s not forget China doesn’t have elections. They don’t need to win over public opinion like Trump does. If they’re making moves with Bitcoin, they’ll do it quietly — and we’ll find out when they’re ready to make it official.

Now, with Trump’s big push for Bitcoin and crypto, I can’t see China sitting on the sidelines for too long. This is turning into a global race, and if China wants to stay competitive, they can’t afford to miss the Bitcoin train. My gut tells me they’re already planning to unban Bitcoin and crypto — and I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens as early as Q1 next year, especially if Trump takes office.

Another big hint? Hong Kong. China has a long history of using Hong Kong as a sandbox to test things before rolling them out on the mainland. And this year, we’ve seen Hong Kong make major moves — approving Bitcoin and crypto ETFs and greenlighting more crypto exchanges. Let’s be real: this isn’t a coincidence. They are planning to eliminate crypto taxes for institutions. I think China is watching carefully, and these are early steps toward a broader shift.

In my opinion, China has likely been quietly accumulating bitcoin all along. When the time is right, they’ll unban it — and not just to compete with the US, but to lead. Watch this space. I think it’s going to happen much sooner than most people expect.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.