With Bitcoin now making six-figure territory feel normal and higher prices a seeming inevitability, the analysis of key on-chain data provides valuable insights into the underlying health of the market. By understanding these metrics, investors can better anticipate price movements and prepare for potential market peaks or even any upcoming retracements.

Terminal Price

The Terminal Price metric, which incorporates the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) while factoring in Bitcoin’s supply, has historically been a reliable indicator for predicting Bitcoin cycle peaks. Coin Days Destroyed measures the velocity of coins being transferred, considering both the holding duration and the quantity of Bitcoin moved.

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Currently, the terminal price has surpassed $185,000 and is likely to rise toward $200,000 as the cycle progresses. With Bitcoin already breaking $100,000, this suggests we may still have several months of positive price action ahead.

Puell Multiple

The Puell Multiple evaluates daily miner revenue (in USD) relative to its 365-day moving average. After the halving event, miners experienced a sharp drop in revenue, creating a period of consolidation.

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Now, the Puell Multiple has climbed back above 1, signaling a return to profitability for miners. Historically, surpassing this threshold has indicated the later stages of a bull cycle, often marked by exponential price rallies. A similar pattern was observed during all previous bull runs.

MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-Score measures the market value relative to the realized value (average cost basis of Bitcoin holders). Standardized into a Z-Score to account for the asset’s volatility, it’s been highly accurate in identifying cycle peaks and bottoms.

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Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score remains below the overheated red zone with a value of around 3.00, signaling that there’s still room for growth. While diminishing peaks have been a trend in recent cycles, the Z-Score suggests that the market is far from reaching a euphoric top.

Active Address Sentiment

This metric tracks the 28-day percentage change in active network addresses alongside the price change over the same period. When price growth outpaces network activity, it suggests the market may be short-term overbought, as the positive price action may not be sustainable given network utilization.

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Recent data shows a slight cooling after Bitcoin’s rapid climb from $50,000 to $100,000, indicating a healthy consolidation period. This pause is likely setting the stage for sustained long-term growth and does not indicate we should be medium to long-term bearish.

Spent Output Profit Ratio

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures realized profits from Bitcoin transactions. Recent data shows an uptick in profit-taking, potentially indicating we are entering the latter stages of the cycle.

View Live Chart 🔍

One caveat to consider is the growing use of Bitcoin ETFs and derivative products. Investors may be shifting from self-custody to ETFs for ease of use and tax advantages, which could influence SOPR values.

Value Days Destroyed

Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple expands on CDD by weighting larger, long-term holders. When this metric enters the overheated red zone, it often signals major price peaks as the market’s largest and most experienced participants begin cashing out.

View Live Chart 🔍

While Bitcoin’s current VDD levels indicate a slightly overheated market, history suggests it could sustain this range for months before a peak. For example, in 2017, VDD indicated overbought conditions nearly a year before the cycle’s top.

Conclusion

Taken together, these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is entering the latter stages of its bull market. While some indicators point to short-term cooling or slight overextension, most highlight substantial remaining upside throughout 2025. Key resistance levels for this cycle may emerge between $150,000 and $200,000, with metrics like SOPR and VDD providing clearer signals as we approach the peak.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: What’s Happening On-chain: Bitcoin Update

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

With Bitcoin now making six-figure territory feel normal and higher prices a seeming inevitability, the analysis of key on-chain data provides valuable insights into the underlying health of the market. By understanding these metrics, investors can better anticipate price movements and prepare for potential market peaks or even any upcoming retracements.

Terminal Price

The Terminal Price metric, which incorporates the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) while factoring in Bitcoin’s supply, has historically been a reliable indicator for predicting Bitcoin cycle peaks. Coin Days Destroyed measures the velocity of coins being transferred, considering both the holding duration and the quantity of Bitcoin moved.

View Live Chart 🔍

Currently, the terminal price has surpassed $185,000 and is likely to rise toward $200,000 as the cycle progresses. With Bitcoin already breaking $100,000, this suggests we may still have several months of positive price action ahead.

Puell Multiple

The Puell Multiple evaluates daily miner revenue (in USD) relative to its 365-day moving average. After the halving event, miners experienced a sharp drop in revenue, creating a period of consolidation.

View Live Chart 🔍

Now, the Puell Multiple has climbed back above 1, signaling a return to profitability for miners. Historically, surpassing this threshold has indicated the later stages of a bull cycle, often marked by exponential price rallies. A similar pattern was observed during all previous bull runs.

MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-Score measures the market value relative to the realized value (average cost basis of Bitcoin holders). Standardized into a Z-Score to account for the asset’s volatility, it’s been highly accurate in identifying cycle peaks and bottoms.

View Live Chart 🔍

Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score remains below the overheated red zone with a value of around 3.00, signaling that there’s still room for growth. While diminishing peaks have been a trend in recent cycles, the Z-Score suggests that the market is far from reaching a euphoric top.

Active Address Sentiment

This metric tracks the 28-day percentage change in active network addresses alongside the price change over the same period. When price growth outpaces network activity, it suggests the market may be short-term overbought, as the positive price action may not be sustainable given network utilization.

View Live Chart 🔍

Recent data shows a slight cooling after Bitcoin’s rapid climb from $50,000 to $100,000, indicating a healthy consolidation period. This pause is likely setting the stage for sustained long-term growth and does not indicate we should be medium to long-term bearish.

Spent Output Profit Ratio

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures realized profits from Bitcoin transactions. Recent data shows an uptick in profit-taking, potentially indicating we are entering the latter stages of the cycle.

View Live Chart 🔍

One caveat to consider is the growing use of Bitcoin ETFs and derivative products. Investors may be shifting from self-custody to ETFs for ease of use and tax advantages, which could influence SOPR values.

Value Days Destroyed

Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple expands on CDD by weighting larger, long-term holders. When this metric enters the overheated red zone, it often signals major price peaks as the market’s largest and most experienced participants begin cashing out.

View Live Chart 🔍

While Bitcoin’s current VDD levels indicate a slightly overheated market, history suggests it could sustain this range for months before a peak. For example, in 2017, VDD indicated overbought conditions nearly a year before the cycle’s top.

Conclusion

Taken together, these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is entering the latter stages of its bull market. While some indicators point to short-term cooling or slight overextension, most highlight substantial remaining upside throughout 2025. Key resistance levels for this cycle may emerge between $150,000 and $200,000, with metrics like SOPR and VDD providing clearer signals as we approach the peak.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: What’s Happening On-chain: Bitcoin Update

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

The Bitcoin bull market is heating up, and investors are eagerly searching for data-driven insights into when the next Bitcoin price peak could occur and how high Bitcoin may climb. In a recent analysis video published by Bitcoin Magazine Pro, lead analyst Matt Crosby meticulously crunched the numbers to provide a mathematically backed forecast for Bitcoin’s next bull cycle peak.

By combining historical patterns, moving averages, and diminishing returns, Crosby’s research highlights August 24, 2025, as a critical date—projecting a price range of $256,000 to $310,000 for Bitcoin.

Watch the Full Analysis

To explore the detailed mathematical breakdown and see how Matt Crosby arrives at these projections, watch the full video analysis here.

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator: A Historical Compass

Crosby begins his analysis with the Pi Cycle Top Indicator, a tool famed for its accuracy in predicting Bitcoin’s price peaks within just a few days during previous bull markets. The indicator uses two moving averages:

• The 111-day moving average (111DMA).
• The 350-day moving average (350DMA) multiplied by two.

The “Pi” connection arises from the mathematical ratio between these numbers, approximating 3.142. Historically, when the 111DMA crosses above the doubled 350DMA, Bitcoin has hit its market cycle top:

• 2017: Predicted the peak within 1 day.
• 2021: Called the exact day of the price cycle peak.

Turning Data Into Predictions

To project the next peak, Crosby introduces the Pi Cycle Oscillator, which quantifies how close the two moving averages are to crossing. Using Bitcoin Magazine Pro’s raw data API, Crosby calculated:

1. The rate of change for the moving averages.
2. Current trends starting from November 16, 2023, when the oscillator began a new upward trajectory.

Assuming the current trend holds, the two averages are set to cross on August 24, 2025, marking the likely bull cycle peak date.

What About the Price?

To estimate Bitcoin’s price at this projected peak, Crosby examines historical patterns of diminishing returns—a phenomenon where Bitcoin’s price peaks are proportionally smaller with each cycle:

• In 2013, Bitcoin’s price was 440% above the moving averages.
• In 2017, it dropped to 299% above.
• In 2021, it shrank further to 32% above.

By extrapolating this trend, Crosby provides a range of potential price outcomes:

• If returns diminish to 28% above the moving averages (consistent with prior cycles), Bitcoin could peak at $310,000.
• If returns continue to shrink at a faster rate, the peak could land closer to $256,700.

Why This Matters for Investors

Crosby emphasizes that no analysis is perfect, and trends evolve as new market dynamics emerge. Institutional adoption, macroeconomic factors, and unexpected events could all reshape this trajectory. However, his analysis offers a valuable data-driven roadmap for investors navigating the current bull market.

As the next cycle unfolds, these predictions will become increasingly precise—providing opportunities for investors to optimize their strategies.

Key Takeaways:

• Date Prediction: August 24, 2025.
• Peak Price Range: Between $256,000 and $310,000.
• Indicator: Pi Cycle Top and Bottom Oscillator, powered by Bitcoin Magazine Pro data.

For access to live data, powerful indicators, and more exclusive content, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.