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Gold-Backed Crypto Set to Benefit as Wall Street Raises Price Estimates to Upto $3,000 Amid Macro Risks

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Major financial institutions have been raising their gold price forecasts as the precious metal’s price benefits from growing trade war fears and central banks’ accumulations.

This week, strategists at both Citi and UBS issued increased gold price forecasts, anticipating the precious metal’s bull run will continue as markets are pressured by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties.

Gold-backed cryptocurrencies have been benefiting from this trend, with tokens like PAXG and XAUT seeing performance in line with that of the precious metal. These tokens, backed by physical gold stored in vaults, have been outperforming the wider cryptocurrency market amid the uncertainty.

Citi has adjusted its short-term gold price target to $3,000 per ounce and increased its average forecast for the year to $2,900, up from $2,800, Investing.com reports. Behind its hike were not only the factors cited above but also global growth concerns expected to drive demand for the precious metal.

Meanwhile, UBS hiked its 12-month gold price target to $3,000 per ounce, up from $2,850. The precious metal has already breached the latter, currently trading at $2,860 after rising about 9% year-to-date.

UBS strategists led by Mark Haefele said in a note that gold’s “enduring appeal as a store of value and hedge against uncertainty has again proven itself.” Meanwhile, Citi’s note points to “trade wars and geopolitical tensions reinforcing the reserve diversification/de-dollarization trend and supporting emerging market (EM) official sector gold demand.”
Read more: Gold-Backed Cryptocurrencies Surge as Precious Metal Hits Record Amid Trade War Worry





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Bitcoin

Why Is the Crypto Market Down Today? Bitcoin Drops to $82K as Traders Flee Risk Assets Amid Macro Worries

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Cryptocurrency prices have experienced a sharp decline over the last few hours, with bitcoin (BTC) now being down around 3% over the last 24 hours, while major altcoins including XRP, BNB, and SOL are down between 4% and 5% over the same period.

The broader cryptocurrency market, represented by the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), lost around 3.3% of its value over the period. The sharp drop brings BTC’s performance down 1.7% for the week, while CD20 is down nearly 5%.

Over the last 24 hours, over $300 million worth of long positions were liquidated on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges, while $38.8 million worth of shorts were liquidated on these platforms, according to CoinGlass data.

The drop appears to be part of a wider derisking move among traders, as investors are anticipating the impact of President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs that are set to come into effect on April 2. The move heightened after core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data came in hotter than expected on Friday.

Just this week, consumer confidence data dipped further than expected, while the index for future expectations came in at a 12-year low, and well below levels associated with an incoming recession.

This confluence of factors has seen investors reduce their exposure to risk assets and triggered a flight to safety. CoinDesk Data’s latest stablecoin report shows that gold-backed cryptocurrencies have benefitted from the risk-off move, as their market capitalization climbed above $1.4 billion in March.

Gold-backed cryptocurrencies are, in fact, countering the market’s bearish trend. While the CD20 is down over 3% in the last 24-hour period, tokens including PAXG and XAUT are up 0.7% to over $3,100. These tokens are up more than 18% year-to-date, while BTC is down 12.5% and the CD20 index 28% so far this year.





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Gold

Gold-Backed Tokens Outperform as ‘Bond King’ Gundlach Sees Precious Metal Hit $4,000

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Gold has been on a strong run, surpassing $3,000 for the first time last week, and now there are calls for even more upside for the precious metal prices.

Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital and colloquially known as the “Bond King” for his expertise in fixed-income markets, believes the rally is far from over and could see the precious metal top $4,000.

Speaking during a macroeconomic outlook presentation titled “Not in My Neighborhood,” Gundlach highlighted gold’s sustained price momentum alongside other commodities. Cryptocurrencies backed by the precious metal, including PAXG and XAUT, have been benefiting from its historic price rise.

“I think gold will make it to $4,000. I’m not sure that’ll happen this year, but I feel like that’s the measured move anticipated by the long consolidation at around $1,800 on gold,” Gundlach said.

Gold-backed cryptocurrencies have been outperforming the wider cryptocurrency market so far this year. While PAXG and XAUT are up roughly 14% year-to-date, bitcoin dropped 11.4% over the same period, and the broader CoinDesk20 Index retreated by over 25% in the same period. Gold ETFs last week have surpassed bitcoin ETFs in assets under management.

His prediction is rooted in shifting central bank strategies. Global central banks have been increasing their gold reserves, reversing a period in which their holdings were dwindling. The total amount of gold held globally, according to IMF data Gundlach presented, has climbed from a low of around 34 billion Special Drawing Rights (SDR) in 2010 to 40.9 billion SDR, reaching levels last seen between 1975 and 1980.

Special Drawing Rights are an international reserve asset the IMF created back in 1969, defined through a basket of currencies.





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Bitcoin ETF

Gold ETFs Inflow Takes Over BTC ETFs Amid Historic Rally

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Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have overtaken bitcoin ETFs in assets under management as investors shift toward the traditional safe-haven asset as BTC price tumbled more than 19% over the past three months, while the precious metal climbed 12.5%.

Bitcoin ETFs, which saw significant inflows following their U.S. launch in January last year, have experienced major outflows, losing about $3.8 billion since Feb. 24 of this year, according to Farside Investors data. Meanwhile, gold ETFs recorded their highest monthly inflows since March 2022 last month, according to the World Gold Council.

Gold ETF flows and gold's price. (World Gold Council)

These flows have meant that gold ETFs have now “reclaimed the asset crown over bitcoin ETFs,” as Bloomberg Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said on social media.

Spot bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S. first surpassed gold ETFs in assets under management in December 2024 as the cryptocurrency market surged after Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential elections.

Meanwhile, gold has been seeing a significant run. This Friday, it exceeded the $3,000 per ounce mark for the first time ever, with gold futures for April delivery breaking through the same level earlier in the week.

Market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty have been helping the price of the precious metal rise as demand for a safe haven continues to grow.
Read more: Gold’s Historic Rally Leaves Bitcoin Behind, But the Trend May Reverse





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