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Fed Minutes Confirm QT Is Ending

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Este artículo también está disponible en español.

On Tuesday, February 19, the Federal Reserve released their meeting minutes, revealing that central bankers are considering an end—or at least a significant slowdown—to quantitative tightening (QT). The document states: “Several participants suggest halting or slowing balance sheet reduction pending debt ceiling resolution.”

These remarks have fueled optimism among Bitcoin experts who view the potential end of QT as a bullish signal. Many see it as a precursor to greater liquidity entering financial markets, a condition that has historically benefited risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

The newly published minutes confirm that certain Fed officials are worried about the interaction between ongoing balance sheet reduction and the looming debt ceiling debate. The possibility of large-scale US Treasury issuance once the debt ceiling is resolved appears to be a key driver behind calls to pause or halt QT.

No explicit shift to quantitative easing (QE) was announced, but the acknowledgment that balance sheet reduction might be curtailed has been enough to stoke speculation in digital asset circles. The minutes must be unanimously approved by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), further suggesting an intentional message from policymakers.

Implications For Bitcoin

Renowned market commentator and host of the On the Margin podcast, Felix Jauvin, took to X to emphasize the significance of the Fed’s signaling, writing: “There it is, QT coming to an end this spring. Reminder that every FOMC member has to unanimously approve these minutes, this is intentional.”

While Jauvin underscores the unanimity behind these minutes, he stops short of predicting an immediate shift toward QE. Instead, he points to a specific chain of events that the Fed seems to be navigating.

The Fed has already reduced the pace of balance sheet runoff by half compared to its initial rate. Jauvin also notes that as the reverse repo facility (RRP) nears zero and the Fed reaches its target reserve level of roughly 3% of GDP, an end to QT becomes more likely.

Moreover, concerns loom over the Treasury General Account (TGA) potentially being rebuilt once the debt ceiling is resolved, leading to sizable bill issuance which could lead to interim disruptions in funding markets.

Therefore, rather than pivot to QE, Jauvin believes the Fed could pursue a temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption, allowing commercial banks to absorb additional government debt. “They are very very very very far from any sort of formal QE. Instead, it’s more likely they pursue an SLR exemption allowing commercial banks to be the marginal buyer of debt,” Jauvin predicts.

A formal return to QE, Jauvin concludes, would only materialize if financial and economic conditions deteriorate significantly, including a major collapse in risk assets and a drop in rates to near zero. In response to an X user asking if ending QT is bullish without necessarily indicating an immediate move to QE, Jauvin offered a succinct explanation:

“Therefore think for the current liquidity backdrop it is marginally improving in that we will have the possible sequence of TGA drawdown into QT ending into potentially SLR exemption, and that’ll be it for now. QE shouldn’t even be in the current vocabulary of discourse as it stands.”

Renowned crypto analyst Pentoshi agrees, highlighting a previously published forecast: “QT coming to an end… My guess, QT ends by start of Q3. With all that’s taking place currently Trump will likely end up forcing it. Was correct on QT guess in Nov 21. Let’s see.”

He cited how the conclusion of quantitative easing in late 2021 coincided with the end of the crypto bull run. Now, market watchers are keenly observing whether the inverse—a potential termination of QT—could spark renewed momentum for Bitcoin and other digital assets.

At press time, BTC traded at $97,208.

Bitcoin price
BTC price faces key resistance, 4-hour chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com



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Bitcoin

Michael Saylor Teases New Bitcoin Buy After Strategy’s $7.69 Billion Q1 BTC Buying Spree

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Bitcoin (BTC) proponent Michael Saylor has hinted the company he co-founded, Strategy (MSTR), may be set to announce an additional BTC purchase this week shortly after revealing it expects a net loss in the first quarter of the year over unrealized losses on its massive BTC holdings.

The company has added 80,785 BTC to its balance sheet since the beginning of the year after raising a total of $7.69 billion during the first quarter, with over half of that coming from common stock sales. Most, if not all, of those funds were used to buy bitcoin.

On Sunday, Saylor posted a BTC holdings tracker to X, a move that typically precedes a purchase announcement, commenting there are “no tariffs on orange dots.” The comment implies the company’s BTC purchases were unaffected by the reciprocal tariffs Donald Trump introduced earlier this month and the ensuing U.S.-China trade war.

The company paused its buying during the week ending April 6. Its crypto stash is currently worth roughly $44.59 billion, and was acquired for $35.63 billion.

Strategy currently holds 528,185 BTC bought at an average price of $67,458 according to Bitcointreasuries data equivalent to 2.515% of the cryptocurrency’s total supply.





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ALCH

Crypto Strategist Sees Solana-Based Memecoin Surging Higher, Says One AI Altcoin Flashing Strong Chart

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A closely followed crypto analyst believes one meme token operating on Solana (SOL) is in the early stages of a market recovery.

Pseudonymous analyst Altcoin Sherpa tells his 243,800 followers on the social media platform X that he’s bullish on the memecoin Bonk (BONK).

The trader shares a chart suggesting that BONK will face resistance at the $0.000012 level before printing a bullish higher low setup and rallying to his target above $0.0000145.

“BONK is looking strong in the short term, and should go higher. Should be a pullback around the 200 EMA (exponential moving average) on the four-hour chart but still, I think this has pulled back enough to where any buying down here is probably reasonable.”

Image
Source: Altcoin Sherpa/X

At time of writing, BONK is worth $0.00001376.

Turning to the low-cap altcoin Alchemist AI (ALCH), the analyst says the coin appears to be in an uptrend and that he’s waiting for potential dips to accumulate the asset.

ALCH is an artificial intelligence (AI)-based crypto project that allows users with no coding skills to generate codes by providing natural language descriptions.

Says Altcoin Sherpa,

“ALCH still seems like a really strong chart, don’t see it being mentioned much. I think it’s basically taken the place of ARC; a super volatile AI coin that moves 20% a day. Not in it but traded it a lot before; will look to buy dips.”

Image
Source: Altcoin Sherpa/X

At time of writing, ALCH is the 431st-largest crypto asset by market cap, trading at $0.109.

Looking at Bitcoin, Altcoin Sherpa thinks that BTC will continue to consolidate within a large trading range in the short to mid-term.

“Expecting there is some sort of chop between $70,000-$90,000 over the next several weeks for BTC. Relative bottom probably in, but still some more consolidation to come.”

Image
Source: Altcoin Sherpa/X

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $85,366.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Michael Saylor Hints At Another MicroStrategy Bitcoin Purchase, BTC Price To Rally?

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MicroStrategy is lacing up for a potential Bitcoin purchase after Michael Saylor flashed the tell-tale buy signal. The incoming purchase will be the company’s first in Q2 after pausing Bitcoin purchases at the start of April in an eyebrow-raising move.

Michael Saylor Flashes Bitcoin Buy Signal

MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor has dropped clues that the software company will continue its Bitcoin accumulation spree. In an X post, Saylor shared MicroStrategy’s portfolio tracker revealing the company’s Bitcoin holdings and valuations.

Michael Saylor’s previous posts sharing Microstrategy’s portfolio tracker over the weekend have resulted in purchases at the start of the week. Investors are lapping up Saylor’s portfolio tracker post and the accompanying caption as cues for a BTC purchase on Monday.

“No tariffs on Orange Dots,” said Saylor, taking a jibe at brewing tariff wars between the US and China.

MicroStrategy had previously halted its Bitcoin purchase spree at the start of April leading to a slump in MSTR price. At the time, there was significant chatter that MicroStrategy may be forced to offload its Bitcoin holdings to cover obligations following a dip in prices.

Per the portfolio tracker, MicroStrategy holds 528,185 BTC on its balance sheet valued at $44.7 billion. Michael Saylor hinting at a potential Bitcoin purchase follows a small dip in prices with BTC holding the $83K mark.

Will Bitcoin Price Rally?

Saylor’s hint at buying Bitcoin has triggered a small bump in prices as the top cryptocurrency surpassed $83K. However, an actual purchase will trigger a significant price action for BTC in line with previous accumulations.

MicroStrategy’s last Bitcoin purchase of 22,048 BTC jolted the markets in line with investors’ expectations. However, there are fears that macroeconomic events like the US-China tariff war may affect a potential BTC rally following MicroStrategy’s incoming purchase.

Bitcoin price has rebounded after a previous bloodbath, sparking fresh optimism in the markets. Crypto Joao Wedson predicts that Bitcoin is not out of the woods yet and a grim drop to $65K is still a possibility for the top cryptocurrency.

“We’re not ruling out the possibility of the price dipping below $65K, as several metrics point to that region as strong support – such as the True Market Mean Price and Alpha Price, both sitting exactly around $64,700,” said Wedson.

Crypto analyst Doctor Profit warns that a BTC price drop to these levels may force MicroStrategy to sell MSTR to avoid liquidation.

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Aliyu Pokima

Aliyu Pokima is a seasoned cryptocurrency and emerging technologies journalist with a knack for covering needle-moving stories in the space. Aliyu delivers breaking news stories, regulatory updates, and insightful analysis with depth and precision. When he’s not poring over charts or following leads, Aliyu enjoys playing the bass guitar, lifting weights and running marathons.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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