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Solana CME Futures Fall Short of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum’s ETH Debut, But There’s a Catch

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If you blinked you may have missed it: Solana’s SOL futures started trading on Monday on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the go-to marketplace for U.S. institutions, and unlike previous, historic CME debuts for bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH), it received little fanfare.

The product booked $12.3 million in notional daily volume on day one and closed with $7.8 million in open interest, well falling short of similar debuts of BTC and ETH products, according to K33 Research data. For context, BTC futures launched in December 2017 with $102.7 million first-day volume and $20.9 million in open interest, while ETH futures debuted in February 2021 with $31 million in volume and $20 million in open interest, per K33.

Already under pressure by the implosion of speculative memecoin activity, bearish crypto action and even a botched commercial, SOL tumbled roughly 10% from its weekend high, underperforming bitcoin’s (BTC) and ether’s (ETH) 4.5% and 3.8% declines, respectively.

While SOL’s debut may seem lackluster in absolute terms, it is more in balance with BTC’s and ETH’s first-day figures when adjusted to market value, K33 analysts Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman noted. Solana’s market capitalization stood at around $65 billion on Monday, a fraction of ETH’s $200 billion and BTC’s $318 billion at CME launch.

First-day volume and open interest for SOL, BTC and ETH, adjusted to market capitalization. (K33 Research)

First-day volume and open interest for SOL, BTC and ETH, adjusted to market capitalization. (K33 Research)

Solana’s CME launch also had unfavorable timing, as market conditions play a crucial role in futures activity, K33 added.

Bitcoin’s CME futures arrived at the peak of the 2017 bull market as speculative fervor was pushing to the extremes, and ETH’s debut coincided with the early stages of the 2021 altcoin rally and Tesla’s BTC purchase announcement, fueling institutional participation. In contrast, SOL futures started trading as crypto markets turned bearish, without any hype or major catalyst driving immediate demand for the product, according to the K33.”It would appear that institutional demand for altcoins may be shallow, although we note that SOL’s launch has come in a comparatively risk-off environment,” K33 analysts said.

Read more: Multicoin’s Samani Explains Why SOL ETF Could Trounce ETH’s

Derivatives trader Josh Lim, founder of Arbelos Markets that was recently acquired by prime broker FalconX, said that the CME product opens up new ways for institutions to manage their exposure to Solana, regardless of the first-day demand. FalconX executed the first SOL futures block trade on CME on Monday with financial services firm StoneX.

“There’s enthusiasm for this new CME product launch,” Lim said in a Telegram message. Liquid funds will be able to manage around their SOL holdings, including those that bought locked tokens in the FTX liquidation process, he said. Additionally, exchange-traded fund issuers with plans to introduce SOL products could start with CME futures-based ETFs.

“People are missing the big picture on the new CME products,” Lim said. “It’s going to change the access that hedge funds have into altcoins.”





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Bitcoin CME Gap Close About To Happen With Push Toward $83k

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Bitcoin (BTC) is steadily approaching the highly anticipated Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) gap close, with price action aligning with analyst’s expectations of a move toward $83,000. As Bitcoin corrects from recent highs, a crypto analyst expects a rebound to come next. However, if key support fails, the possibility of further downside remains. 

Bitcoin To Drop To CME Gap Close

Bitcoin has been on a rollercoaster this year, skyrocketing to new ATHs and experiencing major price breakdowns that pushed it to new lows. Recently the cryptocurrency saw a surge toward $89,000 but faced a rejection. Now the top crypto is pulling back again, with crypto analyst Astronomer on X (formerly Twitter) pinpointing the $83,000 – $84,000 low range as its next critical support level. 

This crucial support zone in the price chart aligns with the CME gap close, a common phenomenon in the BTC Futures market. BTC revisits price gaps left when the CME price closes over the weekend and opens on Sundays.  

Astronomer has outlined his long-term trading plan for Bitcoin, expecting the cryptocurrency to consolidate around the support level before bouncing. He believes that the CME gap close is a significant technical development that could determine Bitcoin’s price movements

BTC is now trading at $82,575. Chart: TradingView

Supporting the expectations of a short-term pullback, historically, a bearish close on Friday often leads to red Mondays or Tuesdays for Bitcoin. Moreover, the analyst highlights that the market is still in the pre-New York Open (NYO) phase, leaving room for an intraday reversal. 

However, he anticipates a late-night drop during the NYO trading session due to the lack of liquidations and untested support levels. He also mentions that combined with these factors, Bitcoin’s recent pullback from $89,000 is a strong indication that its price may not be bullish locally. 

Based on his Bitcoin price chart, Astronomer considers the $81,400 – $82,400 range the worst-case support zone. Bitcoin is expected to revisit this target zone before any attempt at a potential reversal. 

Can Bitcoin Rebound? Take Profit Levels To Watch 

While Bitcoin’s short-term price action appears bearish, its macro trend remains somewhat stable, according to Astronomer’s analysis. The analyst has marked a “long entry” zone in the chart, suggesting that the $83,000 – $84,000 zone was a potential buying opportunity if Bitcoin finds support there. 

The analyst predicts that if Bitcoin can successfully hold the CME gap close, a bounce toward the weekly open price at $86,000 could be its first step toward a much-anticipated recovery. Beyond this, the analyst has pinpointed key take profit levels marked from TP1 – TP4 on the price chart. These levels suggest that Bitcoin could surge higher to reach a target of $87,000 – $88,000. 

However, a break below the worst-case support zone could trigger a bearish shift in sentiment, potentially leading to a deeper price correction for Bitcoin. 

Featured image from Gemini Imagen, chart from TradingView



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