A prominent crypto pundit has outlined a compelling case for the Bitcoin price outlook, predicting a surge to a target as high as $260,000 this bull cycle. However, a critical invalidation level stands in the way of this bullish scenario, threatening Bitcoin’s projected rally if breached. 

On March 26, Gert van Lagen, a well-known crypto analyst on the X social media platform, predicted that the Bitcoin price could hit a bullish target between $200,000 and $300,000. The analyst’s chart suggests that Bitcoin’s price action in the past few years has closely followed a classic market cycle structure, moving through the Accumulation, Redistribution, Re-accumulation, and Distribution phases. 

Bitcoin Price Eyes New ATH Above $260,000

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After consolidating for seven months in mid-2023 – early 2024, Bitcoin formed a range, allowing the market to absorb supply before another price breakout. Notably, this trend continued in 2025, with BTC breaking out of a seven-month re-accumulation phase.

Based on the trajectory of Lagen’s price chart, Bitcoin’s next leg up is a sharp rise to $240,000, followed by a brief correction before rallying to a price peak between $290,000 and $300,000. After hitting this ATH, the analyst predicts that Bitcoin will decline and undergo a period of choppy trading, experiencing price fluctuations between $220,000 and $260,000. 

Interestingly, Bitcoin’s projected rise to an ATH and the following sideways trading are expected to occur during its distribution phase, which is typically characterized by increased sell-offs and market volatility. Once BTC experiences a final surge to $260,000, Lagen predicts a price crash toward $148,000 – $136,000, marking the possible end of the bull rally and the start of the bear market. 

Key Invalidation Level Threatening BTC’s Rally

Lagen’s optimistic price forecast for Bitcoin is being threatened by a key invalidation level, which could halt the cryptocurrency’s potential surge to $200,000 – $300,000. Although Bitcoin’s bullish structure remains intact, the analyst warns that a weekly close below the 40-week LSMA would invalidate its breakout. 

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As of writing, the Bitcoin price is consolidating above this key invalidation level at $73,900. As long as it holds above this level, Lagen believes that its bullish trajectory will be sustained. However, a drop below $73,900, which already represents a 15% decline from BTC’s current market price, could postpone the projected surge or cancel it altogether.

Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s price rose 2.6% on Sunday, March 23, crossing the $86,000 mark after a three-day consolidation around $84,000. With growing market optimism following the recent Fed rate pause, speculative BTC traders deployed increased leverage over the weekend. Will BTC advance above $90,000, or will it reverse to $80,000 in the week ahead?

Bitcoin (BTC) Retakes $85,500 After Three-Day Consolidation

After a prolonged consolidation phase, Bitcoin (BTC) made a major recovery bounce on Sunday. Following Trump’s appearance at Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit, many short-term traders opted to take profits on their BTC holdings.

Despite the decline, Bitcoin continues to find buyers, as the recent U.S. Fed rate pause announced on Wednesday prompted macro-sensitive capital to flow toward risky assets.

Bullish tailwinds from the Fed rate pause counteracted the downward pressure from profit-taking, leading to a three-day stalemate at the $84,000 level since Thursday.

However, as sell-side pressure subsided, BTC price recorded a major breakout above $86,000 on Sunday, March 23. The chart above shows how BTC rose 2.6%, hitting a daily peak of $85,600.

BTC Options Volume nears $800M as Whales Return After Fed Rate Pause

Bitcoin price demonstrated remarkable resilience consolidating around $84,000 over the past three days, as macro-sensitive institutional investors reassess their stance on U.S. economic policies.

Earlier this month, fears of inflationary pressure from Trump’s proposed tariffs triggered a cautious retreat from risk assets, including Bitcoin. However, with recent CPI and PPI reports showing inflation cooling and the Federal Reserve opting to pause rate hikes, large investors appear to be re-entering the market.

This shift in sentiment is reflected in broader financial markets. The S&P 500 surged by 32 points following the Fed rate pause, signalling renewed risk appetite. As Bitcoin mirrors this trend, it has seen a sharp uptick in speculative trading activity from large investors.

Validating this stance, Coinglass derivatives market data shows BTC’s options trading volume skyrocketed 24% in the last 24 hours, pushing total volume above $793 million.

What Does 24% Options Trading Surge Mean for Bitcoin Price Action This Week?

Options trading is a derivatives market strategy that allows traders to bet on the future price movements of an asset without directly purchasing it. This technique is particularly popular among institutional investors and whales because leverage enables traders to control large positions with relatively small capital, amplifying returns, especially during periods of market volatility.

Given that options trading volume surged 24% over the last day, it suggests that whales and institutional investors are taking bullish positions on BTC’s near-term price movements.

Why is BTC Options Volume Rising?

The renewed interest in BTC options trading aligns with key macroeconomic narratives:

• Fed Rate Pause Fuels Risk Appetite – With the Fed pausing rate hikes, liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin become more attractive.
• S&P 500 Rally Indicates Broader Market Confidence – TradFi investors reallocating capital to stocks may also be expanding exposure to BTC.
• Altcoin Season Rotation – With BTC holding steady above $85,000, traders are betting on volatility to capture short-term gains.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Data Supports Bullish Outlook, But $90K Flip Unlikely

Beyond options trading, other key metrics reinforce a positive BTC outlook for the week ahead:

• Open Interest Rose 3.88% to $54.04B – A sign that new capital is entering the derivatives market.
• Long/Short Ratio at 1.28 on OKX & 1.2217 on Binance – Indicates more traders are placing long bets.
• Liquidations Favor Shorts – Over the last 12 hours, $14.2M in short positions were wiped out, compared to just $2.82M in longs.

With Bitcoin showing strong demand above $86,000 and institutional investors actively positioning through options, a bullish breakout toward $90,000 remains a distinct possibility. However, signals on the daily Bitcoin price forecast charts below suggest the rally could face significant resistance below the $90,000 mark.

Despite these bullish signals, the technical chart presents a nuanced picture. While Bitcoin has reclaimed $85,600, the looming death cross—where the 50-day moving average trends below the 200-day moving average—remains a cause for concern. This bearish formation suggests that unless BTC can decisively break above $87,200, a retracement toward the $80,000 region remains plausible.

Bulls must clear this key resistance zone to sustain momentum toward $90,000. If BTC fails to establish support above $87,200, bears could regain control, triggering a potential pullback.

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ibrahim

Crypto analyst covering derivatives markets, macro trends, technical analysis, and DeFi. His works feature in-depth market insights, price forecasts, and institutional-grade research on digital assets.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.