According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post, while Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a steady rise in price from November 2024 to February 2025, sentiment in the cryptocurrency’s futures market has not shown a corresponding uptick.

Bitcoin Futures Sentiment Index Signals Caution

Bitcoin’s price surged from approximately $74,000 in November 2024 to a peak of $101,000 by early February 2025. However, following US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, risk-on assets – including BTC -have experienced a significant pullback.

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After hitting a potential local bottom of $74,508 earlier this month on April 6, the apex cryptocurrency has recovered some of its recent losses. The top digital asset is trading in the mid $80,000 range at the time of writing.

Despite this recovery, BTC’s futures sentiment has continued to decline since February. Even as the price holds near local highs, sentiment in the futures market has notably cooled.

CryptoQuant contributor abramchart highlighted this divergence, noting that it could indicate increasing caution or profit-taking behavior despite the ongoing bullish trend. The analyst commented:

This indicates a cooling interest or increased fear in the futures market, possibly due to macroeconomic uncertainty, regulatory concerns, or expected corrections.

A look at the BTC futures sentiment index shows a resistance zone around 0.8 and a support level near 0.2. The index is currently hovering around 0.4, pointing to a predominantly bearish sentiment across futures markets.

Similarly, Bitcoin’s average price has steadily declined from its early 2025 highs. It is now ranging between $70,000 and $80,000, signalling possible market indecision amid heightened tariff tensions.

According to abramchart, if futures sentiment remains low, BTC could face extended price consolidation or even downward pressure in the near term. However, any emerging bullish catalyst could quickly shift the sentiment and renew upward momentum.

Is BTC Close To A Momentum Shift?

Some analysts believe Bitcoin may be nearing a breakout. After consolidating in the mid-$80,000s for several weeks, on-chain metrics suggest BTC may be undervalued at current levels. Indicators such as BTC exchange reserves and the Stablecoin Supply Ratio support this view.

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In addition, momentum indicators like Bitcoin’s weekly Relative Strength Index have begun to break out of a long-standing downward trendline – raising hopes for a potential bullish rally back toward $100,000.

However, several risks still remain. The recent appearance of a ‘death cross’ on BTC’s price chart – combined with persistent macroeconomic concerns related to trade tariffs – could still weigh heavily on market sentiment. At press time, BTC trades at $83,917, down 1.8% over the past 24 hours.

Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

A widely followed crypto analyst says one Solana (SOL) competitor may be gearing up for a breakout.

In a new thread, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe tells his 783,000 followers on the social media platform X that Sei (SEI) may increase more than 100% its current value if it breaks through a key resistance level.

“SEI starts to show momentum. The Bitcoin pair has a strong bullish divergence on the higher timeframes and the USD pair faces a crucial resistance. Breaking through $0.20 opens up a continuation towards $0.30-$0.35.”

SEI is trading for $0.17 at time of writing, down 2.4% in the last 24 hours.

Next up, the analyst says that Bitcoin (BTC) is in a consolidation phase that may lead to an explosive move to the upside.

“Bitcoin is stuck in the final range. Another test of $87,000 and we’ll likely break upwards to the rally of a new all-time high.”

Bitcoin is trading for $83,800 at time of writing, flat on the day.

Lastly, the analyst says that Ethereum (ETH) may be kicking off an uptrend if the price of gold peaks, based on ETH’s historic inverse correlation with the precious metal.

“A good start of the week, as ETH is +4% against Bitcoin. The ultimate question whether it will sustain or not, last months it has been giving back the returns in the days after. What to monitor? Gold peaking or not. If that’s the case, then we’ll see more strength on ETH.”

The analyst also says that ETH’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is flashing bullish, having entered oversold territory.

The RSI is a momentum oscillator used to determine whether an asset is oversold or overbought. The RSI’s values range from zero to 100. A level between 70 and 100 indicates that an asset is overbought. The 0 to 30 level range indicates that an asset is oversold.

“It’s been a bear market for 1,225 days for ETH, as, in this period, gold did a 2x. The lowest RSI on the weekly candle for ETH as well.”

ETH is trading for $1,589 at time of writing, down 2% in the last 24 hours.

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Bitcoin’s price trajectory is once again capturing headlines, and this time the catalyst appears to be global liquidity trends reshaping investor sentiment. In a recent comprehensive breakdown, Matt Crosby, Lead Analyst at Bitcoin Magazine Pro, presents compelling evidence tying the digital asset’s renewed bullish momentum to the expanding global M2 money supply. His insights not only illuminate the future of Bitcoin price but also anchor its macroeconomic relevance in a broader financial context.

Bitcoin Price and Global Liquidity: A High-Impact Correlation

Crosby highlights a remarkable and consistent correlation—often exceeding 84%—between Bitcoin price and global M2 liquidity levels. As liquidity increases across the global economy, Bitcoin price typically responds with upward movement, although with a noticeable delay. Historical data supports the observation of a 56–60 day lag between monetary expansion and Bitcoin price increases.

This insight has recently proven accurate, as Bitcoin price rebounded from lows of $75,000 to above $85,000. This trend closely aligns with the forecasted recovery that Crosby and his team had outlined based on macro indicators, validating the strength and reliability of the correlation driving Bitcoin price upward.

Why the 2-Month Delay Impacts Bitcoin Price

The two-month delay in market response is a critical observation for understanding Bitcoin price movements. Crosby emphasizes that monetary policy and liquidity injections do not immediately affect speculative assets like BTC. Instead, there is an incubation period, typically around two months, during which liquidity filters through financial systems and begins to influence Bitcoin price.

Crosby has optimized this correlation through various backtests, adjusting timeframes and offsets. Their findings indicate that a 60-day delay yields the most predictive accuracy across both short-term (1-year) and extended (4-year) historical Bitcoin price action. This lag provides a strategic advantage to investors who monitor macro trends to anticipate Bitcoin price surges.

S&P 500 and Its Influence on Bitcoin Price Trends

Adding further credibility to the thesis, Crosby extends his analysis to traditional equity markets. The S&P 500 exhibits an even stronger all-time correlation of approximately 92% with global liquidity. This correlation strengthens the argument that monetary expansion is a significant driver not just for Bitcoin price, but also for broader risk-on asset classes.

By comparing liquidity trends with multiple indices, Crosby demonstrates that Bitcoin price is not an anomaly but part of a broader systemic pattern. When liquidity rises, equities and digital assets alike tend to benefit, making M2 supply an essential indicator for timing Bitcoin price movements.

Forecasting Bitcoin Price to $108,000 by June 2025

To build a forward-looking perspective, Crosby employs historical fractals from previous bull markets to project future Bitcoin price movements. When these patterns are overlaid with current macro data, the model points to a scenario where Bitcoin price could retest and potentially surpass its all-time highs, targeting $108,000 by June 2025.

This optimistic projection for Bitcoin price hinges on the assumption that global liquidity continues its upward trajectory. The Federal Reserve’s recent statements suggest that further monetary stimulus could be deployed if market stability falters—another tailwind for Bitcoin price growth.

The Rate of Expansion Affects Bitcoin Price

While rising liquidity levels are significant, Crosby stresses the importance of monitoring the rate of liquidity expansion to predict Bitcoin price trends. The year-on-year M2 growth rate offers a more nuanced view of macroeconomic momentum. Although liquidity has generally increased, the pace of expansion had slowed temporarily before resuming an upward trend in recent months.

This trend is strikingly similar to conditions observed in early 2017, just before Bitcoin price entered an exponential growth phase. The parallels reinforce Crosby’s bullish outlook on Bitcoin price and emphasize the importance of dynamic, rather than static, macro analysis.

Final Thoughts: Preparing for the Next Bitcoin Price Phase

While potential risks such as a global recession or a significant equity market correction persist, current macro indicators point toward a favorable environment for Bitcoin price. Crosby’s data-driven approach offers investors a strategic lens to interpret and navigate the market.

For those looking to make informed decisions in a volatile environment, these insights provide actionable intelligence grounded in economic fundamentals to capitalize on Bitcoin price opportunities.

For more deep-dive research, technical indicators, real-time market alerts, and access to a growing community of analysts, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.