Opinion
A Kamala Presidency Could Be Just as Bullish for Bitcoin
Published
6 hours agoon
By
adminYes, I know, you’re here to let the hate flow.
You’ve bought all the rhetoric. Donald Trump likes crypto. He is embracing DeFi. He has his own shoes, and coins. He’s going to fire Gary! Like Polymarket in October, you think Trump is boo-llish.
Unfortunately, you’ve bought a lot of another kind of bull.
To unpack this, we have to understand what the Crypto 4 Trump initiative really is – and that’s an alliance of largely public U.S.-based mining firms and exchanges that have come together to spend aggressively to end their mistreatment.
They are tired of being sued and harassed, and otherwise chased out of America. As well, they have every reason to be.
But alas, the industry Bitcoin is not. This was the same argument made to justify the Fork Wars, and let’s just say for summation, that this ended terribly. If U.S. miners are forced elsewhere, mining will continue elsewhere, and decentralizing the hashrate, as we saw in the case of China’s mining ban, is quite simply: Good For Bitcoin™.
Sure, ASIC manufacturing may remain consolidated in a few international firms. Maybe it will take even longer to rebuild. But other countries will take advantage, and the Bitcoin network will carry on. Bitcoin may be our best opportunity to topple all of the current superpowers, and to empower the developing world. If that means leaving the U.S. behind, so be it.
Now let’s address the donkey in the room. A Kamala presidency will mean more enforcement of U.S. securities laws, not a referendum that allows millions of alts to proliferate.
A Trump victory almost certainly ensures only one outcome for our industry, and that is that the SEC gets defanged, and that means “coins beyond Bitcoin” will get a “level playing field.”
By contrast, continued enforcement of the SEC’s securities laws on the industry will rightfully make clear the difference between Bitcoin, which was distributed via proof-of-work (the only known way to circumvent securities sales), and all of the many centralized variants.
Simply put: It’s “crypto assets” that require a regulatory framework to survive, not Bitcoin, which is sufficiently decentralized.
Forcing the crypto industry’s builders to abide by these laws will doubtless benefit developers seeking to extend these capabilities to Bitcoin, the only major crypto with regulatory clarity. Are we actually going to argue that encouraging millions of developers to put their technology on Bitcoin (as opposed to Ethereum or Solana) would be a bad thing?
If there is a coherent thread to Bitcoin maximalism, it’s the assertion that everything outside of Bitcoin is either 1) a scam or 2) can be built on top of its blockchain. A continued crackdown on crypto will push the market to more thoroughly investigate the second point.
Undoubtedly, it would also boost Microstrategy’s stock, MSTR, as it would remain one of the few widely accessible plays to get legitimate beta on Bitcoin.
Sure, maybe the taxes from your Bitcoin gains will be higher, maybe spending will continue to be penalized. But anon, I thought you were HODLing anyway?
So, remind me, of all the supposed pro-Bitcoin policies of a Trump presidency, what is it that you expect to get, other than state-sanctioned degeneracy and block propagation in the heartland?
If you’re a single issue Bitcoin voter, shouldn’t that mean voting for an option that makes Bitcoin more decentralized, and less reliant on U.S. government policy?
Allow me to reintroduce you to Madame President Harris, a bullish choice for Bitcoin.
This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
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Adoption
El Salvador Survey Shows Bitcoin’s Lindy Effect in Action
Published
3 days agoon
October 19, 2024By
adminEl Salvador’s misguided critics got some new ammunition this week.
A recent survey revealed just 7.5% of Salvadorans use Bitcoin for transactions, and that 92% of Salvadorans do not. But while some (cue: Steve Hanke) may look at these numbers and think “Oh, well that experiment failed,” I disagree.
Even putting aside the increased tourism, business activity, and international notoriety, El Salvador’s Bitcoin legal tender law has been a success.
El Salvador currently has a population of around 6.3 million, meaning 475,000 (7.5%) people are now using Bitcoin for transactions. The fact that almost half a million citizens now use BTC in their daily life for transactions is pretty impressive, but the Lindy effect means we can expect this figure to increase with time.
Considering the history of El Salvador, it was obvious from the beginning that the entire country was not going to start using this new payments technology from day one. El Salvador has a history of failed currency regimes. It takes time for any new system to build trust.
As I pointed out three years ago, I believe Bitcoin needs to become a store of value first before it can become a medium of exchange. Bitcoin today, even with it being a $1.4 trillion dollar asset, is still just a drop in the ocean compared to vast global wealth.
There is still a common consensus in the general public that Bitcoin is risky to get into, and that will need to change before more people in more countries start using it on a daily basis.
Bitcoin is still a new asset class that is growing up. The more it grows up, the more credibility it earns, the more price increases, the more innovation happens that sprouts new transactional and custody solutions to meet non-technical people where they are.
This will take a long time, but it’s a process that is underway.
I see many Bitcoiners online who are so bullish that they believe that adoption as an everyday transaction method will happen suddenly over the next few years, but this discounts real-world data, like this survey, which shows the process is much slower.
All this is to say that if Bitcoin is going to see worldwide merchant adoption and use by everyday individuals, we’re going to need to see a much higher price, Bitcoin will need to be easier to use, and more trusted than it is today.
Exactly how long will it take? I don’t know for certain. But if you think of it as a loading bar, we’re already 7.5% complete on our way to 100% of Salvadorans transacting in Bitcoin.
Remember, this is progress. Nothing happens overnight.
This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
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