Bitcoin
Analyst Forecasts Bitcoin Bull Run Top With Time-Tested Indicator
Published
4 months agoon
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adminIn a video update on YouTube, crypto analyst Rekt Capital delved into the dynamics of Bitcoin’s price movements through the lens of the PI Cycle Top Indicator, a predictive tool that has garnered attention for its historical accuracy in pinpointing the peaks of Bitcoin bull runs.
Here’s How High Bitcoin Price Could Go This Cycle
The PI Cycle Top Indicator operates by tracking two key moving averages: a short-term 111-day moving average (colored orange in Rekt Capital’s visual analysis) and the 350 day moving average (depicted in green) to gauge extended market trends. A crucial aspect of this tool is the “crossover” event where the short-term moving average rises above the long-term average, historically signaling a peak in Bitcoin’s bull market within a few days.
However, the current market data shows that these two moving averages are diverging rather than converging, suggesting that the conditions for a bull market peak are not yet in place. “As these two PI Cycle moving averages are currently diverging from one another, the bull market peak is nowhere close,” Rekt Capital explained in his video.
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The 111-day moving average serves as a critical metric in Rekt Capital’s analysis. During bear market phases or pre-halving years, this moving average acts as a barometer for bargain buying opportunities, oscillating around it in downtrends. Conversely, in halving years, such as 2020, it tends to act as a support level, underpinning uptrends that lead to new all-time highs.
“Any dip below this moving average is a bargain buying territory,” Rekt Capital noted, emphasizing the strategic importance of this level during different market phases. Currently, Bitcoin is trading below this moving average, approximately at $59,000, which has not happened for a significant period since the pre-halving year, marking a potentially undervalued state relative to historical patterns.
The analysis suggests that if Bitcoin reclaims the $63,900 level—just above the current position of the 111-day moving average—it could end the current bargain buying opportunity, setting the stage for further upward movement. “We are approximately $5,000 away from reclaiming this region. Not much needs to happen for Bitcoin to bounce back and reclaim this region to end this bargain buying opportunity,” remarked Rekt Capital.
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Another element of the PI Cycle Top Indicator is the 350 day moving average. This average typically gets revisited in later stages of the market cycle, often acting as resistance before an upside deviation occurs.
“Upside deviations beyond the green moving average that’s when we see parabolic price action take place,” Rekt Capital pointed out, referencing past events in 2013 and 2017 where such movements were observed. The current green moving average resides around $96,000, indicating a significant upside potential before any parabolic risks manifest.
Rekt Capital’s analysis suggests that while Bitcoin is far from reaching the $96,000 mark, historical patterns predict that it will eventually approach and possibly exceed this level, leading to a short-lived period of rapid price increase.
“[We are] nowhere close to this green moving average because it resides at around $96k, so we’re still almost $30k away from this region […] once we break beyond $96k we have to understand that the clock is starting to then start ticking really for the end of the ball run and we might have have a a window of just a few months where Bitcoin will be rallying uninterruptedly with of course pullbacks,” the analyst explained.
Looking ahead, Rekt Capital emphasized the importance of monitoring the convergence of these two moving averages for signs of a potential bull market peak. “We need to see a flick up in the Pi Cycle moving average for that crossover to be in place to some degree,” he stated, indicating that a sharp rise in price action is required for a definitive crossover to materialize.
At press time, BTC traded at $58,695.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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Bitcoin
Metaplanet makes largest Bitcoin bet, acquires nearly 620 BTC
Published
39 minutes agoon
December 23, 2024By
adminTokyo-listed Metaplanet has purchased another 9.5 billion yen ($60.6 million) worth of Bitcoin, pushing its holdings to 1,761.98 BTC.
Metaplanet, a publicly traded Japanese company, has acquired 619.7 Bitcoin as part of its crypto treasury strategy, paying an average of 15,330,073 yen per (BTC), with a total investment of 9.5 billion yen.
According to the company’s latest financial disclosure, Metaplanet’s total Bitcoin holdings now stand at 1,761.98 BTC, with an average purchase price of 11,846,002 yen (~$75,628) per Bitcoin. The company has spent 20.872 billion yen in total on Bitcoin acquisitions, the document reads.
The latest purchase is the largest so far for the Tokyo-headquartered company and comes just days after Metaplanet issued its 5th Series of Ordinary Bonds via private placement with EVO FUND, raising 5 billion yen (approximately $32 million).
The proceeds from this issuance, as disclosed earlier, were allocated specifically for purchasing Bitcoin. These bonds, set to mature in June 2025, carry no interest and allow for early redemption under specific conditions.
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The company also shared updates on its BTC Yield, a metric used to measure the growth of Bitcoin holdings relative to fully diluted shares. From Oct. 1 to Dec. 23, Metaplanet’s BTC Yield surged to 309.82%, up from 41.7% in the previous quarter.
Bitcoin itself has seen strong performance this year, climbing 120% and outperforming assets like the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices. However, it has recently pulled back from its all-time high of $108,427, trading at $97,000 after the Federal Reserve indicated only two interest rate cuts in 2025.
Despite the retreat, on-chain metrics indicate that Bitcoin is still undervalued based on its Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV-Z) score, which stands at 2.84 — below the threshold of 3.7 that historically signals an asset is overvalued.
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Altcoin Season
End of Altcoin Season? Glassnode Co-Founders Warn Alts in Danger of Lagging Behind After Last Week’s Correction
Published
4 hours agoon
December 23, 2024By
adminThe creators of the crypto analytics firm Glassnode are warning that altcoins could lose all bullish momentum following last week’s market correction.
Jan Happel and Yann Allemann, who go by the handle Negentropic on the social media platform X, tell their 63,400 followers that “altcoin season,” which they say began in late November, could come to an abrupt end after alts witnessed deep pullbacks over the last seven days.
According to the Glassnode co-founders, traders and investors will likely have a risk-off approach on altcoins unless Bitcoin recovers a key psychological price point.
“Is This the End of Altcoin Season?
Bitcoin dominance is surging after dipping below $100,000, while altcoins are losing critical supports. Dominance has risen and resumed its upward trend, signaling a stronger BTC environment.
If BTC stabilizes above $100,00, we might see a pump in altcoins now in accumulation zones. Until then, Bitcoin appears poised to lead, leaving altcoins lagging behind.”
The Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart tracks how much of the total crypto market cap belongs to BTC. In the current state of the market, a surging BTC.D suggests that altcoins are losing value faster than Bitcoin.
At time of writing, BTC.D is hovering at 59%.
Looking at Bitcoin itself, the Glassnode executives say long-term Bitcoin holders are massively unloading their holdings as other investor cohorts pick up the slack.
“The Board Keeps Shifting.
As BTC continues flowing out of exchanges during this dip, long-term holders are exiting forcefully, while short-term holders step in without hesitation.
Whales quietly accumulate, miners remain neutral, and selling pressure has merely reshuffled the board.
New hands are absorbing the sales.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is worth $97,246.
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Altcoins
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Predicts Institutional Interest in Altcoins, Says 2025 the Year of Crypto Diversification
Published
20 hours agoon
December 22, 2024By
adminBitwise CIO Matt Hougan says a wave of institutional interest in altcoins is coming next year, largely due to potential regulatory clarity and more exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
In a new interview with Bloomberg, Hougan says that institutional money is in the early stages of broadening out to other crypto assets besides just Bitcoin (BTC).
Hougan forecasts that 2025 will be the year that institutional investors will begin to incorporate more diversification in their crypto-investing strategies the same way they do in other asset classes like equities or bonds.
“You’re already seeing it broaden out actually. A lot of people were worried about the Ethereum ETFs for instance, which launched this summer and had tepid inflows.
But over the last month or so, you’ve seen billions of dollars flow into those products.
Again, the things that have happened in crypto in the past keep happening. Historically, most people enter crypto through Bitcoin, and then they discover Ethereum, and then they think about Solana. There’s no reason to assume that the institutions that came into Bitcoin won’t move on to other assets in the future.
In fact, I think in 2025, you’re going to see an explosion of interest in index space strategies that give diversified exposure to crypto. Of course, [that is] something we’ve been doing at Bitwise since 2017 when we pioneered that concept. I think 2025 is when that becomes a mainstream way to allocate to this space, the same way it is to stocks and bonds and real estate and everything else.”
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