An analyst who continues to grow his following with timely crypto calls believes that altcoins are about to witness a final capitulation event.

Crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen tells his 876,600 followers on the social media platform X that the altcoin market looks poised to plummet against Bitcoin (TOTAL3/BTC).

TOTAL3 serves as a proxy for the altcoin market as it tracks the market cap of all crypto excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH) and stablecoins.

According to Cowen, TOTAL3/BTC appears to follow a price pattern witnessed in 2019 when the pair slumped to a key support level before a reversal and a strong uptrend.

“It looks like the grand finale of the altcoin reckoning has finally arrived.

The altcoin reckoning should be over by December 2024 (2nd week of January 2025 at the latest).

It has been a long journey, and many gave up along the way, but this process was always going to play out.” 

A bearish TOTAL3/BTC chart suggests that Bitcoin is primed to significantly outperform the altcoin market.

Zooming in on the altcoin market, Cowen takes a closer look at the OTHERS chart, which tracks the market cap of all crypto assets excluding the 10 largest coins and stablecoins. According to Cowen, OTHERS against Bitcoin (OTHERS/BTC) just lost a key support level, suggesting that lower-cap altcoins are about to lose a lot of value against Bitcoin.

“I warned that OTHERS/BTC would sweep the lows, rally to the BMSB (bull market support band) then get rejected and put in new cycle lows.

This is now playing out, while those that promote memecoin garbage will pretend like this is not happening.

Don’t lose all your money chasing garbage memecoins, the people that promote them non-stop will not care if you lose all your money trading them, and you will find they will move on to promoting different projects in just a few months.” 

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Did Hamster Kombat’s viral rise lead to its own downfall? How did 260 million players vanish in months, leaving the game a shadow of its former self?

From boom to dust

Hamster Kombat (HMSTR), a once-celebrated tap-to-earn game on Telegram, seemed destined for blockchain gaming fame, amassing a jaw-dropping 300 million users within months of its launch in March 2024. 

But in a surprising twist, this viral sensation has seen an 86% nosedive in active users, dropping to just 41 million by November 2024 and facing one of the most dramatic declines in crypto gaming history. 

The game’s token, HMSTR, has also plummeted in value by over 76%, sliding from its September high of $0.01004 to just $0.0024 as of Nov. 5, casting doubts over the project’s stability. 

Behind this exodus lie a series of interconnected setbacks: delayed airdrops, poor user experience, government criticisms, and controversial player bans. 

Could the game’s ambitious goals have been the very seeds of its undoing? Let’s delve into the numbers, the strategies, and the backlash to find out what led to Hamster Kombat’s colossal fall from grace.

The rise and promise of Hamster Kombat

Hamster Kombat launched with an ambitious promise: to make blockchain gaming accessible to everyone. A big part of the game’s appeal lies in its simplicity. No need for gaming consoles, advanced computers, or complex controls — players simply tapped, and in return, they earned. 

Even Telegram’s CEO, Pavel Durov, hailed it as “the fastest-growing digital service in the world,” citing its potential to redefine how people interacted with blockchain technology. 

People from all over the world were suddenly part of this booming virtual ecosystem, where tapping became the new mining, and the tokens they collected had real value attached.

But the game itself couldn’t keep players engaged. The initial excitement over the tap-to-earn model quickly faded as players found the gameplay repetitive and shallow. 

With no fresh challenges, Hamster Kombat began to lose its appeal, leaving users with little reason to return, especially as the HMSTR token kept losing value. 

The AI-generated graphics, which initially seemed quirky, were also criticized for feeling cheap and uninspired, adding to the perception that Hamster Kombat was more of a cash grab than a well-crafted gaming experience.

The simplicity that first drew users in became a source of frustration, and the game’s high hopes for sustainability faced challenges that even a massive user base couldn’t fix.

The airdrop disappointment and the backlash of bans

One of Hamster Kombat’s most eagerly awaited events was its token airdrop in late September, intended as a reward for player loyalty and engagement. 

With nearly 129 million players eligible to claim HMSTR tokens, expectations ran high. But what was meant to be a celebratory event ended up driving players away in droves. 

The airdrop left many users frustrated, not just because of delays but due to the surprisingly low value of their rewards. 

Some players who had spent hours grinding the game found their earnings amounted to just $1 to $10 — a fraction of what they’d hoped for, leading some to label the airdrop as “dust.”

To make matters worse, the rollout of the airdrop was marred by delays and technical glitches. Originally promised as a straightforward distribution, the airdrop faced several postponements, testing players’ patience. 

By the time it finally happened, the discontent among the user base was palpable. Many players took to social media to vent their frustrations, some claiming they felt deceived by what they saw as broken promises. 

This backlash severely damaged the game’s reputation, transforming the airdrop from an incentive to a point of contention.

The controversy didn’t end there. Hamster Kombat introduced a new anti-cheat system alongside the airdrop, aiming to curb fraudulent activities. 

While intended to protect genuine players, this system ended up banning around 2.3 million accounts and confiscating approximately 6.8 billion HMSTR tokens. Many players felt blindsided by these sudden restrictions, as even legitimate users were caught in the dragnet. 

Some felt that the sweeping bans were too harsh, and the confiscations only added to the resentment, leaving a large chunk of the player base feeling alienated and mistreated.

The fallout was swift. The airdrop disappointment, combined with the massive bans, fueled a wave of user departures. By early November, Hamster Kombat’s once-formidable user base had dwindled to just 41 million monthly active players, a fraction of its 300 million peak.

Government scrutiny and the ripple effect of public doubt

Hamster Kombat’s rapid rise wasn’t just on players’ radar — it also attracted the attention of governments, and not always in a positive way. 

In some regions, officials expressed concern over the game’s influence, viewing it as more than just a harmless pastime. As its user base swelled, so did the scrutiny, with some authorities labeling the game as a “disruptive force” in their societies.

In Iran, the backlash was particularly strong. The game caught the attention of the country’s military officials, who were concerned that Hamster Kombat was drawing attention away from political matters. 

One Iranian military deputy chief went so far as to call it a “soft tool” being used by the West to distract citizens from national priorities and weaken the country’s religious governance, positioning it as a digital disruptor with intentions beyond simple entertainment.

The situation was similar in Russia, where the chairman of the State Duma Committee took an even harsher stance, branding Hamster Kombat as a “scam”, and called for an outright ban.

The developers of Hamster Kombat have also had to address their connection with Gotbit, a crypto market maker now under investigation for fraud in the U.S. 

As the authorities filed charges against Gotbit for market manipulation, Hamster Kombat publicly distanced itself from the company.

Despite these efforts, users have continued to question the stability of the HMSTR token, which has already experienced a stark drop in value.

What’s next for HMSTR?

The sharp downturn in Hamster Kombat’s player base and token price has left many in the crypto community asking: is this just a stumble, or has the game reached a point of no return?

One of the most pressing concerns is a breakdown in trust, with disappointed users feeling that Hamster Kombat has “betrayed the trust of its community.” 

The backlash stems from a perception that the game prioritized influencer partnerships and flashy marketing over a genuinely user-focused experience.

Many early adopters, who initially hoped for long-term rewards, are now disillusioned by broken promises, delayed airdrops, and the steady devaluation of the token. 

One disappointed player noted they left after the first season, saying they had “so much hope” for the game but ultimately felt let down by the experience.

Another major worry has been the ongoing decline in the value of the HMSTR token. As one observer put it, the token’s price chart is “in freefall,” with many users predicting that exchange delistings are “probably around the corner.” 

As the U.S. presidential election looms, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has expressed optimism about the crypto market’s long-term prospects, emphasizing that digital assets are well-positioned to thrive regardless of the election outcome.

While the US election results may bring short-term fluctuations, Hougan believes that the crypto market’s growth trajectory remains robust.

Bitwise CIO Shares Good News On Crypto Market

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan maintains that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins will continue their upward momentum, irrespective of which party prevails in the election. According to Hougan, “Washington can’t stop crypto.”

He argues that while government actions may temporarily influence the market’s pace or create regulatory challenges, they are unlikely to halt the industry’s expansion. The only potential setback, he noted, could come from a Democratic sweep, which might introduce more regulatory hurdles for the broader crypto space, particularly for altcoins.

Over the past few years, the crypto market has faced various challenges with respect to regulations and the market. Nonetheless, there has been a significant level of crypto assets’ stability in the face of SEC lawsuits and regulatory risk. Hougan has noted that even with the constant monitoring, the crypto market has seen significant growth, which can be attributed to the sound base and the growing adoption by institutions.

Crypto Market Growth: Key Indicators Show Positive Trends

There is clear evidence of the crypto market’s growth since the last U.S. election in 2020. The TVL in DeFi platforms, the price of Bitcoin, and the transaction volumes of Ethereum have all risen.

From the Bitwise data, institutional investment in the crypto assets has been on the rise, as more and more traditional financial institutions are exploring blockchain and tokenization.

Furthermore, entrance of Bitcoin spot ETFs has brought new institutional investors to the market which in turn has increased the demand for cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins have also grown significantly with market capitalization increasing steadily implying that these virtual currencies are gaining traction in the global financial system. According to Bitwise CIO, Matt Hougan, these indicators are evidence that the crypto market is robust and was beginning to mature.

Institutional Investment and Tokenization Trends Expected to Persist

According to Matt Hougan another emerging trend is the involvement of institutional investors. Most of the big banks have changed their approach and have started allocating capital to crypto from a “zero allocation” policy. Hougan explained that this is expected to persist as more companies accept digital assets as an asset class in their investment portfolios.

Furthermore, the adoption of tokenisation and real-world assets as representations on blockchain networks by Wall Street is expected to gain more momentum. Hougan uses the case of traditional asset managers coming up with tokenized funds as an example of how investors are able to access new levels of liquidity.

These developments are consistent with a trend of the adoption of the blockchain technology by conventional financial systems, which can be helpful for the long term growth of the cryptocurrency industry.

Short-Term Volatility Expected, But Long-Term Trends Remain Strong

While Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan acknowledges that the election results may influence short-term market volatility, he remains optimistic about the crypto market’s resilience.

Historical trends show that Bitcoin and other major crypto assets often stabilize after political events, providing investors with potential buying opportunities during temporary dips. He advises investors to keep a long-term perspective, as the fundamental drivers of the crypto market remain intact.

Despite factors like the recent Mt. Gox Bitcoin transfers, which have raised concerns about possible sell-offs, the market has shown resilience. According to Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, a post-election rally in risk assets, including Bitcoin, is likely, as investor caution gives way to renewed optimism. Lee’s projections suggest that favorable economic conditions and supportive Federal Reserve policies could benefit crypto assets, contributing to a stable and growing market environment.

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Kelvin Munene Murithi

Kelvin is a distinguished writer with expertise in crypto and finance, holding a Bachelor’s degree in Actuarial Science. Known for his incisive analysis and insightful content, he possesses a strong command of English and excels in conducting thorough research and delivering timely cryptocurrency market updates.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.