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Arthur Hayes

Bitcoin 200-Day Average Signals Waning Bullish Momentum, Here’s What It Means For BTC Price

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2 months ago

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A key long-term price indicator for Bitcoin, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) appears to be losing its bullish momentum as the US economy added fewer jobs in August 2024.

Bitcoin Must Overcome The 200-Day SMA To Reverse Trend

The 200-day SMA is considered one of the more reliable long-term indicators to gauge an asset’s upcoming price action. Bitcoin’s 200-day SMA shows a weakening bullish momentum, giving short-term traders little joy.

Notably, this is the first time since October 2023 that the 200-day SMA looks poised to enter bearish territory. Since late August, the daily increase in average price increases for BTC has not crossed $50, while it used to consistently record moves of more than $200 per day during the first half of 2024.

At press time, the 200-day SMA stood at $63,840, about 13.96% higher than the current BTC price of $56,840.

It’s worth highlighting that short-term moving average indicators such as the 50-day SMA and the 100-day SMA are already past their peak and have been trending downward. A bearish crossover was seen recently when the 100-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA.

According to cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez, the Stochastic relative-strength index (RSI) has signaled a trend reversal from bullish to bearish on the Bitcoin 2-month chart. If going by historical data, such a move has typically led to a significant correction of up to 75.50%.

In addition, Google Trends shows that searches for the word “Bitcoin” have been at their lowest since October 2023, when BTC was hovering around $30,000. 

Adding to the overall bearish sentiment surrounding the leading digital asset, former CEO of BitMEX cryptocurrency exchange Arthur Hayes posted on X that he’s currently short Bitcoin and could see the crypto-asset crash to sub $50k level over the weekend. 

In contrast, other market experts opine that Bitcoin will likely bottom at $55,000 before the influx of US liquidity helps re-ignite the severely lacking buying pressure in the crypto markets.

Bitcoin’s Fundamentals Remain Intact

Although several crypto analysts seem to lean bearish on Bitcoin’s short-term price movements, the long-term bull case for the leading digital asset remains unchanged. 

Crypto analyst Crypto Jelle posits that Bitcoin’s tepid price action during the summer might reach its conclusion by early October before it could potentially resume another rally to the upside.

Institutional interest in Bitcoin also continues to rise, as Swiss banking giant ZKB recently rolled out Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) trading and custody services for its customers. At press time, BTC trades at $56,018.

Bitcoin price action on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com



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Arthur Hayes, Murad’s Prediction For Meme Coins, AI & DeFi Coins For 2025

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2 weeks ago

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November 9, 2024

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In a recent podcast, crypto experts Murad Mahmudov and Arthur Hayes shared their insights on the evolving roles of meme coins, DeFi, and AI tokens. The experts highlight significant shifts and predict how these assets may function by 2025. Besides, they also discussed the ways in which the crypto space is evolving, with meme coins and DeFi tokens acting as distinct financial instruments with varying purposes and trajectories in the market.

Murad & Arthur Hayes On DeFi And Meme Coin

Murad Mahmudov, known for his analysis of crypto market cycles, expressed skepticism about the idea of a “DeFi Renaissance” spurred by potential future US policies under the Trump Presidency. In a recent podcast, Mahmudov argued that most DeFi protocols prioritize their own growth over distributing revenues to stakeholders. Arthur Hayes also echoed a similar sentiment, predicting a minor impact of Trump’s win on the crypto space in the longer run.

He stated, “A lot of people have been arguing that Trump Victory is going to kind of bring about DeFi Renaissance or whatever, but I remain skeptical.” He sees DeFi tokens as often being speculative, deriving a large portion of their value from community-driven narratives rather than intrinsic financial performance.

Talking about meme coins, Mahmudov sees the niche to be gradually becoming a sort of “purification mechanism” in the crypto space. He suggested that as the market matures, meme coins and DeFi tokens will diverge into two distinct categories: cash-flow coins, which are serious, revenue-oriented, and likely to appeal to institutional investors, and meme coins, which retain speculative and community-driven appeal.

“In the future, meme coins will continue to absorb community and speculative premiums,” he said. Besides, he added that this separation will help legitimize cash-flow coins in the eyes of more traditional financial analysts. Meanwhile, Murad has shortlisted top meme coins like DOGE, FLOKI, and SHIB to benefit the most in the coming days.

However, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has a different and more opportunistic perspective on meme coins. Rather than holding long-term, he views these assets as trading instruments with quick in-and-out opportunities. “Meme coins are fun to trade because you don’t need to understand cash flows or tech,” Hayes commented. For him, the appeal lies in viral appeal. This speculative approach, according to Hayes, allows him to capitalize on the short-term hype while minimizing long-term risk exposure.

AI Coins In Focus

The conversation also covered the rise of AI meme coins, such as GOAT, which Arthur Hayes views as noteworthy due to their pioneering status. While Murad sees AI-based meme coins as potentially fleeting, since rapid AI advancements could quickly make certain tokens obsolete, Hayes believes owning the original and widely recognized AI token could be valuable.

Hayes explained he would invest in the token as the market is talking about it. Besides, the GOAT crypto has also gained notable attention lately, as evidenced by the robust surge in its price. However, both experts raised caution for the long-term viability of tech-driven crypto tokens amid AI advancements.

Mahmudov argued that AI will accelerate code commoditization, making it harder for purely technological tokens to retain value. Instead, he believes that tokens grounded in “human faith, community, and belief” will endure, highlighting his preference for BTC and established meme coins over tech-reliant assets.

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Rupam Roy

Rupam is a seasoned professional with three years of experience in the financial market, where he has developed a reputation as a meticulous research analyst and insightful journalist. He thrives on exploring the dynamic nuances of the financial landscape. Currently serving as a sub-editor at Coingape, Rupam’s expertise extends beyond conventional boundaries. His role involves breaking stories, analyzing AI-related developments, providing real-time updates on the crypto market, and presenting insightful economic news.
Rupam’s career is characterized by a deep passion for unraveling the complexities of finance and delivering impactful stories that resonate with a diverse audience.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Arthur Hayes

Pendle Foundation, BitMEX Co-Founder Moving PENDLE To Binance—What’s Going On?

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2 months ago

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September 27, 2024

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PENDLE, the native token of Pendle, a real-world asset (RWA) tokenization platform, may be steady at press time. However, looking at CoinMarketCap data, the token is up 130X from its November 2022 lows and 41% from all-time highs registered in 2024.

Whales Sending Tokens To Binance

As prices cool off, there are emerging concerns. According to trackers, the Pendle Foundation, tasked with promoting the RWA platform, has been offloading tokens. At the same time, Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, one of the first crypto perpetual trading platforms, is selling.

Specifically, over the last three weeks, a big chunk of PENDLE transfers have been moved to Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, a net negative for sentiment.  

Pendle Foundation moving tokens to Binance | Source: @OnchainLens via X

On September 16, the foundation’s governance wallet moved 600,000 PENDLE worth over $2.4 million to Binance. Over the past year, the wallet has moved 3.72 million PENDLE worth over $11.95 million to Binance.

Meanwhile, Spot on Chain has also picked out transfers from Hayes. On September 24, the BitMEX co-founder deposited 240,000 PENDLE worth over $958,000 to Binance. Over the last four days, Hayes has moved more than $6.5 million of the token to Binance.  

Arthur Hayes selling | Source: @spotonchain via CoinMarketCap

Hayes is one of the PENDLE whales. Although there is no direct proof that the former BitMEX executive has been selling, moving tokens to Binance could signal his intention to sell.

Currently, Hayes owns over 253,00 PENDLE worth nearly $990,000. This holding represents around 4% of his overall crypto portfolio.

PENDLE Up 100% From August Lows, Will Whales HODL?

 

Despite the exchange transfers, the token continues to shake off Q3 2024 weaknesses. Buyers are back in the equation after sinking to as low as $1.7 in early August.

At press time, the token is up 100% from August lows, and buyers are bent on reclaiming the April 2024 highs at around $7.2. For the uptrend to remain, buyers must hold steady above $3.5, or August highs, and sustain the current upside momentum.

PENDLE price moving upward on the daily chart | Source: PENDLEUSDT on Binance, TradingView

Looking at the daily chart, bull bars are banding along the upper BB–a volatility indicator–suggesting that the underlying momentum is strong.

If buyers build on this, PENDLE could register fresh all-time highs, incentivizing more whales to HODL. Currently, CoinMarketCap data shows that over 58% of all tokens in circulation is held by whales.



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Arthur Hayes

Arthur Hayes's Family Office Funds Another Bitcoin Core Developer

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2 months ago

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September 26, 2024

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Maelstrom, the family office of former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, has awarded Jon Atack a one-year Bitcoin developer grant. He is the second recipient of Maelstrom’s grant program supporting open-source Bitcoin developers.

Jon is an experienced contributor to Bitcoin Core, having started in 2019. He was also recently made a maintainer of Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPs).

In a statement, Arthur Hayes said, “We hope this financial support allows Jon to focus on his work on Bitcoin without worrying about income.” He emphasized the grant’s no-strings-attached nature, giving Atack freedom to work independently.

Bitcoin’s open-source codebase depends on voluntary developers, so grants help enable more contributors to work full-time. Proponents believe having more funded developers benefits Bitcoin’s ecosystem.

Jon said, “I’m concerned about human freedom, decentralization of power, individual empowerment, privacy and self-sovereignty. Bitcoin and open source software play a key part in striving for these causes.”

He plans to spend the year reviewing proposals and changes to improve Bitcoin Core and BIPs. Jon stated, “Bitcoin isn’t perfect. It needs further decentralization, continued vigilance, review, bug-fixing, updates, maintenance, and improved robustness, performance, privacy, scaling, documentation and user experience.”

Maelstrom aims to strengthen Bitcoin through no-strings grants to developers like Atack. Simultaneously, he is also receiving funding from another organization, OpenSats.



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