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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Posts Worst Q1 in a Decade, Raising Questions About Where the Cycle Stands

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Bitcoin just notched its worst first quarter in a decade, falling 11.7% as markets struggled to understand the new administration’s economic agenda.

The performance ranked 12th out of the past 15 first quarters, according to NYDIG Research’s data.

The drawdown invites a familiar question in crypto circles: is the cycle over? The last time bitcoin started the year this poorly was in 2015, during a prolonged slump following the 2013 peak and after the collapse of Mt. Gox, according to NYDIG. Back then, prices recovered modestly over the rest of the year before surging in 2016.

Q1 bitcoin returns ranked (NYDIG)

In the first quarter of 2020, amid a market sell-off tied to fears surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic, BTC saw a 9.4% drawdown but then recovered to end the year up over 300%. In other years with negative Q1 returns—like 2014, 2018 and 2022—bitcoin ended the year down sharply, coinciding with the tail ends of previous bull cycles, the research note said.

This time around, the backdrop is murky. Cryptocurrency prices surged after Donald Trump won the U.S. election in November after running a pro-crypto campaign. While under the Trump administration, the sector has been gaining greater regulatory clarity, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) backed off a number of lawsuits against crypto firms, it isn’t all bullish.

Trump unveiled his reciprocal tariffs against nearly every country in the world last week, leading to a massive $5.4 trillion U.S. equities market wipeout in just two days. This led to the S&P 500 index’s lowest level in 11 months and the Nasdaq 100’s entry into bear market territory. While bitcoin has outperformed so far, what will happen after Monday’s opening bell is unclear.

Historically, a weak Q1 doesn’t always spell doom for BTC, NYDIG’s data shows. The asset has bounced back in half of the years when it started in the red. The recent macroeconomic backdrop has seen analysts raise recession odds, which could test BTC’s role as a “U.S. isolation hedge.”
Read more: Chart of The Week: Will April Bring Good Luck or Fool’s Hope for Bitcoin?





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ALCH

Crypto Strategist Sees Solana-Based Memecoin Surging Higher, Says One AI Altcoin Flashing Strong Chart

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A closely followed crypto analyst believes one meme token operating on Solana (SOL) is in the early stages of a market recovery.

Pseudonymous analyst Altcoin Sherpa tells his 243,800 followers on the social media platform X that he’s bullish on the memecoin Bonk (BONK).

The trader shares a chart suggesting that BONK will face resistance at the $0.000012 level before printing a bullish higher low setup and rallying to his target above $0.0000145.

“BONK is looking strong in the short term, and should go higher. Should be a pullback around the 200 EMA (exponential moving average) on the four-hour chart but still, I think this has pulled back enough to where any buying down here is probably reasonable.”

Image
Source: Altcoin Sherpa/X

At time of writing, BONK is worth $0.00001376.

Turning to the low-cap altcoin Alchemist AI (ALCH), the analyst says the coin appears to be in an uptrend and that he’s waiting for potential dips to accumulate the asset.

ALCH is an artificial intelligence (AI)-based crypto project that allows users with no coding skills to generate codes by providing natural language descriptions.

Says Altcoin Sherpa,

“ALCH still seems like a really strong chart, don’t see it being mentioned much. I think it’s basically taken the place of ARC; a super volatile AI coin that moves 20% a day. Not in it but traded it a lot before; will look to buy dips.”

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Source: Altcoin Sherpa/X

At time of writing, ALCH is the 431st-largest crypto asset by market cap, trading at $0.109.

Looking at Bitcoin, Altcoin Sherpa thinks that BTC will continue to consolidate within a large trading range in the short to mid-term.

“Expecting there is some sort of chop between $70,000-$90,000 over the next several weeks for BTC. Relative bottom probably in, but still some more consolidation to come.”

Image
Source: Altcoin Sherpa/X

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $85,366.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Michael Saylor Hints At Another MicroStrategy Bitcoin Purchase, BTC Price To Rally?

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MicroStrategy is lacing up for a potential Bitcoin purchase after Michael Saylor flashed the tell-tale buy signal. The incoming purchase will be the company’s first in Q2 after pausing Bitcoin purchases at the start of April in an eyebrow-raising move.

Michael Saylor Flashes Bitcoin Buy Signal

MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor has dropped clues that the software company will continue its Bitcoin accumulation spree. In an X post, Saylor shared MicroStrategy’s portfolio tracker revealing the company’s Bitcoin holdings and valuations.

Michael Saylor’s previous posts sharing Microstrategy’s portfolio tracker over the weekend have resulted in purchases at the start of the week. Investors are lapping up Saylor’s portfolio tracker post and the accompanying caption as cues for a BTC purchase on Monday.

“No tariffs on Orange Dots,” said Saylor, taking a jibe at brewing tariff wars between the US and China.

MicroStrategy had previously halted its Bitcoin purchase spree at the start of April leading to a slump in MSTR price. At the time, there was significant chatter that MicroStrategy may be forced to offload its Bitcoin holdings to cover obligations following a dip in prices.

Per the portfolio tracker, MicroStrategy holds 528,185 BTC on its balance sheet valued at $44.7 billion. Michael Saylor hinting at a potential Bitcoin purchase follows a small dip in prices with BTC holding the $83K mark.

Will Bitcoin Price Rally?

Saylor’s hint at buying Bitcoin has triggered a small bump in prices as the top cryptocurrency surpassed $83K. However, an actual purchase will trigger a significant price action for BTC in line with previous accumulations.

MicroStrategy’s last Bitcoin purchase of 22,048 BTC jolted the markets in line with investors’ expectations. However, there are fears that macroeconomic events like the US-China tariff war may affect a potential BTC rally following MicroStrategy’s incoming purchase.

Bitcoin price has rebounded after a previous bloodbath, sparking fresh optimism in the markets. Crypto Joao Wedson predicts that Bitcoin is not out of the woods yet and a grim drop to $65K is still a possibility for the top cryptocurrency.

“We’re not ruling out the possibility of the price dipping below $65K, as several metrics point to that region as strong support – such as the True Market Mean Price and Alpha Price, both sitting exactly around $64,700,” said Wedson.

Crypto analyst Doctor Profit warns that a BTC price drop to these levels may force MicroStrategy to sell MSTR to avoid liquidation.

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Aliyu Pokima

Aliyu Pokima is a seasoned cryptocurrency and emerging technologies journalist with a knack for covering needle-moving stories in the space. Aliyu delivers breaking news stories, regulatory updates, and insightful analysis with depth and precision. When he’s not poring over charts or following leads, Aliyu enjoys playing the bass guitar, lifting weights and running marathons.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Bitcoin

Crypto Analyst Says Bitcoin Back in Business, Calls for BTC Uptrend if One Support Level Holds

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A crypto strategist who accurately called Bitcoin’s collapse below $80,000 believes that BTC’s long-term uptrend will remain intact if it stays above a key price area.

In a new strategy session, pseudonymous analyst Cheds tells his 49,800 YouTube subscribers that Bitcoin appears to have broken out of a W pattern on the four-hour chart.

A W pattern is typically seen as a bullish reversal structure, as it suggests that an asset has printed a price floor after bouncing from a key support level twice.

“We had a break of the W and then a throwback, a throwback being a bullish retest from above. This looks pretty conducive, and this type of price action tells me, ‘Okay, we might be front running $72,000.’

Giving me a little bit of a confidence was a shift in equities markets, and the idea that price was at the MA (moving average) 50, and that’s been support.”

Cheds also says that Bitcoin will likely see higher prices as long as its immediate support level between $78,500 and $81,000 holds.

“Regain $81,000 and we’re back in business… Back above $81,000, we’re back with the idea of regaining that low time frame pivot corresponding with the high time frame support at the MA50, and with the idea that the bulls are going to recapture the trend, which is the rising MA200.”

Image
Source: Cheds/X

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $85,301.

 

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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