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Bitcoin Could Rally to $80,000 on the Eve of US Elections

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Bitcoin has experienced wild price swings since Vice President Kamala Harris announced her candidacy for the U.S. Presidential election in July 2024.

The largest cryptocurrency attempted to test its previous all-time high of $73,738 on Oct. 29, 2024, with no success. Traders expect higher volatility closer to elections and in the aftermath of the event. Crypto prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi provide insight into crypto traders’ views. 

Polymarket sees about $3.21 billion in trading volume as participants wager on the winner of the November elections. Harris’ opponent, former U.S. President Donald Trump, is a clear favorite, with 61.1% bets in his favor, on Polymarket.

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Presidential election Winner 2024 bets on Polymarket | Source: Polymarket.com

Kalshi, a prediction market regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission places the odds of Trump’s win at 56.8% against Harris’ 43.2%. The betting contract has drawn $234.98 million as of November 5, 2024. 

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Kalshi betting contract on “Who will win the Presidential Election?” | Source: Kalshi.com

The efficacy of betting markets in predicting a winner in the election remains debatable, however it sheds light on the sentiment among crypto traders. 

Trump rallied crypto traders’ support with his pro-crypto approach to regulation, and speech at the Nashville Bitcoin Conference. The former U.S. President shared his plans for a national Bitcoin reserve and proposed making the States a world leader in BTC mining. The former President’s plan is that the U.S. will hold 100% of the Bitcoin in its possession. 

Harris’ “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men” is a proposal that reflects the Vice President’s stance on crypto, while much detail is left out, it points at a measured approach to the asset class. 

U.S. markets won’t be open late on Tuesday, as states tally votes, however crypto is a major exception and a Trump win could push Bitcoin closer to the $80,000 level according to data from BTC derivatives markets. 

Derivatives data points at a run to the range between $60k – $80k

Deribit’s Bitcoin Volatility Index shows a consistent rise in volatility since September 26, 2024, however the metric failed to see a major move like one noted during President Joe Biden’s exit from the Presidential election, in July, and the U.S. markets correction in August.

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Bitcoin Volatility Index (DVOL) | Source: Deribit Metrics

For the weeks following the elections, data from Deribit exchange highlights the $60,000 to $80,000 range, as the one that collects the peak open interest, or outstanding futures contracts for both bullish and bearish bets of traders. 

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Open interest by strike price | Source: Deribit Exchange

Bitcoin Spot Exchange Traded Fund inflow data from Farside Investors shows a net outflow of $541.10 million on Nov. 4. This marks the second consecutive day of institutional investors pulling capital from the asset, likely preparing for the volatility in the aftermath of the election.

Combining data from the prediction market and Farside Investors’ BTC ETF flows, it is observed that institutional investors expressed confidence in Bitcoin and increased their capital flow when the odds of a Trump win were higher, nearly 67%, on October 30. Bitcoin ETFs received a net of $893.3 million in inflows on the same day. 

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Spot Bitcoin ETF flows | Source: Farside Investors

In March, (BTC) Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $73,738 in response to the large volume of capital inflow to U.S. based Spot Bitcoin ETFs. At the time of writing, on Tuesday, November 5, Bitcoin hovers around the $69,000 level, less than 10% away from the all-time high. 

Technical analysis: Bitcoin eyes rally to new ATH

Key events since July 2024 have aided the price swings observed in Bitcoin. The BTC/USDT daily chart from TradingView shows BTC’s attempt to test its previous all-time high post Harris’s announcement of her proposal for crypto. 

Derivatives data highlights the importance of the $60,000 to $80,000 range for Bitcoin price. The asset traded within this range throughout the events since July, with the exception of its August 5 decline to $49,000. 

BTC is in a short-term uptrend, starting Aug. 5 and the token could extend its gains, forming higher highs and higher lows, post the eve of the elections, in the aftermath. Bitcoin’s previous all-time high at $73,738 is a key resistance and a successful break past this level could push BTC closer to its $80,000 target. 

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BTC/USDT daily price chart | Source: TradingView.com

Bitcoin is still undervalued ahead of the election

Crypto.news talked to experts ti get insights on Bitcoin price.

“With the US Election taking place today, many believe that the price of crypto will be immediately swayed by the candidate who wins, since they have varying stances on the future of digital assets, with Trump historically being more inclusive of digital assets than Harris. While this may be true in the short term, traders should also consider that the price of crypto goes beyond what party directly supports and relies more heavily on policies they will implement around inflation, global political discourse, and the availability of investment opportunities within the digital assets space.”

BingX spokesperson

The BingX executive believes that the current cycle is one of the worst-performing ones, post the Bitcoin halving, leading to the belief that BTC is still undervalued. 

“If we look at other market sentiment indicators, crypto-related stocks have been climbing, with MicroStrategy, and Robinhood both up in the month before today’s election. In general, the digital asset community should expect to see the price of digital assets rise solely based on historical indicators.”

“If the elected candidate is supportive of crypto, it could boost market confidence; if not, it could introduce some uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the election outcome could trigger market fluctuations. Investors should closely monitor election developments and market reactions and be prepared to manage risks accordingly.”

Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research

“Politics is a secondary factor, and historical analysis suggests that one or two major catalysts typically drive bull markets.” Thielen explains how it would be absurd, “to assume that when Fed Chair Bernanke maintained low interest rates in 2011, your neighbor suddenly decided to use Bitcoin to buy contraband on the Silk Road exchange,” meaning looking for direct correlation between election outcomes and Bitcoin price reaction may be less than ideal. 

Markus Thielen, CEO at 10x Research

The executive argues that the primary driver of the Bitcoin rally is the institutional adoption of BTC, sparked by BlackRock’s application for a Spot BTC ETF earlier this year. 

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.



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$2 Million PEPE Purchase Sees 105 Billion Tokens Snapped Up

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They say journalists never truly clock out. But for Christian, that’s not just a metaphor, it’s a lifestyle. By day, he navigates the ever-shifting tides of the cryptocurrency market, wielding words like a seasoned editor and crafting articles that decipher the jargon for the masses. When the PC goes on hibernate mode, however, his pursuits take a more mechanical (and sometimes philosophical) turn.

Christian’s journey with the written word began long before the age of Bitcoin. In the hallowed halls of academia, he honed his craft as a feature writer for his college paper. This early love for storytelling paved the way for a successful stint as an editor at a data engineering firm, where his first-month essay win funded a months-long supply of doggie and kitty treats – a testament to his dedication to his furry companions (more on that later).

Christian then roamed the world of journalism, working at newspapers in Canada and even South Korea. He finally settled down at a local news giant in his hometown in the Philippines for a decade, becoming a total news junkie. But then, something new caught his eye: cryptocurrency. It was like a treasure hunt mixed with storytelling – right up his alley!

So, he landed a killer gig at NewsBTC, where he’s one of the go-to guys for all things crypto. He breaks down this confusing stuff into bite-sized pieces, making it easy for anyone to understand (he salutes his management team for teaching him this skill).

Think Christian’s all work and no play? Not a chance! When he’s not at his computer, you’ll find him indulging his passion for motorbikes. A true gearhead, Christian loves tinkering with his bike and savoring the joy of the open road on his 320-cc Yamaha R3. Once a speed demon who hit 120mph (a feat he vowed never to repeat), he now prefers leisurely rides along the coast, enjoying the wind in his thinning hair.

Speaking of chill, Christian’s got a crew of furry friends waiting for him at home. Two cats and a dog. He swears cats are way smarter than dogs (sorry, Grizzly), but he adores them all anyway. Apparently, watching his pets just chillin’ helps him analyze and write meticulously formatted articles even better.

Here’s the thing about this guy: He works a lot, but he keeps himself fueled by enough coffee to make it through the day – and some seriously delicious (Filipino) food. He says a delectable meal is the secret ingredient to a killer article. And after a long day of crypto crusading, he unwinds with some rum (mixed with milk) while watching slapstick movies.

Looking ahead, Christian sees a bright future with NewsBTC. He says he sees himself privileged to be part of an awesome organization, sharing his expertise and passion with a community he values, and fellow editors – and bosses – he deeply respects.

So, the next time you tread into the world of cryptocurrency, remember the man behind the words – the crypto crusader, the grease monkey, and the feline philosopher, all rolled into one.



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Bitcoin Miner MARA Holdings Raises $1B To Buy More Bitcoin

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Bitcoin Miner MARA Holdings has raised approximately $1 billion through the sale of its convertible notes. The Bitcoin miner revealed that some of the proceeds from this sale would be used to buy more BTC, although they didn’t mention the exact amount.

Marathon Digital Raises $1B To Buy More Bitcoin

In a press release, the Bitcoin miner revealed that it had raised net proceeds of $980 million from its convertible notes sale after deducting the initial purchaser’s discounts and commissions but before the estimated offering expenses payable by the company.

This development is significant as MARA Holdings revealed that it will use some of the net proceeds to acquire additional BTC. It is worth mentioning that the Bitcoin miner already holds around 27,000 BTC and is the public company with the second-largest Bitcoin holdings.

This development comes as MARA also recently unveiled plans to raise $700m through convertible notes, which will mature in 2030. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin miner looks to be going head-to-head with MicroStrategy, which also recently upsized its private offering to $2.6 billion. The software company will use some of the proceeds to buy more BTC.

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Boluwatife Adeyemi

Boluwatife Adeyemi is a well-experienced crypto news writer and editor who has covered topics that cut across DeFi, NFTs, smart contracts, and blockchain interoperability, among others. Boluwatife has a knack for simplifying the most technical concepts and making it easy for crypto newbies to understand. Away from writing, He is an avid basketball lover and a part-time degen.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Analyst Says Six-Figure Bitcoin Price Incoming – But Warns One Factor Could Delay BTC Rally Till Next Year

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Analyst Benjamin Cowen is leaning bullish on Bitcoin (BTC) while warning that one factor could delay the flagship crypto asset from reaching $100,000 before the end of this year.

In an appearance on The David Lin Report, Cowen says that Bitcoin is primed to hit a six-figure price based on historical precedent.

“If you go look at like year-to-date return on investment (ROI)… and you average out all the prior halving years, we’re actually tracking it pretty closely. So if you average out 2012, 2016 and 2020 and then you overlay 2024, right now Bitcoin is at its average of prior halving years – so it’s basically 2x from the yearly open… the average of the other prior three halving years was also 2x from the yearly open.

You can see that the average from the yearly open by the end of the halving year for those was closer to 3x. So if Bitcoin can continue to follow the cyclical view, then it should be able to [reach $100,000].”

Cowen, however, says that a higher-than-expected unemployment rate could delay Bitcoin’s ascent to a six-figure price.

“I think the only thing that would prevent it from doing so would be labor market results that we’re going to get in two weeks.

So my base case is if the unemployment rate comes in low, let’s say it comes in at 4%, 4.1% maybe even 4.2%, would not be so bad. That would favor the cyclical view prevailing.

If it comes in really hot, for whatever reason, let’s say it comes in at 4.3% or 4.4%, then we might have to wait until 2025 for $100,000. That’s the way I see it right now.”

 

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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