As Bitcoin (BTC) grapples with a challenging market environment, it has struggled to regain momentum, hovering around the $53,000 and $60,000 levels for six consecutive weeks. 

After losing the crucial $70,000 threshold on August 1, the largest cryptocurrency remains at risk of further declines, particularly with the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting on September 18, where a 0.50% rate cut could significantly impact its price.

BTC’s Future Hangs In Balance

Recent insights from crypto analyst Doctor Profit suggest that the market is closely divided, with equal chances—50%—of a 0.25% or 0.50% rate cut. However, Doctor Profit is confident that the Fed will opt for the larger cut, citing a need for decisive action in the current economic climate. He notes, “A 0.25% cut is simply too little for where we are now.” 

Related Reading

The analyst argues that failing to implement a 0.50% cut could lead to market turmoil reminiscent of the “Blood Monday” experienced on August 5, which saw Bitcoin plummet to lows of $48,900, resulting in a nearly 25% price drop.

According to Doctor Profit, this could include acknowledging the Fed’s past strategies and an optimistic outlook for the economy, potentially paving the way for future rate cuts.

Given these potential scenarios, the analyst warns of the potential for market manipulation and “scam wicks” that could mislead investors on both sides of the trade. In addition, geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Israel-Lebanon situation, add another layer of complexity and may exacerbate market fears and volatility.

Despite the short-term risks, Doctor Profit remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, particularly through the end of Q3 2025.

The analyst believes that any short-term panic will ultimately be countered by a return to expansive monetary policy, as seen in the recent influx of USDT and other cash injections into the market. He highlights that once the rate cuts are implemented, the Fed’s money printing will likely resume, providing a foundation for recovery.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Looking deeper into the current price action, analyst Ali Martinez recently noted that Bitcoin trades within a parallel channel on the hourly chart. 

Martinez contends that Bitcoin could bounce back to the middle or upper levels if the lower border holds, targeting $60,200 or $62,000. However, Martinez warns that a break below the support level of $58,100 could lead to a drop towards $55,000.

Related Reading

Zooming out to a broader perspective, Martinez also highlights concerning trends in Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Momentum. Since breaking below the $66,750 mark in June, Bitcoin has been in a downtrend, and this negative trend has yet to show signs of reversal. 

To invalidate this indicator, BTC needs to break above this level and reclaim it as support, which could signal the continuation of an expected rally towards the all-time high of $73,700 reached in March this year.

When writing, the largest cryptocurrency on the market is trading at $58,440, recording losses of over 3% in the 24-hour. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas has asserted that BlackRock and the Bitcoin ETFs saved the BTC from massive decline. The analyst’s statement related to rumors that the world’s largest asset manager receives Bitcoin IOUs from the Coinbase crypto exchange. A popular crypto analyst has outlined a theory suggesting that the asset manager may be shorting BTC with these IOUs, leading to the coin’s decline at different times.

BlackRock And Bitcoin ETFs Saved Bitcoin Price

Balchunas stated in an X post that BlackRock and the Bitcoin ETFs repeatedly saved the BTC price “from the abyss.” The analyst made this statement to rebut arguments that traditional investors were to blame every time the coin declined. He added that he understands why these exist, as people want to “scapegoat the ETFs” because they find it hard to believe that the native HODLers could be the sellers.

However, Eric Balchunas claimed that these Bitcoin natives are indeed the sellers. He remarked that they are sabotaging the Bitcoin price, not traditional investors. Popular Bitcoin analyst Ali Martinez recently revealed how BTC miners had sold over 30,000 $BTC in three days, proving Balchunas’s point that the “call is coming from inside the house.”

#Bitcoin miners have sold over 30,000 $BTC in the last 72 hours, worth around $1.71 billion! pic.twitter.com/OuaiIo7QZ9

— Ali (@ali_charts) September 11, 2024

It is also worth mentioning that these Bitcoin ETFs contributed significantly to the BTC price reaching a new all-time high (ATH) of $73,000 in March earlier this year. These funds witnessed impressive net inflows upon launch, causing new money to flow into the BTC ecosystem and spark a rise in its price. BlackRock, in particular, has continued to hold on to its coins, recording only three daily net outflows since its January launch.

Coinbase Helping TradFi To Supress Bitcoin

There have been rumors that Coinbase is writing Bitcoin IOUs for BlackRock, leading to price suppression. Crypto analyst Tyler Durden is one of those who have continued to make such allegations. Earlier this year, the analyst explained that the crypto exchange’s IOUs to the asset manager means they can borrow as much Bitcoin to short and not show proof that they hold the coin 1:1.

I told everyone I went through the chain – I mean it’s a public ledger literally anyone can do it – Coinbase are writing IOUs for Blackrock.

Now everyone is waking up and hopefully Coinbase has a bank run.

Baldilocks is anti bitcoin. pic.twitter.com/GsnTSg0y6Q

— Tyler (@TylerDurden) September 14, 2024

To further prove his point that the world’s largest asset manager was suppressing BTC price with Coinbase’s help, Durden alluded to data from Cryptoquant. He claimed the US crypto exchange was the biggest buyer and seller on every bottom and top in this range. The analyst also opined that the asset manager will put a top on the market at some point and crash it or create a major pullback.

Meanwhile, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong responded to Durden’s allegations, clarified how ETF mints and burns are processed, and ultimately settled on-chain. He indicated there was no foul play, noting that they are audited and these reports are available to everyone. Armstrong added that they had no right to share the addresses of their institutional clients, including BlackRock.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $60,000. As Coingape reported, the projected rate cuts next week could benefit the BTC price. Historically, this macro event is bullish for the coin.

✓ Share:

Boluwatife Adeyemi

Boluwatife Adeyemi is a well-experienced crypto news writer and editor who has covered topics that cut across DeFi, NFTs, smart contracts, and blockchain interoperability, among others. Boluwatife has a knack for simplifying the most technical concepts and making it easy for crypto newbies to understand. Away from writing, Boluwatife is an avid basketball lover and a part-time degen.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.