Markets
Bitcoin ETFs Add $250 Million in Surge Ahead of Expected Rate Cut
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2 months agoon
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adminBitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are seeing a fresh surge of interest.
Figures shared by blockchain data firm Arkham Intelligence show that the American funds collectively added approximately $250 million worth of Bitcoin on Monday, the most added in a single day for more than a month.
Following the jump, the price of Bitcoin itself touched over $61,000 per coin on Tuesday for the first time in September.
Why the sudden spike of demand?
First, the basics: ETFs are simply funds that hold an asset—in this case, Bitcoin—and allow investors to get exposure to it via shares that trade on a traditional stock exchange.
When the new funds receive Bitcoin, it is due to investor demand: People or entities are buying shares which track the underlying price of the asset, and the operators of the funds that hold the crypto then make the buys on behalf of the investors.
Top asset managers such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale launched the products in January after getting approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
And they were wildly popular over the first few months, with billions of dollars in investor cash hitting the products. But demand slowed in recent months, thanks in part to worries over when the Federal Reserve would slash interest rates—and by how much.
Markets are expecting America’s central bank to cut rates tomorrow—but it has yet to be revealed how much borrowing costs will be lowered.
Some analysts have said that a large 50-basis point cut could come than a smaller, 25-basis point one—leading some investors to up their risk appetite, experts told Decrypt.
“I think this is in direct response to the increasing likelihood of a 50-basis point rate cut rather than a 25-basis point cut,” CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill said.
“We saw the inflows really pick up on Friday last week,” he added, “when comments were made by various Fed members alluding to the 50bp cut and expressing a much more dovish tone.”
Investors snapping up shares of the new Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year led to a price boom, with the biggest virtual coin hitting a fresh all-time high of $73,737 in March. The asset has seen volatility since then, and remains about 18% down from that peak.
However, the tide appears to be turning: CoinShares data released Monday showed that $436 million hit crypto investment funds last week, and most of that went to Bitcoin ETFs. That came after a streak in which investors cashed out a huge $1.2 billion from Bitcoin funds.
Will tomorrow’s expected announcement give Bitcoin another nudge up the price chart?
Edited by Andrew Hayward
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The Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator: How to Accurately Time Market Cycle Peaks
Published
2 hours agoon
November 22, 2024By
adminThe Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator has gained legendary status in the Bitcoin community for its uncanny accuracy in identifying market cycle peaks. Historically, it has timed every single Bitcoin cycle high with remarkable precision—often within just three days. Could it work its magic again this cycle? Let’s dive deeper into how it works and its significance in navigating Bitcoin’s market cycles.
What is the Pi Cycle Top Indicator?
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is a tool designed to identify Bitcoin’s market cycle tops. Created by Philip Swift, Managing Director of Bitcoin Magazine Pro in April 2019, this indicator uses a combination of two moving averages to forecast cycle highs:
- 111-Day Moving Average (111DMA): Represents the shorter-term price trend.
- 350-Day Moving Average x 2 (350DMA x 2): A multiple of the 350DMA, which captures longer-term trends.
When the 111DMA rises sharply and crosses above the 350DMA x 2, it historically coincides with Bitcoin’s market cycle peak.
The Mathematics Behind the Name
Interestingly, the ratio of 350 to 111 equals approximately 3.153—remarkably close to Pi (3.142). This mathematical quirk gives the indicator its name and highlights the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price action over time.
Why Has It Been So Accurate?
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator has been effective in predicting the peaks of Bitcoin’s three most recent market cycles. Its ability to pinpoint the absolute tops reflects Bitcoin’s historically predictable cycles during its adoption growth phase. The indicator essentially captures the point where the market becomes overheated, as reflected by the steep rise of the 111DMA surpassing the 350DMA x 2.
How Can Investors Use This Indicator?
For investors, the Pi Cycle Top Indicator serves as a warning sign that the market may be approaching unsustainable levels. Historically, when the indicator flashes, it has been advantageous to sell Bitcoin near the top of the market cycle. This makes it a valuable tool for those seeking to maximize gains and minimize losses.
However, as Bitcoin matures and integrates further into the global financial system—bolstered by developments like Bitcoin ETFs and institutional adoption—the effectiveness of this indicator may diminish. It remains most relevant during Bitcoin’s early adoption phase.
A Glimpse Into the Future
The big question now is: will the Pi Cycle Top Indicator remain accurate in this cycle? With Bitcoin entering a new era of adoption and market dynamics, its cyclical patterns may evolve. Yet, this tool has proven its worth repeatedly over Bitcoin’s first 15 years, offering investors a reliable gauge of market tops.
Final Thoughts
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is a testament to Bitcoin’s cyclical nature and the power of mathematical models in understanding its price behavior. While its past accuracy has been unparalleled, only time will tell if it can once again predict Bitcoin’s next market cycle peak. For now, it remains an indispensable tool for those navigating the thrilling highs and lows of Bitcoin.
Explore the full chart and stay informed.
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Bitcoin Nears $100,000 As Trump Council Expected To Implement BTC Reserve
Published
10 hours agoon
November 22, 2024By
adminWhat an enormous day it has been today.
Gary Gensler officially announced that he is stepping down from his position as Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and minutes later, Reuters reported that Donald Trump’s “crypto council” is expected to “establish Trump’s promised bitcoin reserve.” A bitcoin reserve, that would see the United States purchase 200,000 bitcoin per year, for five years until it has bought 1,000,000 bitcoin.
Right after both of those, Bitcoin continued its upward momentum and broke $99,000, with $100,000 feeling like it can happen at any second now.
It is hard to contain my bullishness thinking about the United States purchasing 200,000 BTC per year. They essentially have to compete with everyone else in the world who is also accumulating bitcoin and attempting to front run them. There are only 21 million bitcoin and that is a LOT of demand.
To put this into context, so far this year the US spot bitcoin ETFs have accumulated a combined total of over 1 million BTC. At the time of launch the price was ~$44,000 and now bitcoin is practically at $100,000. And that’s all ETFs combined. Imagine what will happen when just one entity wants to buy a total of 1 million coins, having to compete with everyone else accumulating large amounts as well?
I mean MicroStrategy literally just completed another $3 BILLION raise to buy more bitcoin, and will continue raising until it purchases $42 billion more in bitcoin. The United States are most likely going to be purchasing their coins (if this legislation is officially signed into law) at very high prices. The demand is insane and only rising in the foreseeable future.
With two months left to go until Trump officially takes office, it remains to be seen if this bill becomes law, but at the moment things are looking really good. As Senator Cynthia Lummis stated, “This is our Louisiana Purchase moment!” and would be an absolutely historic moment for Bitcoin, Bitcoiners, and the future financial dominance of the United States of America.
This is the solution.
This is the answer.
This is our Louisiana Purchase moment!#Bitcoin2024 pic.twitter.com/RNEiLaB16U
— Senator Cynthia Lummis (@SenLummis) July 27, 2024
This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
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Markets
The Chart That Shows Bitcoin’s Bull Run Won’t Stop at $100,000
Published
18 hours agoon
November 21, 2024By
adminPeak Bitcoin, hardly.
As I wrote in Forbes in 2021, the world is waking up to a new reality in regards to Bitcoin – the unlikely truth that Bitcoin’s programming has cyclical effects on its economy.
This has led to at least 4 distinct market cycles where Bitcoin has been branded a bubble, skeptics have rung their hands, and each time, Bitcoin recovers more or less 4 years later to set new all-time highs above its previously “sky-high” valuation.
I personally watched Bitcoin go from $50 to $1,300 in 2013. Then, from $1,000 to $20,000 in 2017, and I watched it go from $20,000 to $70,000 in 2021.
So, I’m just here to relate that, from my past experience, this market cycle is just heating up.
For those who have been in Bitcoin, there’s one tried-and-true and that’s Google Search. As long as I’ve been in Bitcoin, this has been the best indicator of the strength of the market.
Search is low, you’re probably in a bear market. Search heading back to all-time highs? This means new entrants are getting engaged, learning about Bitcoin, and becoming active buyers.
Remember, this is a habit change. Bitcoin HODLers are slowing shifting their assets to a wholly new economy. So, Google Trends search then, represents a snapshot of Bitcoin’s immigration. It shows how many new sovereign citizens are moving their money here.
And it’s something that all who are worried about whether bitcoin’s price topping out in 2024 should pay attention to.
Last year was the Bitcoin halving, and historically, the year following previous halvings has led to price appreciation. Maybe you’re tempted to think, “this time is different” – not me. I look at search and I see a chart that continues to accelerate into price discovery. Trust me when I say no one I know is selling bitcoin.
As shown above, buyer interest is accelerating, and these new buyers have to buy that Bitcoin from somewhere. Add nation states, US states, and a coming Trump administration set to ease the burden on the industry?
Well, I think the chart above says it all really.
This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
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