Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen is forecasting that Ethereum could be in the process of carving cycle lows against Bitcoin (ETH/BTC).

In a video update, Cowen tells his 813,000 YouTube subscribers that based on historical precedent, the bottom for the Ethereum/Bitcoin pair is close at hand.

“One of the things I have mentioned before is the 2016 and 2019 fractals. If you look at either of these fractals, it would suggest that the bottom for Ethereum/Bitcoin is going to happen relatively soon.”

Looking closer at the price action of ETH/BTC, Cowen says the pair’s current market structure appears to be following in the footsteps of its 2016 and 2019 price action. The analyst says that in this cycle, ETH/BTC printed a lower high and consolidated above the range lows for a time before breaking down – very similar to what happened during the 2016 and 2019 cycles.

Cowen adds that the timing for the ETH/BTC bottom appears to be closely following the 2016 and 2019 cycles as well.

“It took about seven weeks for Ethereum/Bitcoin to bottom – that was in 2016.

Now if you look at 2019, after it broke the range low, it took about eight weeks to bottom. So you have seven weeks and then you have eight weeks. So how long has it been?

It looks like it broke below its [range low] the week of July 22nd. So it’s already been eight weeks, it’s been eight weeks already.

In terms of time, it would be dangerous to assume that it’s going to go a lot lower. It could go a little lower but it would be dangerous to assume it’s going to go a lot lower in terms of time.

Now when does it actually bottom? It could be this week, it could be next week. I don’t really know. But my guess is that it’s going to happen sometime soon.”

At time of writing, ETH/BTC is trading for 0.0405 BTC worth $2,544.

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The Bitcoin price has surged significantly since the US Federal Reserve’s 50 basis points (bps) interest rate cut. However, there are projections that the flagship’s price rally may be shortlived and that a price crash is imminent. Crypto analyst CrediBULL Crypto has predicted that the BTC price could drop to as low as $49,000 soon enough.

The Bitcoin Price Might Crash Again

CrediBULL Crypto predicted in an X post that BTC could drop below $49,000 soon enough. Based on his analysis, he expects the flagship crypto to rise to a local top of $70,000 and then suffer another flush to “ideally under” $49,000 before the actual breakout begins.

As Coingape reported, the US Fed rate cut is one of the things that could spark a Bitcoin price rally to $70,000. However, a price crash could follow shortly after just like CrediBULL crypto warned. Analyst Ali Martinez also recently hinted that the flagship crypto might soon suffer downward pressure.

He stated that nearly $2 billion in Bitcoin futures contracts have been opened over the last three days, which could lead to a potential long squeeze. Meanwhile, CrediBULL alluded to the “Binance spot plunge production team,” which he claimed had arrived to make the Bitcoin price crash manifestation come true.

It is also worth mentioning that Martinez revealed that BTC was again testing the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). He noted that this was a critical level for confirming the bull run. Historically, Bitcoin’s failure to reclaim this level of support has led to “significant corrections.” The analyst added that a rejection could signal trouble for the flagship crypto.

Why A Price Crash Might Not Happen

Crypto analyst Bonk Guy has outlined why a Bitcoin price crash might not happen. He mentioned that the market is just weeks away from the fourth quarter of this year, which is seasonally the most bullish for risk assets.

Specifically, Bitcoin enjoys the most returns in Q4 of each year. Moreover, the flagship crypto has enjoyed positive monthly returns in October, November, and December of the last two halving years.

The analyst further mentioned that the US presidential election is 45 days away. Historically, Bitcoin enjoyed a price surge after past elections since the aftermath brings market certainty. There are projections that BTC price could reach $90,000 if Donald Trump wins.

Despite the crypto community favoring a Trump presidency, history shows that the flagship crypto could still rise no matter who wins. Moreover, Anthony Scaramucci revealed that he is helping Kamala Harris develop crypto policies, which is a positive for BTC.

Meanwhile, BONK Guy mentioned the FTX customers that are set to receive $16 billion in cash as their repayments following FTX’s collapse. This is bullish for the Bitcoin price since these users could allocate some of their repayments to the flagship crypto. These users receiving their repayments in cash also means that BTC won’t suffer any selling pressure from these customers like it did following the Mt. Gox repayments.

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Boluwatife Adeyemi

Boluwatife Adeyemi is a well-experienced crypto news writer and editor who has covered topics that cut across DeFi, NFTs, smart contracts, and blockchain interoperability, among others. Boluwatife has a knack for simplifying the most technical concepts and making it easy for crypto newbies to understand. Away from writing, He is an avid basketball lover and a part-time degen.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.