Since November 5, the day President-elect Donald Trump secured another term in office, Bitcoin has experienced a remarkable uptrend, reaching a new all-time high of $93,300. 

Since then, BTC has been trading within a narrow range between $89,000 and $92,000, positioning for a potential move toward the $100,000 milestone. This raises an intriguing question whether a price of $1 million per coin is feasible over the next decade.

A Long-Term Vision For Investors

Market expert VirtualBacon has conducted an in-depth analysis of these possibilities, delving into the numbers, trends, and catalysts that could propel Bitcoin to experience a surge of nearly 1,000% from its current price levels. 

Within the current market cycle, the expert forecasts that Bitcoin could hit $200,000 in the next one to two years. However, he notes that while this milestone is significant, altcoins may offer higher returns at a greater risk, often crashing by 80% to 90% in bear markets.

In contrast to altcoins, which face increasing regulatory scrutiny, Bitcoin stands out as a safer long-term investment. VirtualBacon argues that Bitcoin’s potential is not just confined to the next few years but spans a decade or more. 

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To understand why Bitcoin’s price could reach $1 million, VirtualBacon asserts that investors need to consider its fundamental utility as a store of value. Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins, its global accessibility, and its resistance to censorship and manipulation make it a compelling alternative to traditional financial assets. 

The expert suggests that if Bitcoin is to become recognized as the digital gold of the 21st century, reaching a market capitalization that rivals gold’s estimated $13 trillion is not merely a theoretical possibility but “a logical outcome.”

Key drivers for this potential growth include increasing participation from asset managers, corporate treasuries, central banks, and wealthy individuals. Recent data indicates that Bitcoin ETFs have seen record inflows, with $1 billion invested last week, reflecting growing institutional confidence. 

Additionally, discussions among corporations, such as Microsoft considering Bitcoin reserves, further enhance its strategic value. Wealthy individuals are also beginning to adopt Bitcoin as a standard portfolio allocation, with even a modest 1% investment becoming commonplace among billionaires.

What Does Bitcoin Need To Reach $1 Million?

For Bitcoin to reach the $1 million mark, two critical factors must be analyzed: global wealth growth and portfolio allocation. VirtualBacon notes that in 2022, total global wealth was estimated at $454 trillion, and projections suggest this could grow to $750 trillion by 2034. 

Currently, gold holds approximately 3.9% of global wealth, while Bitcoin is at a mere 0.35%. If Bitcoin’s allocation in global portfolios rose to just 3%, still significantly below gold’s share, its market cap could soar to $20 trillion, pushing the price to $1 million per coin.

Historically, gold’s market cap saw significant growth following the launch of exchange-traded funds in 2004, with its portfolio allocation increasing from 1.67% to 4.74% over the next decade. 

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If Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory, its allocation could rise from 0.35% to 1.05% or more, translating to a market cap of approximately $7.92 trillion, equating to about $395,000 per Bitcoin. Therefore, reaching $1 million doesn’t require Bitcoin to surpass gold; it must capture about 57% of gold’s projected market cap by 2034.

With gold representing 4.7% of global portfolios compared to Bitcoin’s 0.35%, a modest increase in Bitcoin’s share of global wealth to 3%—just 60% of gold’s allocation—could “easily” result in a $20 trillion market cap and a $1 million price point.

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $92,240, up 7% every week. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee has emphasized that Bitcoin’s recent surge could mark the beginning of a sustained rally. With Bitcoin’s price climbing 34% in November and currently trading near $91,395, Tom Lee outlined several factors suggesting the cryptocurrency’s upward momentum may persist.

Tom Lee Highlights Why Bitcoin Price Rally May Continue

Speaking in an interview with CNBC, Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee noted that Bitcoin’s recent price gains are supported by strong market demand and improving technical indicators. 

He pointed out that Bitcoin price has entered a consolidation phase near $90,000, which is supported by a series of bullish factors, including increased investor interest and the cryptocurrency’s historical performance during similar market conditions.

According to Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, the current price rally aligns with broader trends in risk assets, with Bitcoin showing resilience amid market corrections. He stated, “Most major indices, including the NASDAQ and S&P 500, have pulled back to key support levels, which often provides a foundation for renewed growth. Bitcoin’s technical setup appears similar, suggesting the possibility of further gains.”

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee also connected Bitcoin’s performance to broader market trends, particularly the “Trump trade.” He remarked that policies like ‘D.O.G.E’ emphasizing deregulation, lower taxes, and reduced government spending could benefit risk assets, including Bitcoin price.

He added that sectors like small-cap stocks and financials are also seeing renewed interest as investors anticipate policy clarity following recent political developments. This optimism is bolstered by expectations that the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening cycle is nearing its end, which could drive demand for both traditional and digital assets.

Bitcoin as a Strategic Asset Amid Economic Concerns

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee also highlighted Bitcoin’s potential role as a strategic asset in addressing economic challenges. While he did not directly revisit his earlier suggestion that Bitcoin could serve as a “treasury reserve asset,” Lee emphasized its appeal as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty. 

He explained that ongoing discussions about U.S. monetary policy, including the Federal Reserve’s potential slowdown in interest rate hikes, are contributing to a favorable environment for Bitcoin.

“When uncertainty clears around monetary policy, demand for Bitcoin and other risk assets could increase further,” he noted.

During the interview, Tom Lee addressed the ongoing discussions surrounding the U.S. Treasury Secretary position under the Biden administration. Among the names under consideration hinted at by Elon Musk is Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick, an advocated for Bitcoin’s recognition as a commodity akin to gold and oil.

Institutional and Retail Momentum Behind Bitcoin’s Growth

Institutional and retail participation has played a key role in Bitcoin price recent surge. Data from CryptoQuant indicates a spike in Coinbase’s premium index earlier in the rally, signaling heightened interest from U.S. retail investors. However, the index has since cooled, suggesting that retail activity has slowed in the short term.

Technical analyst Coosh Alemzadeh has observed patterns in Bitcoin’s chart that indicate the potential for further growth. According to Alemzadeh, Bitcoin is currently in the fifth wave of an Elliott Wave cycle, which typically signals the steepest part of a price rally. His projection suggests Bitcoin’s price could reach between $130,000 and $145,000 by late 2024.

Despite the optimistic outlook, experts caution that Bitcoin’s volatility remains high. The success rate for bullish patterns like the one currently forming is only around 54%, highlighting the need for measured optimism among traders.

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Kelvin Munene Murithi

Kelvin is a distinguished writer with expertise in crypto and finance, holding a Bachelor’s degree in Actuarial Science. Known for his incisive analysis and insightful content, he possesses a strong command of English and excels in conducting thorough research and delivering timely cryptocurrency market updates.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.