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Bitcoin Price & Crypto Markets Comeback Likely: Matrixport

Published

4 months ago

on


The crypto markets are in a muted volatility phase, with Bitcoin (BTC) price hovering sideways. This outlook, while true, might end in roughly a week or two, triggering a comeback for both BTC and altcoins. 

Why is Bitcoin Price Down?

There are four reasons for the recent descent in Bitcoin price:

  1. Recession fears triggered by uncertain macroeconomic conditions.
  2. Geopolitical tensions due to the war between Palestine and Israel.
  3. The US Government selling BTC.
  4. A drop in Donald Trump’s odds against Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential elections. 

As of August 19, Bitcoin price slid 1.62% and is currently trading at $58,355. Investors can expect a relief bounce in crypto markets as BTC trades above the previous week’s Value Area Low (pwVAL) of $57,958. Investors can expect the pioneer crypto to tag the previous week’s Point of Control (POC) at $59,384. 

While the start of the week might seem bearish, investors can expect Bitcoin price to climb nearly 2% and form a local top around $59,600. In an optimistic case, BTC might retest the $60,000 psychological level. 

BTC price 1-hour chartBTC price 1-hour chart
BTC price 1-hour chart

Crypto services firm Matrixport recently posted their thoughts on Bitcoin price and forecast the chance for a comeback in the next few weeks. Their thesis is based on the connection between BTC funding rate and crypto trading volumes in Korea. 

Matrixport added that Korean traders play a significant role in the crypto markets. The firm suggested that the funding rate is likely to crash even more as the Korean trading volumes have dipped below the $1 billion mark for three consecutive days.

Bitcoin Funding Rate vs. Korean Trading VolumeBitcoin Funding Rate vs. Korean Trading Volume
Bitcoin Funding Rate vs. Korean Trading Volume

But one key thing Matrixport points out is that the upcoming Korean Blockchain Week that spans the first week of September could play a role in reviving the crypto market slump and trading activity.

Crypto Market Prepares To Buy The Dip

According to data from Santiment, there was a massive spike in stablecoin deposits on August 5, when Bitcoin price crashed to $48,914. This uptick showcases that investors are preparing to buy the dips. 

Furthermore, the supply of Tether (USDT) on exchanges has spiked from 15.68 billion to 16.72 billion in the past week. The 6.63% increase adds credence that investors are waiting to scoop BTC and other altcoins should the crypto market see a further decline. 

BTC price vs Active Stablecoin Deposits, Tether (USDT) Supply on ExchangesBTC price vs Active Stablecoin Deposits, Tether (USDT) Supply on Exchanges
BTC price vs Active Stablecoin Deposits, Tether (USDT) Supply on Exchanges

All in all, investors can expect Bitcoin price to make a strong comeback in the coming days, bringing the rest of the altcoins up with it. 

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Bitcoin’s price is down due to four main reasons: recession fears, geopolitical tensions, the US Government selling BTC, and a drop in Donald Trump’s odds against Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential elections.

Indicators such as the connection between BTC funding rate and crypto trading volumes in Korea, the upcoming Korean Blockchain Week, and the spike in stablecoin deposits and Tether (USDT) supply on exchanges suggest a potential comeback for Bitcoin and altcoins.

Investors can expect Bitcoin’s price to climb nearly 2% and form a local top around $59,600, with a potential retest of the $60,000 psychological level. Additionally, a strong comeback in Bitcoin’s price could bring the rest of the altcoins up with it.

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Akash Girimath

Akash Girimath is an engineer at core, but is interested in the chaos of the financial markets. Akash is senior report and analyst who also trades cryptos on a regular basis and maintains a small crypto fund for friends and family.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Bitcoin Magazine Pro

Exploring Six On-Chain Indicators to Understand the Bitcoin Market Cycle

Published

2 days ago

on

December 21, 2024

By


With Bitcoin now making six-figure territory feel normal and higher prices a seeming inevitability, the analysis of key on-chain data provides valuable insights into the underlying health of the market. By understanding these metrics, investors can better anticipate price movements and prepare for potential market peaks or even any upcoming retracements.

Terminal Price

The Terminal Price metric, which incorporates the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) while factoring in Bitcoin’s supply, has historically been a reliable indicator for predicting Bitcoin cycle peaks. Coin Days Destroyed measures the velocity of coins being transferred, considering both the holding duration and the quantity of Bitcoin moved.

Figure 1: Bitcoin Terminal Price has surpassed $185,000.

View Live Chart 🔍

Currently, the terminal price has surpassed $185,000 and is likely to rise toward $200,000 as the cycle progresses. With Bitcoin already breaking $100,000, this suggests we may still have several months of positive price action ahead.

Puell Multiple

The Puell Multiple evaluates daily miner revenue (in USD) relative to its 365-day moving average. After the halving event, miners experienced a sharp drop in revenue, creating a period of consolidation.

Figure 2: Puell Multiple has climbed above 1.00.

View Live Chart 🔍

Now, the Puell Multiple has climbed back above 1, signaling a return to profitability for miners. Historically, surpassing this threshold has indicated the later stages of a bull cycle, often marked by exponential price rallies. A similar pattern was observed during all previous bull runs.

MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-Score measures the market value relative to the realized value (average cost basis of Bitcoin holders). Standardized into a Z-Score to account for the asset’s volatility, it’s been highly accurate in identifying cycle peaks and bottoms.

Figure 3: MVRV-Z Score still considerably below where previous peaks have occurred.

View Live Chart 🔍

Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score remains below the overheated red zone with a value of around 3.00, signaling that there’s still room for growth. While diminishing peaks have been a trend in recent cycles, the Z-Score suggests that the market is far from reaching a euphoric top.

Active Address Sentiment

This metric tracks the 28-day percentage change in active network addresses alongside the price change over the same period. When price growth outpaces network activity, it suggests the market may be short-term overbought, as the positive price action may not be sustainable given network utilization.

Figure 4: AASI indicated overheated conditions above $100,000.

View Live Chart 🔍

Recent data shows a slight cooling after Bitcoin’s rapid climb from $50,000 to $100,000, indicating a healthy consolidation period. This pause is likely setting the stage for sustained long-term growth and does not indicate we should be medium to long-term bearish.

Spent Output Profit Ratio

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures realized profits from Bitcoin transactions. Recent data shows an uptick in profit-taking, potentially indicating we are entering the latter stages of the cycle.

Figure 5: Large SOPR clusters of profit taking.

View Live Chart 🔍

One caveat to consider is the growing use of Bitcoin ETFs and derivative products. Investors may be shifting from self-custody to ETFs for ease of use and tax advantages, which could influence SOPR values.

Value Days Destroyed

Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple expands on CDD by weighting larger, long-term holders. When this metric enters the overheated red zone, it often signals major price peaks as the market’s largest and most experienced participants begin cashing out.

Figure 6: VDD is warm but not too hot.

View Live Chart 🔍

While Bitcoin’s current VDD levels indicate a slightly overheated market, history suggests it could sustain this range for months before a peak. For example, in 2017, VDD indicated overbought conditions nearly a year before the cycle’s top.

Conclusion

Taken together, these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is entering the latter stages of its bull market. While some indicators point to short-term cooling or slight overextension, most highlight substantial remaining upside throughout 2025. Key resistance levels for this cycle may emerge between $150,000 and $200,000, with metrics like SOPR and VDD providing clearer signals as we approach the peak.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: What’s Happening On-chain: Bitcoin Update

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.



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Analyst

Here’s Why The Bitcoin Price Continues To Hold Steady Between $96,000 And $98,000

Published

3 days ago

on

December 20, 2024

By



Este artículo también está disponible en español.

The Bitcoin price has dropped below the $100,000 psychological level and is now holding between the $96,000 and $98,000 range. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez provided insights into why Bitcoin could be holding well within this range. 

Why The Bitcoin Price Is Holding Steady Between $96,000 And $98,000

In an X post, Ali Martinez noted that one of the most important support levels for the Bitcoin price is between $98,830 and $95,830, where 1.09 wallets bought over 1.16 million BTC. This explains why Bitcoin is holding steady between $96,000 and $98,000 as investors who bought between this level continue to provide huge support for the flagship crypto. 

As Martinez suggested, it is important for these holders to continue to hold steady as a wave of sell-offs could send the Bitcoin price tumbling even below $90,000. The flagship crypto dropped below $100,000 following the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell’s recent speech, in which he hinted at a hawkish stance from the US Central Bank. 

This sparked a massive wave of sell-offs, as a Hawkish Fed paints a bearish picture for risk assets like Bitcoin. However, despite the Bitcoin price drop below, most Bitcoin holders remain in profit, which is a positive for the flagship crypto. IntoTheBlock data shows that 86% of Bitcoin holders are in the money, 4% are out of the money, and 9% are at the money.

These Bitcoin holders still seem bullish on the leading crypto as they continue to accumulate more BTC. In an X post, Ali Martinez stated that so far in December, 74,052 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges, and this trend doesn’t seem to be slowing down. 

Bitcoin priceS
Source: X

Traders Anticipate A Bullish Reversal 

Ali Martinez suggested that crypto traders anticipate a bullish reversal for the Bitcoin price from its current level. This came as he revealed that traders on Binance nailed the top, with 62.17% shorting Bitcoin while it was trading at $108,000. Now, Martinez stated that sentiment has flipped, with 55.44% of these trading now longing dips below $96,000. 

Bitcoin price 2
Source: X

Meanwhile, it is crucial for the Bitcoin price to hold this $96,000, as Martinez warned that if BTC loses this support, it could drop below $90,000. The analyst stated that based on the Fibonacci level, if Bitcoin loses $96,000, the next point of focus becomes $90,000 and $85,000. Meanwhile, from a bullish perspective, crypto analyst Justin Bennett suggested that the $110,000 target is still in focus for the Bitcoin price.  

Bitcoin price 3
Source: X

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $97,000, down over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. 

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com
BTC price drops to $93,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com



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Bitcoin Magazine Pro

Exploring Five On-Chain Indicators to Understand the Bitcoin Market Cycle

Published

3 days ago

on

December 20, 2024

By


With Bitcoin now making six-figure territory feel normal and higher prices a seeming inevitability, the analysis of key on-chain data provides valuable insights into the underlying health of the market. By understanding these metrics, investors can better anticipate price movements and prepare for potential market peaks or even any upcoming retracements.

Terminal Price

The Terminal Price metric, which incorporates the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) while factoring in Bitcoin’s supply, has historically been a reliable indicator for predicting Bitcoin cycle peaks. Coin Days Destroyed measures the velocity of coins being transferred, considering both the holding duration and the quantity of Bitcoin moved.

Figure 1: Bitcoin Terminal Price has surpassed $185,000.

View Live Chart 🔍

Currently, the terminal price has surpassed $185,000 and is likely to rise toward $200,000 as the cycle progresses. With Bitcoin already breaking $100,000, this suggests we may still have several months of positive price action ahead.

Puell Multiple

The Puell Multiple evaluates daily miner revenue (in USD) relative to its 365-day moving average. After the halving event, miners experienced a sharp drop in revenue, creating a period of consolidation.

Figure 2: Puell Multiple has climbed above 1.00.

View Live Chart 🔍

Now, the Puell Multiple has climbed back above 1, signaling a return to profitability for miners. Historically, surpassing this threshold has indicated the later stages of a bull cycle, often marked by exponential price rallies. A similar pattern was observed during all previous bull runs.

MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-Score measures the market value relative to the realized value (average cost basis of Bitcoin holders). Standardized into a Z-Score to account for the asset’s volatility, it’s been highly accurate in identifying cycle peaks and bottoms.

Figure 3: MVRV-Z Score still considerably below where previous peaks have occurred.

View Live Chart 🔍

Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score remains below the overheated red zone with a value of around 3.00, signaling that there’s still room for growth. While diminishing peaks have been a trend in recent cycles, the Z-Score suggests that the market is far from reaching a euphoric top.

Active Address Sentiment

This metric tracks the 28-day percentage change in active network addresses alongside the price change over the same period. When price growth outpaces network activity, it suggests the market may be short-term overbought, as the positive price action may not be sustainable given network utilization.

Figure 4: AASI indicated overheated conditions above $100,000.

View Live Chart 🔍

Recent data shows a slight cooling after Bitcoin’s rapid climb from $50,000 to $100,000, indicating a healthy consolidation period. This pause is likely setting the stage for sustained long-term growth and does not indicate we should be medium to long-term bearish.

Spent Output Profit Ratio

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures realized profits from Bitcoin transactions. Recent data shows an uptick in profit-taking, potentially indicating we are entering the latter stages of the cycle.

Figure 5: Large SOPR clusters of profit taking.

View Live Chart 🔍

One caveat to consider is the growing use of Bitcoin ETFs and derivative products. Investors may be shifting from self-custody to ETFs for ease of use and tax advantages, which could influence SOPR values.

Value Days Destroyed

Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple expands on CDD by weighting larger, long-term holders. When this metric enters the overheated red zone, it often signals major price peaks as the market’s largest and most experienced participants begin cashing out.

Figure 6: VDD is warm but not too hot.

View Live Chart 🔍

While Bitcoin’s current VDD levels indicate a slightly overheated market, history suggests it could sustain this range for months before a peak. For example, in 2017, VDD indicated overbought conditions nearly a year before the cycle’s top.

Conclusion

Taken together, these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is entering the latter stages of its bull market. While some indicators point to short-term cooling or slight overextension, most highlight substantial remaining upside throughout 2025. Key resistance levels for this cycle may emerge between $150,000 and $200,000, with metrics like SOPR and VDD providing clearer signals as we approach the peak.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: What’s Happening On-chain: Bitcoin Update

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.



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