Bitcoin price
Bitcoin Price Falters At $64K, Chinese Stocks Tumble, What’s Next for BTC?
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3 months agoon
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adminWith the recent spurt of bullish momentum, Bitcoin (BTC) retested the $64K hurdle but failed to sustain it. As a result, BTC is retracing. The daily chart shows a bearish outlook for Bitcoin price that could undo the past week’s gains.
Bitcoin Price Stumbles At $64K
Crypto markets enjoyed bullish sentiment in the past week as Bitcoin price hit $64K over the weekend. This enthusiasm continued into the weekday as BTC saw another buying spike in the US trading session. In hindsight, the uptick pushed Bitcoin deep into the $64K territory, forming a local top and leading to a 3.49% crash.
As of Tuesday, October 8, Bitcoin price is up 0.58% and remains indecisive.
Let’s explore why BTC could be crashing.
US-Listed Chinese Stocks Plunge After Historic Rally
The Chinese stock market saw a massive uptick after China announced aggressive stimulus plans in late September. This move caused a historic rally that led some of the Indices to observe the best performance since 2008. The stimulus-led rally pushed the CSI 300, HSI, and SSE Composite to rally 36% and 30%, respectively.
Additionally, US-listed Chinese stocks like Ali Baba, BiliBili, Baidu are down 8.9%, 17.2% and 10.1%, respectively. Analysts attribute the downfall of Chinese stocks to a loss of momentum. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI) tumbled 9.5%, which is the worst performance seen since 2008.
BTC Price Analysis: What’s next for Bitcoin?
The outlook for Bitcoin remains bearish is as explained in a previous CoinGape article. BTC price is following scenario one and has promptly retraced 3.54% after piercing the daily resistance zone, extending from $63.9K to $65K.
The RSI surged from around 50 to 65 but failed to hit the overbought zone of 70. As Bitcoin price trades around $62.5K, investors must pay attention to the $61.8K support level, which provided a massive foothold last week, facilitating a 4.25% rally.
According to the previous Bitcoin price forecast, a breakdown of this level seems likely and could trigger a 7% correction that stabilizes around the $57.9K to $57.2K support levels.
Popular Analyst Forecasts New ATH For BTC
While the short-term outlook remains bearish, Philip Swift, a popular crypto analyst, notes that timeframe analysis that compares BTC and global liquidity is noise. A zoomed-out chart shows that the global liquidity has hit a new ATH, which should lead to Bitcoin hitting a new high as well.
While the long-term outlook for Bitcoin price remains bullish, investors need to understand that the short-to-mid-term scenario remains indecisive due to multiple reasons – uncertain macroeconomic policies, geopolitical tensions, risk-off factors due to the war between Iran and Israel, and so on.
Regardless, a swift breakout and flip of the $65K hurdle into a support floor will suggest that bulls mean business. This move will invalidate the bearish thesis and propel BTC to $70K. In some cases, this development could also push Bitcoin price to set up a new all-time high.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Bitcoin price failed to sustain above the daily resistance zone, leading to a 3.54% correction, with potential further decline to $61.8K and $57.9K-$57.2K.
The downturn was attributed to loss of momentum after a historic rally following China’s stimulus plans, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI) tumbling 9.5%.
Long-term analysis suggests BTC could hit new all-time highs driven by global liquidity, with a potential breakout above $65K propelling prices to $70K or higher.
Akash Girimath
Akash Girimath, an engineer by training, has developed a deep fascination with the complexities of cryptocurrency markets. As a senior reporter and analyst, he specializes in crypto analysis and contributes his expertise to notable platforms such as AMBCrypto and FXStreet. In addition to his analytical work, Akash actively trades cryptocurrencies and manages a small crypto fund for friends and family. His role involves providing insightful market analysis and keeping readers informed about the latest trends in the crypto world. Follow Him on Youtube , X and LInkedIn
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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Exploring Six On-Chain Indicators to Understand the Bitcoin Market Cycle
Published
2 days agoon
December 21, 2024By
adminWith Bitcoin now making six-figure territory feel normal and higher prices a seeming inevitability, the analysis of key on-chain data provides valuable insights into the underlying health of the market. By understanding these metrics, investors can better anticipate price movements and prepare for potential market peaks or even any upcoming retracements.
Terminal Price
The Terminal Price metric, which incorporates the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) while factoring in Bitcoin’s supply, has historically been a reliable indicator for predicting Bitcoin cycle peaks. Coin Days Destroyed measures the velocity of coins being transferred, considering both the holding duration and the quantity of Bitcoin moved.
Currently, the terminal price has surpassed $185,000 and is likely to rise toward $200,000 as the cycle progresses. With Bitcoin already breaking $100,000, this suggests we may still have several months of positive price action ahead.
Puell Multiple
The Puell Multiple evaluates daily miner revenue (in USD) relative to its 365-day moving average. After the halving event, miners experienced a sharp drop in revenue, creating a period of consolidation.
Now, the Puell Multiple has climbed back above 1, signaling a return to profitability for miners. Historically, surpassing this threshold has indicated the later stages of a bull cycle, often marked by exponential price rallies. A similar pattern was observed during all previous bull runs.
MVRV Z-Score
The MVRV Z-Score measures the market value relative to the realized value (average cost basis of Bitcoin holders). Standardized into a Z-Score to account for the asset’s volatility, it’s been highly accurate in identifying cycle peaks and bottoms.
Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score remains below the overheated red zone with a value of around 3.00, signaling that there’s still room for growth. While diminishing peaks have been a trend in recent cycles, the Z-Score suggests that the market is far from reaching a euphoric top.
Active Address Sentiment
This metric tracks the 28-day percentage change in active network addresses alongside the price change over the same period. When price growth outpaces network activity, it suggests the market may be short-term overbought, as the positive price action may not be sustainable given network utilization.
Recent data shows a slight cooling after Bitcoin’s rapid climb from $50,000 to $100,000, indicating a healthy consolidation period. This pause is likely setting the stage for sustained long-term growth and does not indicate we should be medium to long-term bearish.
Spent Output Profit Ratio
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures realized profits from Bitcoin transactions. Recent data shows an uptick in profit-taking, potentially indicating we are entering the latter stages of the cycle.
One caveat to consider is the growing use of Bitcoin ETFs and derivative products. Investors may be shifting from self-custody to ETFs for ease of use and tax advantages, which could influence SOPR values.
Value Days Destroyed
Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple expands on CDD by weighting larger, long-term holders. When this metric enters the overheated red zone, it often signals major price peaks as the market’s largest and most experienced participants begin cashing out.
While Bitcoin’s current VDD levels indicate a slightly overheated market, history suggests it could sustain this range for months before a peak. For example, in 2017, VDD indicated overbought conditions nearly a year before the cycle’s top.
Conclusion
Taken together, these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is entering the latter stages of its bull market. While some indicators point to short-term cooling or slight overextension, most highlight substantial remaining upside throughout 2025. Key resistance levels for this cycle may emerge between $150,000 and $200,000, with metrics like SOPR and VDD providing clearer signals as we approach the peak.
For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: What’s Happening On-chain: Bitcoin Update
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
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Analyst
Here’s Why The Bitcoin Price Continues To Hold Steady Between $96,000 And $98,000
Published
3 days agoon
December 20, 2024By
adminThe Bitcoin price has dropped below the $100,000 psychological level and is now holding between the $96,000 and $98,000 range. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez provided insights into why Bitcoin could be holding well within this range.
Why The Bitcoin Price Is Holding Steady Between $96,000 And $98,000
In an X post, Ali Martinez noted that one of the most important support levels for the Bitcoin price is between $98,830 and $95,830, where 1.09 wallets bought over 1.16 million BTC. This explains why Bitcoin is holding steady between $96,000 and $98,000 as investors who bought between this level continue to provide huge support for the flagship crypto.
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As Martinez suggested, it is important for these holders to continue to hold steady as a wave of sell-offs could send the Bitcoin price tumbling even below $90,000. The flagship crypto dropped below $100,000 following the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell’s recent speech, in which he hinted at a hawkish stance from the US Central Bank.
This sparked a massive wave of sell-offs, as a Hawkish Fed paints a bearish picture for risk assets like Bitcoin. However, despite the Bitcoin price drop below, most Bitcoin holders remain in profit, which is a positive for the flagship crypto. IntoTheBlock data shows that 86% of Bitcoin holders are in the money, 4% are out of the money, and 9% are at the money.
These Bitcoin holders still seem bullish on the leading crypto as they continue to accumulate more BTC. In an X post, Ali Martinez stated that so far in December, 74,052 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges, and this trend doesn’t seem to be slowing down.
Traders Anticipate A Bullish Reversal
Ali Martinez suggested that crypto traders anticipate a bullish reversal for the Bitcoin price from its current level. This came as he revealed that traders on Binance nailed the top, with 62.17% shorting Bitcoin while it was trading at $108,000. Now, Martinez stated that sentiment has flipped, with 55.44% of these trading now longing dips below $96,000.
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Meanwhile, it is crucial for the Bitcoin price to hold this $96,000, as Martinez warned that if BTC loses this support, it could drop below $90,000. The analyst stated that based on the Fibonacci level, if Bitcoin loses $96,000, the next point of focus becomes $90,000 and $85,000. Meanwhile, from a bullish perspective, crypto analyst Justin Bennett suggested that the $110,000 target is still in focus for the Bitcoin price.
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $97,000, down over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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Bitcoin Magazine Pro
Exploring Five On-Chain Indicators to Understand the Bitcoin Market Cycle
Published
3 days agoon
December 20, 2024By
adminWith Bitcoin now making six-figure territory feel normal and higher prices a seeming inevitability, the analysis of key on-chain data provides valuable insights into the underlying health of the market. By understanding these metrics, investors can better anticipate price movements and prepare for potential market peaks or even any upcoming retracements.
Terminal Price
The Terminal Price metric, which incorporates the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) while factoring in Bitcoin’s supply, has historically been a reliable indicator for predicting Bitcoin cycle peaks. Coin Days Destroyed measures the velocity of coins being transferred, considering both the holding duration and the quantity of Bitcoin moved.
Currently, the terminal price has surpassed $185,000 and is likely to rise toward $200,000 as the cycle progresses. With Bitcoin already breaking $100,000, this suggests we may still have several months of positive price action ahead.
Puell Multiple
The Puell Multiple evaluates daily miner revenue (in USD) relative to its 365-day moving average. After the halving event, miners experienced a sharp drop in revenue, creating a period of consolidation.
Now, the Puell Multiple has climbed back above 1, signaling a return to profitability for miners. Historically, surpassing this threshold has indicated the later stages of a bull cycle, often marked by exponential price rallies. A similar pattern was observed during all previous bull runs.
MVRV Z-Score
The MVRV Z-Score measures the market value relative to the realized value (average cost basis of Bitcoin holders). Standardized into a Z-Score to account for the asset’s volatility, it’s been highly accurate in identifying cycle peaks and bottoms.
Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score remains below the overheated red zone with a value of around 3.00, signaling that there’s still room for growth. While diminishing peaks have been a trend in recent cycles, the Z-Score suggests that the market is far from reaching a euphoric top.
Active Address Sentiment
This metric tracks the 28-day percentage change in active network addresses alongside the price change over the same period. When price growth outpaces network activity, it suggests the market may be short-term overbought, as the positive price action may not be sustainable given network utilization.
Recent data shows a slight cooling after Bitcoin’s rapid climb from $50,000 to $100,000, indicating a healthy consolidation period. This pause is likely setting the stage for sustained long-term growth and does not indicate we should be medium to long-term bearish.
Spent Output Profit Ratio
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures realized profits from Bitcoin transactions. Recent data shows an uptick in profit-taking, potentially indicating we are entering the latter stages of the cycle.
One caveat to consider is the growing use of Bitcoin ETFs and derivative products. Investors may be shifting from self-custody to ETFs for ease of use and tax advantages, which could influence SOPR values.
Value Days Destroyed
Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple expands on CDD by weighting larger, long-term holders. When this metric enters the overheated red zone, it often signals major price peaks as the market’s largest and most experienced participants begin cashing out.
While Bitcoin’s current VDD levels indicate a slightly overheated market, history suggests it could sustain this range for months before a peak. For example, in 2017, VDD indicated overbought conditions nearly a year before the cycle’s top.
Conclusion
Taken together, these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is entering the latter stages of its bull market. While some indicators point to short-term cooling or slight overextension, most highlight substantial remaining upside throughout 2025. Key resistance levels for this cycle may emerge between $150,000 and $200,000, with metrics like SOPR and VDD providing clearer signals as we approach the peak.
For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: What’s Happening On-chain: Bitcoin Update
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
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