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Bitcoin Price Hits Spooky Season Stutter as Analysts Warn of Correction

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The Bitcoin price is experiencing a cautious start to October as China’s Golden Week holiday begins on October 1.

This annual seven-day celebration, which marks China’s National Day and extends through various cultural festivities, often results in lower trading activity across global markets—including cryptocurrencies—as Chinese traders and businesses take a break.

Analysts are predicting a slow market this week and are cautioning that Bitcoin may undergo a 5-10% correction before any significant upward movement can resume.

The Bitcoin price is currently hovering around $63,980, down 0.6% in the last 24 hours, while Ethereum is trading slightly up by 0.5% at $2,643, according to CoinGecko data.

The market’s subdued performance comes amid a slew of crucial macroeconomic events lined up for the week, including the U.S. vice-presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance on October 1, the U.S. initial jobless claims report on October 3, and the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate on October 4.

Overnight trading in the crypto market has shown signs of increased volatility.

In a note sent to Decrypt, Jake Ostrovskis, an OTC trader at Wintermute, explained that “IV prints higher led by short-dated contracts – pushing VRP to 13/14pts in the majors.” In simpler terms, implied volatility (IV) for short-term options contracts is rising, which has created a volatility risk premium (VRP) in the market, suggesting that traders expect sharp price swings in the near term.

Ostrovskis noted that last Friday’s $5 billion options expiration (OPEX) could lead to heightened market fluctuations.

“We’re seeing some of this flow overnight as we approach month-end,” Ostrovskis added, pointing to shifting dynamics in both Bitcoin and Ethereum trades.

Notably, he added, spot Bitcoin trading dipped below the $65,000 mark, with the volatility surface indicating a downside bias until late October or early November. However, Ostrovskis observed that “current positioning suggests support for a post-election rally.”

Analysts from Bitfinex caution that Bitcoin’s recent gains may be hitting a short-term ceiling.

“Bitcoin has reclaimed key on-chain levels such as the Short-Term Holder Realised Price ($62,750) but there are warning signs,” they said in a note sent to Decrypt. Spot market buying has recently flattened, the analysts added, suggesting the market may have reached temporary equilibrium.

Additionally, open interest (OI) in Bitcoin futures has surged past $35 billion, a level that has historically correlated with local price peaks. While this could indicate the market overheating, Bitfinex analysts believe a modest 5-10% pullback could reset OI without derailing the overall uptrend.

Valentin Fournier, an analyst at BRN, echoes these sentiments, pointing out that Bitcoin ended September with a 3.5% loss.

“The Stochastic RSI continues to signal bullish potential, but the MACD indicates weakening momentum,” Fournier stated. He added that Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has exited overbought territory, signaling a potential correction. A dip into the $61,000-$62,500 range, he suggests, could serve as a solid foundation for a renewed uptrend.

“The U.S. unemployment rate will be a crucial market-moving event,” Fournier said. Any deviation from the expected 4.2% rate could impact market sentiment and influence risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, he added.

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Bitcoin Nears $100,000 As Trump Council Expected To Implement BTC Reserve

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Follow Nikolaus On X Here

What an enormous day it has been today.

Gary Gensler officially announced that he is stepping down from his position as Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and minutes later, Reuters reported that Donald Trump’s “crypto council” is expected to “establish Trump’s promised bitcoin reserve.” A bitcoin reserve, that would see the United States purchase 200,000 bitcoin per year, for five years until it has bought 1,000,000 bitcoin. 

Image via Julian Fahrer

Right after both of those, Bitcoin continued its upward momentum and broke $99,000, with $100,000 feeling like it can happen at any second now.

It is hard to contain my bullishness thinking about the United States purchasing 200,000 BTC per year. They essentially have to compete with everyone else in the world who is also accumulating bitcoin and attempting to front run them. There are only 21 million bitcoin and that is a LOT of demand.

To put this into context, so far this year the US spot bitcoin ETFs have accumulated a combined total of over 1 million BTC. At the time of launch the price was ~$44,000 and now bitcoin is practically at $100,000. And that’s all ETFs combined. Imagine what will happen when just one entity wants to buy a total of 1 million coins, having to compete with everyone else accumulating large amounts as well?

I mean MicroStrategy literally just completed another $3 BILLION raise to buy more bitcoin, and will continue raising until it purchases $42 billion more in bitcoin. The United States are most likely going to be purchasing their coins (if this legislation is officially signed into law) at very high prices. The demand is insane and only rising in the foreseeable future.

With two months left to go until Trump officially takes office, it remains to be seen if this bill becomes law, but at the moment things are looking really good. As Senator Cynthia Lummis stated, “This is our Louisiana Purchase moment!” and would be an absolutely historic moment for Bitcoin, Bitcoiners, and the future financial dominance of the United States of America.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.





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The Chart That Shows Bitcoin’s Bull Run Won’t Stop at $100,000

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Peak Bitcoin, hardly.

Follow Rizzo on X.

https://x.com/pete_rizzo_/

As I wrote in Forbes in 2021, the world is waking up to a new reality in regards to Bitcoin – the unlikely truth that Bitcoin’s programming has cyclical effects on its economy.

This has led to at least 4 distinct market cycles where Bitcoin has been branded a bubble, skeptics have rung their hands, and each time, Bitcoin recovers more or less 4 years later to set new all-time highs above its previously “sky-high” valuation.

I personally watched Bitcoin go from $50 to $1,300 in 2013. Then, from $1,000 to $20,000 in 2017, and I watched it go from $20,000 to $70,000 in 2021.

So, I’m just here to relate that, from my past experience, this market cycle is just heating up.

For those who have been in Bitcoin, there’s one tried-and-true and that’s Google Search. As long as I’ve been in Bitcoin, this has been the best indicator of the strength of the market.

Search is low, you’re probably in a bear market. Search heading back to all-time highs? This means new entrants are getting engaged, learning about Bitcoin, and becoming active buyers.

Remember, this is a habit change. Bitcoin HODLers are slowing shifting their assets to a wholly new economy. So, Google Trends search then, represents a snapshot of Bitcoin’s immigration. It shows how many new sovereign citizens are moving their money here.

And it’s something that all who are worried about whether bitcoin’s price topping out in 2024 should pay attention to.

Last year was the Bitcoin halving, and historically, the year following previous halvings has led to price appreciation. Maybe you’re tempted to think, “this time is different” – not me. I look at search and I see a chart that continues to accelerate into price discovery. Trust me when I say no one I know is selling bitcoin.

As shown above, buyer interest is accelerating, and these new buyers have to buy that Bitcoin from somewhere. Add nation states, US states, and a coming Trump administration set to ease the burden on the industry?

Well, I think the chart above says it all really. 

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.



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Bitcoin Nears $96K, Continuing Wild ‘Trump Trade’ Rally

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BTC traded above $95,900 in early Asian hours, less than 6% from a landmark $100,000 figure that would push it above a $2 trillion market capitalization.



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