Markets

Bitcoin ‘Uptober’ Might Finally Be Getting Started—Here’s Why

Published

2 months ago

October 4, 2024

The price of Bitcoin climbed higher Friday, rising over 3% to a daily high above $62,300 earlier after a blowout jobs report helped assuage fears of an imminent economic slowdown in the U.S.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that employers added 254,000 jobs in September, far surpassing economists’ expectations of 140,000 jobs gained. Meanwhile, employment data was revised up for July and August, painting a rosier picture of labor conditions that had supposedly weakened as the Federal Reserve began its easing campaign.

Friday’s data for September indicated that U.S. employers added the most jobs in a month since adding 310,000 in March. At the same time, the unemployment rate ticked down from 4.2% to 4.1%, coming in slightly below economists’ expectations while matching June’s unemployment figure.

While Bitcoin‘s price has cooled slightly to just above $62,000 at present, the price trend remains positive over the last day as Bitcoin starts to climb back after a rough dip to start October.

Leena ElDeeb, a research analyst at 21Shares, told Decrypt in a statement that Friday’s jobs reading is supportive of “risk assets,” such as stocks and crypto. Keeping the Federal Reserve’s easing campaign on track, she pointed to lower borrowing costs as a boon for Bitcoin’s price.

“Bitcoin and the longer tail of crypto assets are sensitive to labor market data because it influences the Fed’s decision on rate cuts, which in turn have a positive impact on Bitcoin as borrowing costs fall,” she said. “Therefore, we expect flows to start recovering following the escalation of geopolitical tensions that shook the market over the past week.”

Indeed, Bitcoin is trading hands 6% lower on the week, with markets rattled after missiles were launched at Israel from Iran.

After the episode put the so-called Uptober—a period of historic strength for Bitcoin’s price—on pause, BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF saw outflows for only the fourth time on record Thursday as Bitcoin briefly dipped below the $60,000 mark, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart. And collectively, Bitcoin ETFs have marked three straight days of outflows to start the month.

As inflation has trended towards the Fed’s 2% target, policymakers have increasingly focused on labor market conditions. The concern is that interest rates recently lowered from a two-decade high could prove too restrictive in hindsight, tipping the economy into a recession.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell poured cold water on the prospect of a jumbo-sized rate cut earlier this week. He said the U.S. central bank’s “base case” is two more rate cuts of 25 basis points through year’s end, after the Fed cut its benchmark rate by 50 basis points last month.

Faced with a strong labor reading, expectations of a 50 basis point cut were virtually erased, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Falling from a 32% chance the day before, traders penciled in a 5% chance that the Fed would call for such an outsized move.

Friday’s labor market gauge could lead to short-term inflation fears because it was so strong, Grayscale Investment’s Managing Director of Research Zach Pandl told Decrypt in a statement. But he said a backdrop of strong economic growth could support Bitcoin’s price, especially amid growing chatter about government spending following November’s presidential election.

“Conversation about Fed rate cuts and debate about larger government deficits continue alongside solid economic growth, which should be net-positive for investors’ risk appetite,” he said. “Grayscale Research expects Bitcoin to benefit in this risk-positive environment.”

Edited by Andrew Hayward

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$100

Bitcoin Nears $100,000 As Trump Council Expected To Implement BTC Reserve

Published

5 hours ago

November 22, 2024

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What an enormous day it has been today.

Gary Gensler officially announced that he is stepping down from his position as Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and minutes later, Reuters reported that Donald Trump’s “crypto council” is expected to “establish Trump’s promised bitcoin reserve.” A bitcoin reserve, that would see the United States purchase 200,000 bitcoin per year, for five years until it has bought 1,000,000 bitcoin.

Right after both of those, Bitcoin continued its upward momentum and broke $99,000, with $100,000 feeling like it can happen at any second now.

It is hard to contain my bullishness thinking about the United States purchasing 200,000 BTC per year. They essentially have to compete with everyone else in the world who is also accumulating bitcoin and attempting to front run them. There are only 21 million bitcoin and that is a LOT of demand.

To put this into context, so far this year the US spot bitcoin ETFs have accumulated a combined total of over 1 million BTC. At the time of launch the price was ~$44,000 and now bitcoin is practically at $100,000. And that’s all ETFs combined. Imagine what will happen when just one entity wants to buy a total of 1 million coins, having to compete with everyone else accumulating large amounts as well?

I mean MicroStrategy literally just completed another $3 BILLION raise to buy more bitcoin, and will continue raising until it purchases $42 billion more in bitcoin. The United States are most likely going to be purchasing their coins (if this legislation is officially signed into law) at very high prices. The demand is insane and only rising in the foreseeable future.

With two months left to go until Trump officially takes office, it remains to be seen if this bill becomes law, but at the moment things are looking really good. As Senator Cynthia Lummis stated, “This is our Louisiana Purchase moment!” and would be an absolutely historic moment for Bitcoin, Bitcoiners, and the future financial dominance of the United States of America.

This is the solution.
This is the answer.
This is our Louisiana Purchase moment!#Bitcoin2024 pic.twitter.com/RNEiLaB16U
— Senator Cynthia Lummis (@SenLummis) July 27, 2024

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

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Markets

The Chart That Shows Bitcoin’s Bull Run Won’t Stop at $100,000

Published

13 hours ago

November 21, 2024

admin

Peak Bitcoin, hardly.

Follow Rizzo on X.
https&colon;//x&period;com/pete&lowbar;rizzo&lowbar;/

As I wrote in Forbes in 2021, the world is waking up to a new reality in regards to Bitcoin – the unlikely truth that Bitcoin’s programming has cyclical effects on its economy.

This has led to at least 4 distinct market cycles where Bitcoin has been branded a bubble, skeptics have rung their hands, and each time, Bitcoin recovers more or less 4 years later to set new all-time highs above its previously “sky-high” valuation.

I personally watched Bitcoin go from $50 to $1,300 in 2013. Then, from $1,000 to $20,000 in 2017, and I watched it go from $20,000 to $70,000 in 2021.

So, I’m just here to relate that, from my past experience, this market cycle is just heating up.

For those who have been in Bitcoin, there’s one tried-and-true and that’s Google Search. As long as I’ve been in Bitcoin, this has been the best indicator of the strength of the market.

Search is low, you’re probably in a bear market. Search heading back to all-time highs? This means new entrants are getting engaged, learning about Bitcoin, and becoming active buyers.

Remember, this is a habit change. Bitcoin HODLers are slowing shifting their assets to a wholly new economy. So, Google Trends search then, represents a snapshot of Bitcoin’s immigration. It shows how many new sovereign citizens are moving their money here.

And it’s something that all who are worried about whether bitcoin’s price topping out in 2024 should pay attention to.

Last year was the Bitcoin halving, and historically, the year following previous halvings has led to price appreciation. Maybe you’re tempted to think, “this time is different” – not me. I look at search and I see a chart that continues to accelerate into price discovery. Trust me when I say no one I know is selling bitcoin.

As shown above, buyer interest is accelerating, and these new buyers have to buy that Bitcoin from somewhere. Add nation states, US states, and a coming Trump administration set to ease the burden on the industry?

Well, I think the chart above says it all really.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin Nears $96K, Continuing Wild ‘Trump Trade’ Rally

Published

1 day ago

November 21, 2024

admin

BTC traded above $95,900 in early Asian hours, less than 6% from a landmark $100,000 figure that would push it above a $2 trillion market capitalization.

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